General SVR

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Recently, colleagues announced the correct target figures and deadlines for the next stage of mobilization in Russia: an additional 800,000 troops by December 31 of this year. Indeed, this figure regularly appears during discussions within the Politburo and represents the "average number necessary" to achieve the "minimum" goal of capturing the entire territory of Donbas by the end of 2027. As we previously reported, the next stage of mobilization will be hybrid and will vary significantly from region to region. That 800,000 people, under current conditions, cannot be recruited into the army under contract by the New Year is beyond any reasonable doubt. The maximum number of new contract soldiers expected is up to 200,000 by the end of the year, and even that is considered an overly optimistic plan. Several types of innovative solutions that will be implemented could be observed as experiments in various regions of the country. As early as September 15, internet and mobile phone service disruptions are possible throughout Russia, depending on the situation and the implementation of both preparation and mobilization plans. In many regions, restrictions on movement may and most likely will be imposed on people who receive summonses for "data clarification." Summons are planned to be sent both electronically and in hard copy (paper), and there will be no duplication. This means that those who receive an electronic version will not receive a hard copy, and vice versa. Hard copy summonses may be delivered to the conscript's place of registration or work IMMEDIATELY by people accompanying the conscript. We will announce some of these "innovations" later, closer to the start of the new phase of mobilization.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Yesterday, several topics were discussed at the Politburo meeting, the central one being mobilization. During the discussion of the "Leipzig incident," the hawks confidently stated that they had not ordered such a special operation. Ultimately, the military and security leadership were given 24 hours to clarify all the circumstances that led to the "incident." Regarding mobilization, a lengthy discussion ensued, focusing on the implementation modalities for this new phase. While the necessity of mobilization was not disputed, some members of the Politburo insisted on the priority of a hybrid form of conscription. Numerous options have already been discussed, and some have already been implemented, as experiments, in a number of regions. Virtually all Russian citizens who have received orders to report for "data clarification" must be mobilized. Many are indeed being asked to sign a contract or declare themselves "volunteers," saying that at least they'll get paid that way, but regardless, mobilization will proceed as usual. It's believed that additional contract recruitment should alleviate some of the social tensions; however, everyone in the Russian leadership is convinced that the contract conscription resource is practically exhausted. We warn you again! Starting in the third ten days of August, travel bans outside Russia and bank accounts may be frozen for those subject to mobilization at any time. Whether such bans will be widespread or selective will be decided immediately before implementation.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Sergei Sobyanin's rather blunt statement about the inadmissibility of shifting the Russian economy to a war footing was perceived by many as a split in the system, or even a rebellion. The split in the Politburo between hawks and pragmatists has long existed, but this hasn't prevented them from reaching a common denominator when coordinating key decisions. The second-tier elite, unlike the Politburo, can't afford a split or a rebellion—their situation is far worse. The second and third circles of cronies, or rather, the outer circles, have been guided exclusively by the "Kremlin," represented by "Putin," for the past five to seven years, and they have no idea what path the country is taking or where it is headed. Naturally, the information they receive is significantly distorted, and each member of the second circle of officials also interprets it differently. Sobyanin understands that continued mobilization looms ahead, and the economic transition to a war footing is a logical accompaniment to the mobilization process. Being at the center of economic crises—and all economic crises in Russia, without exception, originate in Moscow—Sergei Semyonovich was one of the first to sense the depth of the catastrophe and was the first to rush to notify his superiors of what was happening, as if they couldn't figure it out without him. If ordered by the highest authorities, Sobyanin, forgetting about rebellion and dissent, will be the first to salute and more fervently promote the mobilization of the economy for military needs. Don't be confused: it's not courage that can lead to change, but fear, which sometimes forces one to take rash actions.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! For several weeks now, FSO surveys have shown a steady decline in both Putin's presidential approval rating and trust in his performance. Last week, Russians were most disappointed with the government's response to strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on targets in Russia located far from the front lines. More and more citizens are acknowledging the arrival of war in their lives. Sixty-seven percent of respondents are dissatisfied with the economic situation in Russia. Seventy-four percent of respondents report a deterioration in their personal financial situation. Most Russians do not believe they will receive financial assistance from the state in the event of damage to their property or health as a result of a possible air strike. These are perhaps the most dismal results of the FSO surveys ever conducted, but it's worth noting the trend toward further deterioration, so there's more to come. The Politburo understands the survey results, but is in no rush to change anything, at least for the better. In late August and early September, we can expect new bans and initiatives to "tighten the screws," including in the information space. Hawks consider all such innovations since the beginning of this year to be highly effective and intend to continue in this direction.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Representatives of US President Donald Trump in the negotiating teams informed their Russian counterparts of the dangers of resuming mass mobilization and warned of the possible consequences of such a decision. According to them, Trump would then be forced not only to impose additional "devastating" sanctions against Russia but also to intensify efforts to provide Ukraine with a wider range of weapons. Furthermore, their American colleagues urge their Russian counterparts to urgently persuade the Russian leadership to reach a consensus with Ukraine in peace negotiations, directly pointing to the imminent use of "new types of weapons" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (likely referring to ballistic missiles). After this, the negotiations would either be postponed indefinitely, or Russia's agreement would appear to have been made under duress, significantly reducing the scope for interpreting "victory" and increasing the cost of continuing the war. The Politburo has already begun discussing proposals and warnings, but this is not a quick process and will take time.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Following the Politburo's demand last week for complete control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner's visit to Moscow has been postponed. Now, according to the Russian leadership, Donald Trump's representatives must somehow magically persuade Volodymyr Zelenskyy to surrender Donbas by putting forward an alternative proposal. According to Russian officials, the "compromise" could be very broad: from Russia's concessions of territory in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions to the renunciation of part of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. The Politburo is also prepared to consider an option whereby, upon conclusion of a peace agreement, a "mutual final renunciation of territorial claims" would be recorded, according to which Ukraine would renounce Crimea and Donbas, and Russia would renounce the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. It's worth noting that the Russian leadership considers this option unlikely to materialize, as Ukraine has previously announced its categorical rejection of the formal alienation of territories enshrined in the Constitution.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! The events in the Russian government, by all the classic standards, have quickly passed through the stages of tragedy and comedy, and have devolved into farce. The designation of Pavel Durov, the creator of the Telegram messenger, as a terrorist and extremist by the highest decree of Rosfinmonitoring isn't even funny. Human stupidity knows no bounds, and the Russian leadership confirms this postulate with unwavering ferocity. It's difficult to say exactly what Pavel Durov did wrong, and who exactly, as the decision was news to most members of the Politburo, who weren't informed. The country's leadership's crackdown on messaging apps, video hosting sites, and social media looks like a manifestation of collective schizophrenia or an exacerbation of senile dementia, which many decision-makers genuinely suffer from or enjoy (it's hard to tell). The desire to control the internet is very similar to the last wish of Pushkin's old woman, who wanted to become mistress of the sea and have the goldfish (the internet) run her errands. Speaking of "parcels," Wildberries, in a closed letter, requested assistance from "Putin," or rather, the state, in the amount of 120 billion rubles. An internal damage assessment, as of yesterday, put the figure at 200 billion rubles. Moreover, Wildberries' "generosity" toward the affected entrepreneurs knows no bounds: 100 million rubles have been allocated for compensation, which is 1,200 times less than the requested amount, and simply seems like a mockery. Without government assistance, Wildberries itself could cease to exist, and thousands of small and medium-sized businesses will certainly go bankrupt, creating a cascade of crises. Please note: Wildberries is asking for government assistance not to pay the affected entrepreneurs, but to cover its own losses. The state will require a much larger sum of compensation for small and medium-sized businesses.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! "Disunity and vacillation" in the Russian leadership are becoming mainstream. Medvedev, defying the Politburo's decision, talks about the lack of prospects for mobilization in Russia. The FSB, contrary to the same Politburo's consensus regarding a thaw in the digital space, has published a half-hearted decision to put Pavel Durov on the international wanted list, hinting at reprisals for anyone who sponsors (pays via messenger) Telegram. Ok, ordinary citizens don't understand how one head of government can be at odds with another, but the bewilderment of the second- and third-tier elites is truly dangerous for the entire system of governance. The so-called "Putin" isn't delving into this imbalance, and isn't intervening, as there was no directive. That is, for the second- and third-circle elites, the main arbiter and core of the system has distanced himself from resolving problems within his sole control. It no longer matters what they think: "he's gotten old," "he's lost his touch," or simply, "Akella missed the mark once again"—doubts have been sown. It turns out that Prigozhin and his Wagner group and a march on Moscow aren't needed; all that's needed is a renunciation of mutual obligations by one or more groups within the Russian government, and Putin's silence, for the entire system to instantly fall apart.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Yesterday, the frenzied clown nicknamed "Funtik," Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, briefly escaping the clutches of Bacchus, unleashed yet another delusion regarding mobilization: supposedly there will be no mobilization, it's all rumors and provocations by the enemy. Probably, in a drunken stupor, the piglet forgot that the president had declared mobilization, but not cancelled it; it continues happily to this day. To call the "president" and the Politburo enemies—that's quite a bit of nerve. "Dimon" hasn't gone crazy; he's the victim of a prank, or, more accurately, the victim of ill-wishers who crafted a text for him in this manner and convinced him it was the will of the highest leadership. It's clear that Medvedev is nothing special and could be sacrificed at any moment. However, he is, at least nominally, a representative of the country's leadership and has introduced a significant imbalance into the general line being formed in the Politburo. Now, continuing the mobilization, in less than two months, will look like a split in the leadership system. Dmitry Anatolyevich has already received a reprimand for yesterday. They say he'll be in pain for some time, but a reprimand doesn't solve the main problem: how to conduct the mobilization now?

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Russian leadership is concerned about the decrease in the intensity of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on oil refineries and believes that massive combined strikes deep into Russian territory, likely scheduled for the third ten-day period of August, are being prepared as a possible cause. According to Russian intelligence, continued attacks on trade infrastructure are expected in the near future, aimed at destroying the logistics hubs of marketplaces and large companies. The challenge in preparing a response is that the main targets in Ukraine have already been hit, and the choice of new targets is limited to those that do not significantly impact the country's defense capability or economic stability. The primary response should be mobilization, or rather, a new phase of mobilization in Russia, for which everything is already in place. To its credit, extensive preparations have been made. The Politburo believes it is possible to conscript at least 350,000 people before the New Year without any particular problems and is confident that there will be no negative public response.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Two days of discussions within the Politburo were required to formulate a unified position regarding peace negotiations with Ukraine. Russia remains committed to one unshakable condition: full control over the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and the price, whatever it may be, is irrelevant. To achieve this goal, the Russian leadership is prepared to accept numerous human sacrifices, any damage to the economy and financial system, and is willing to endure any hardships associated with the accompanying crises. The interests of Russian citizens, however, are not taken into account. Any other terms of the peace agreement are open to consideration, and the Politburo is prepared to seek a compromise. This is the position conveyed to US President Donald Trump. The American leader was also informed of the intention to continue mobilization in Russia, launching a new phase on September 22 of this year. This is intended to help achieve the priority goal. If the American side is ready to discuss peace initiatives, given the Russian leadership's position, Witkoff and Kushner could visit Russia this week. If not, the Politburo sees no point in negotiations.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! The Politburo is little concerned about the 21st round of sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. The problems in the Russian economy and financial system are so severe that further sanctions from Europe will not significantly worsen them. In this case, the EU's tendency to escalate relations is disturbing, given the elusive, yet still possible, US-brokered deal with Ukraine. Yesterday, the Politburo received a new proposal from Witkoff/Kushner/Trump, outlining a plan of five main points and about a dozen interim steps that would form the basis of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, ending the armed conflict. Upon initial review, the Politburo found nothing that would fundamentally disapprove. Before the arrival of American mediators next week, the Russian leadership plans to present its vision for the possible implementation of this plan. We consider it premature to publish even a description of these proposals, recognizing the importance of ending this senseless war, which has lasted for five years and claimed over a million lives. We hope for the prudence of all participants in the negotiations and for the success of the entire undertaking.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Next week, US President Donald Trump's envoys, Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are scheduled to visit Moscow. It's already clear that significant new concessions will be demanded from the Russian leadership to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine. There's no talk of any framework for an Anchorage agreement. The "Spirit of Anchorage" is nothing more than a propaganda cliché, mercilessly exploited by Sergey Lavrov, who pretends to be a madman. The situation has truly changed, it's clear to see. The Politburo understands that the chance to end the war on acceptable terms has been missed, and the next one may be very far off, if it's even possible. Trump's representatives are pressing the "ballistics" factor, which Ukraine is expected to have as early as this fall. Then the terms of the peace agreement will be significantly worse for Russia, and the peace will be much more expensive. The Politburo itself is well aware that the outlook is bleak, and expert reports to the Russian Security Council link the acquisition of ballistic missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, assuming they are sufficient in quantity and effective, to a collapse in logistics, the Russian economy, and, consequently, the country's governance system. This weekend, the Politburo will discuss concessions and how to pass these concessions off as a "victory."

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Negotiators representing US President Donald Trump's team have proposed to the Russian leadership that they link the preparation of peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine into a "grand bargain" that would include the US-Iran negotiation process, tying everything together into a tightly knit network of mutual agreements. The proposal, for the Politburo, is accompanied by a package of initiatives and suggestions compiled by the American side. After reviewing the "plan," the Politburo concluded that the proposal is unfeasible in any form and, moreover, disadvantageous to the Russian side, as it implies obligations to third countries that, although considered "partners" and even, in some sense, "allies" of Russia, the Russian leadership believes it is impossible to guarantee their adequacy. The Politburo simply cannot understand why Trump is proposing such complex structures with patently unacceptable conditions. The further we go, the more disillusionment with Trump's performance grows among the Russian leadership, and the more hopeless they become about the possibility of a "dignified" exit not only from the war, but also from a series of worsening crises.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! At the request of the Russian side, a telephone conversation took place between US President Donald Trump and "Putin." The ongoing mutual air strikes on Russian and Ukrainian territory were the main reason for the call and the topic of discussion. Trump, with a rebuke to his Russian counterpart, noted the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian air and naval strikes against targets in Russia and those belonging to the Russian Federation. "Putin" reluctantly acknowledged the problems that provoked these strikes and noted the success of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory. After this, the parties moved on to discuss possible solutions to the current situation and concluded that an air ceasefire would be a good solution for both sides. Trump promised to assist and discuss this with Zelenskyy in the near future. However, this time, the US president did not guarantee the successful implementation of the air ceasefire idea. According to him, Zelenskyy is likely inspired by the success of air and naval strikes and will want to either build on this success or demand something in addition to the air ceasefire. The US President expressed extreme disappointment at the lack of desire to conclude peace among the Russian and Ukrainian leadership, noting the importance of concluding a comprehensive ceasefire across the entire front by November of this year.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! Several Politburo meetings were held this past weekend, and decisions were made. First, the direction of a new round of repression was approved, targeting all "patriotic" and "pro-war" citizens of the country, who lack the understanding that the line chosen by the Russian leadership is the only correct one, and that any half-step to the side is treason. The hawks are extremely displeased with the unbridled war correspondents and patriots who dared to question the correctness of the country's central leadership in general, and "Putin" in particular. Punishments will be harsh and exemplary. "Our people" must remain so until the end of the war, otherwise they will be severely punished. Second, in light of the sharp deterioration of the fuel market in Russia, a decision was approved to introduce "emergency measures," or more precisely, a fuel rationing system. The algorithms are currently being urgently refined, after which they will be tested in several regions and, with adjustments made, implemented nationwide. To paraphrase a half-dead classic: "There's no fuel, but hang in there." Thirdly, an order has been issued to urgently develop a set of measures to protect the country's economy, taking into account possible attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on major logistics hubs and areas where goods of strategic importance are concentrated.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! The Politburo is preparing a "complaint" against Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, similar to the one Ukraine recently lodged against the Republic of Belarus. The Russian leadership is convinced that Kazakhstan is allegedly providing Ukraine with covert assistance, providing its airspace, territory, and "technical support" for drone strikes against targets in Russia. Of course, the complaint will be backed up by threats, but the Politburo isn't quite sure how to formulate the statement without antagonizing Kazakhstan. Hawkish members of the Russian leadership are still reflecting on the missed opportunity to annex northern Kazakhstan in early 2022, and they hate Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev not only for his unpronounceable name but also for his "multi-vector" policy, which refuses to recognize Kazakhstan as Russia's exclusive zone of influence.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! We consider it necessary to publicize the "developments" of the Politburo hawks, which could and likely will accompany mobilization and beyond. First, they plan to block travel outside the country not only for men of draft age but also for women subject to mobilization. Subsequently, the temporary ban on travel is to be replaced by a permanent ban for all citizens, which will take the form of an "exit visa." These changes are planned to be declared a "formality" (and this will be the case at first), but over time, the ban will become more stringent, and many categories of citizens will be completely blocked from leaving the country. Second, the total internet restrictions planned for the active phase of mobilization may be extended "indefinitely." A similar experiment is already being implemented locally in small areas of sparsely populated areas of Russia, where the permanent internet shutdown has not caused any outrage. Moreover, only the "sovereign" segment of the internet will be accessible, preventing access to external websites, even with a VPN. Thirdly, a card system—or rather, a hybrid system of real physical cards and QR codes—will be used to purchase fuel throughout Russia, tickets for any mode of transport, and a number of essential goods. Hawks in the Politburo consider all of this necessary to fully control the situation in the country. It is openly acknowledged that a hybrid system will be built that will embody the "best" elements of the Soviet and North Korean systems of government.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! US President Donald Trump held an extraordinary telephone conversation with "Putin." As a reminder, this is the third phone call between the American president and "Putin" in the last 10 days, and this time, the initiative came from the US. The entire conversation was devoted to the topic of sanctions. Trump stated that he would be forced to impose a new package of "terrible" sanctions against Russia and its partners if the Russian leadership does not reach a "deal" that would end the war with Ukraine. The US President said he does not want to destroy the Russian economy, and, in his opinion, new sanctions would deal a "terrible blow" that would have the most tragic impact on the Russian economy. Despite the threats and warnings made to "Putin," the American leader assured that he has no desire to inflict such a crushing blow, but that he will be forced to do so in the very near future, despite his personal sympathy and affection for "Putin." The double listened to his colleague and attempted to make some arguments to support the idea that Russia was ready for peace, even on the most compromising terms, but that the Ukrainian leadership was doing everything it could to prevent it. However, Trump ignored these words, merely advising them to "reach an agreement quickly." The Politburo knows that the US President, in his circle of close and trusted confidants, has declared that he considers Russia a "beaten horse." This is precisely how he will now view the Russian leadership.

Dear subscribers and channel guests! The Politburo is considering a new stage of mobilization, including as a way to keep social tensions under control. Nearly all Politburo members agree that continued mobilization is necessary and inevitable, so why not combine business with pleasure? It's already clear: as the crisis unfolds, social tension will only intensify, and it's only a matter of time before it turns into street protests. As one way to address the problem, the Russian leadership is planning a hunt for male instigators and activists of protests, with even expressing disagreement with the authorities' actions or inaction on social media considered a threat. Everything has long been in place for the next stage of mobilization, and the hybrid portion of this phase is already underway in a number of regions. It's worth noting that hybrid mobilization methods are clearly insufficient, and the bulk of the activities will be carried out using traditional methods. Faith in Trump as a savior has practically disappeared among the Russian leadership, so all that remains is to continue the war, with the seizure of new Ukrainian territories, and the cost in human lives spent supporting a process that has no clear framework or goals is of no interest to anyone.