محمد حسین ابراهیمی
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پستهای کانال
| 2 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1951331726866727055?t=RQ3VhImSorSu3m8NkuStAg&s=19 | 370 |
| 3 | https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1948836551422890264?t=gltF0iTE-eq-bbxB8WntmA&s=19 | 349 |
| 4 | Read “An Open Letter to the Foreign Ministers of the World, the United Nations, and Global Public…“ by Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi on Medium: https://medium.com/@darbaghi/an-open-letter-to-the-foreign-ministers-of-the-world-the-united-nations-and-global-public-733f0d3ae1eb | 381 |
| 5 | https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1945776420577304902 | 339 |
| 6 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1945490048230580595?t=cfrnVuuK5EWp-wn6KF8kgQ&s=19 | 178 |
| 7 | 4_6034904980501043171.pdf | 194 |
| 8 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1945218655379161248?t=xet3OYVglrtkJCkG6TwXhw&s=19 | 323 |
| 9 | The attack on Iran, regardless of its military dimensions, is a civilizational challenge. We will not allow what was preserved by the blood of our forefathers to be threatened by your indifference. We are ready, not for war, but for defense. And if forced, we will transcend geography, cross borders, and our response will be heard in ways you can barely imagine. We are not the initiators, but we are the finishers. And sometimes, ending illusions is also the duty of a nation that understands the truth and does not shy away from it.
I write this letter for history; for the tomorrows that will judge these days. So that it may be said that we warned. Before the flames rise, before the smoke of folly reaches the heart of Europe, we said: there is no path but peace, mutual respect, and a return to rationality. We want dialogue instead of war. But if we receive attack instead of response, we will use every legitimate means of defense, without doubt, without leniency, without delay.
Let there be no doubt: Iran seeks peace rooted in dignity, not subjugation. If your governments still possess the will to act independently and morally, then let us begin a real dialogue—one based on mutual respect, sovereignty, and historical truth. The door to diplomacy is not closed, but it will not remain open indefinitely.
Sincerely,
Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi
Son of Great Iran | 232 |
| 10 | A Letter from Iran; To the Leaders of a Continent Twice Burned, and Destined to Burn a Third Time if It Fails to Learn
To:
* Mr. Emmanuel Macron, President of France
* Mr. Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
* Mr. Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Date: July 14, 2025
Esteemed Sirs,
You are the inheritors of a continent that was twice reduced to ashes, twice saw its cities crumble, and twice, the false pride of its politicians turned Europe into a field of death and madness. As you read this letter today, the echoes of that very same tone and that very same folly reverberate in your policies: echoing a criminal Zionist regime, blindly supporting the United States, and implicitly threatening a millennia-old civilization called Iran.
History bears witness that threats to Iran have never gone unanswered, and every aggressor, sooner or later, has been buried in their own trenches.
Colonial Britain, which once appointed kings in Tehran, is today incapable of resolving its own internal crises.
France, having turned its back on its intellectual heritage, is now grappling with social explosions in the heart of Paris.
Germany, which initiated two World Wars, now relies on energy imports just to keep its lights on.
With what perception and confidence do you, in 2025, threaten Iran? A nation that has not only never submitted to any dominance but has also turned every aggression into a nightmare for the invader.
What transpired on June 13, 2025, was not merely a military act; it was a flagrant violation of the UN Charter, an explicit declaration of aggression, and a point of no return in Western policies against our nation. Israel, this child-killing regime and state terrorist, with the full support of the United States and your shameful silence, attacked the soil of a land that thousands of years ago drafted the first declaration of human rights. And you, who should have been mediators of peace, either stood by watching or cheered them on.
Iran is not a small country to be threatened. Iran is "history," not just a geography. We have been besieged for centuries; by the Mongols, by the Ottomans, by colonialism, but we have always risen. Our enemies have been many, and all have either crumbled or been forgotten. But the name of Iran still flows on people's tongues. We do not fear threats; rather, we analyze them. And when necessary, we respond. Not with slogans, but with prudence, precision, and at a level that defines deterrence. History has taught us that whenever we have retreated, the aggressor has grown bolder; and whenever we have stood firm, the world has inevitably corrected its course.
Today, with your hypocritical policies, you are damaging not only Iran but also the dignity of your own continent. The daily slaughter in Gaza, the explosions in refugee camps, the destruction of schools and hospitals—all are unfolding before your eyes; and you, instead of crying out, respond with military aid checks. Are these the European values you preach in your philosophy classes? Or does Europe now prefer to become a well-dressed slave for the rulers of Tel Aviv, selling its historical conscience for the price of oil and dollars?
The truth is that your silence is complicity. Your support is participation in crime. And if you do not hear a warning today from an independent nation, tomorrow you will hear this warning from the streets of Paris, Berlin, or London—not from diplomats, but from the awakened people. People who, sooner or later, will ask you why their children must pay the price for crimes that you endorsed with your seal of approval.
I do not make a request of you; I issue a warning. As a son of Iran, who stands not in the shadow of foreign powers but in the light of my nation's history, I declare: continuing your current path will have consequences that are beyond your calculations. If Europe does not choose the path of rationality, fairness, and independence today, tomorrow it will only witness its own moral collapse. | 270 |
| 11 |  بدون متن... | 331 |
| 12 | At this moment, the equation is not just about missiles or negotiations—it is about identity and the future shape of regional order.
In the end, the choice lies with Tehran: to stand its ground with full force, or to redefine engagement; to resist, or to recalibrate its tactics; to safeguard its integrity, or risk slow erosion.
This decision will shape not only the fate of the Islamic Republic but also the geopolitical future of the Middle East. | 126 |
| 13 | Iran on the Edge: A Multi-Front Pressure Campaign of Triggers, Missiles, and Internal Crises
By mid-summer 2025, Iran finds itself in one of the most complex geopolitical positions it has faced in years. With Europe on the brink of activating the snapback mechanism, Israel—backed by the United States—has intensified its targeted strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Meanwhile, separatist groups have launched unprecedented operations along Iran’s borders, and the atmosphere within the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is heavily influenced by mounting political pressure.
In this multifaceted storm, a critical question looms: What strategic path will Iran choose in the face of these layered threats?
The snapback mechanism—available for activation until 18 October 2025—has effectively become a political tool for reinstating UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. While recent IAEA reports have provided the legal pretext for such a move, Tehran views these assessments as driven by “political agendas” and a departure from the agency’s neutrality.
Some senior Iranian officials have described the activation of the mechanism as a “declaration of war”—an expression that signals Tehran’s view of this process not merely as a legal dispute, but as part of a broader, engineered pressure campaign aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power.
In this context, the targeted Israeli and American attacks during June and July—ranging from Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities to military command centers—are seen as complementary tools of psychological and legal warfare. While these strikes were limited in scope, their message was unmistakable: the conflict is not confined to conventional warfare; it’s being waged in minds and strategic calculations.
These attacks form part of a broader project to construct a “new reality” intended to compel Iran to recalibrate its strategic behavior across the region.
Yet, contrary to some Western narratives, Iran is far from a passive actor. Its forceful missile response in July, striking specific targets within Israeli territory, demonstrated that Iran’s missile deterrence remains intact—and capable of reshaping the rules of engagement. The message was clear: Tehran’s capacity for retaliation is not limited to diplomatic tables—it is tangible on the battlefield.
Alongside its military capacity, Iran has intensified its diplomatic efforts. Through frequent visits to Moscow, Beijing, Baku, and Mecca, as well as initiatives to strengthen South–South diplomacy, Tehran is attempting to build a new protective shield against its growing international isolation.
This strategy—what some refer to as the “Doctrine of Survival under Maximum Pressure”—rests on three pillars: missile deterrence, active diplomacy, and internal stability.
On the domestic front, however, the threats are growing. Armed separatist groups, emboldened by financial and media support from foreign powers, are attempting to exploit ethnic and social fissures. While these movements remain scattered and limited for now, the tense atmosphere created by external attacks and ongoing economic pressure gives them the potential to evolve into broader security crises.
The classic scenario of “internal unrest, external pressure” has once again been directed at Iran.
Amid this, Iranian media and officials have accused IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi of partiality and issuing politically motivated reports—claims aimed at discrediting the legal foundation for reimposing sanctions. Casting doubt on the credibility of the IAEA’s findings may weaken the legitimacy of Western actions, but it also injects new uncertainty into the already fragile diplomatic process.
Iran is now facing a triple threat: legal pressure via the snapback mechanism, military and intelligence threats from Israel and the U.S., and internal destabilization efforts. Yet as real as these threats are, Tehran's deterrent tools remain substantial and diverse. | 154 |
| 14 |  This decision will shape not only the fate of the Islamic Republic but also the geopolitical future of the Middle East. | 223 |
| 15 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1943651572757451121?t=gFiGx3jFi1h3lJXkGS2Eow&s=19 | 246 |
| 16 |  In the Name of Almighty God
To: General Yoav Gallant, Former Minister of War of the Zionist Regime
From: Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi Darbaghi – Middle East Analyst
Date: July 11, 2025
Dear General Gallant,
Former Minister of War of the Zionist Regime,
I have read your letter. If you hoped that your threatening tone would prompt a retreat, let me remind you that the Iranian nation — with a civilization over six thousand years old, and thousands of years of experience in resisting invaders — has never surrendered, and will never surrender, to anyone or anything.
You spoke of a "ring of fire" encircling you. But let us be honest: that ring was not created by us — it was forged by your own hands and those of your predecessors. Every bomb dropped on the children of Gaza, every home flattened in Beirut and Damascus, every wall built to imprison the Palestinian people in their own land — all of these were sparks that ignited this fire. And now, you fear the very heat of the blaze you yourselves set.
You speak of "flawless intelligence" and "perfect operations." But is this the same intelligence that failed to foresee the events of October 7 — the day your regime suffered its most devastating security failure in history? Is this the same military force that has repeatedly failed to protect its bases from growing and precise retaliations in the north, the south, and deep within your occupied territories?
General Gallant,
You are not a commander — you are merely a guard at the gates of a crumbling structure, whose pillars have been eroded by lies, violence, and occupation. Those you label as enemies are in truth wounded nations, rising not at Iran's command, but from years of humiliation, injustice, and bloodshed. You fear the resistance because, for the first time in your regime’s history, you face adversaries who fight not for land or wealth — but for human dignity and divine values. And such adversaries cannot be defeated with F-35s, nor silenced with sanctions and cowardly assassinations.
If you truly seek peace, then understand that a lasting peace begins with justice, respect, and restoring rights to their rightful owners — not with fighter jets, threats, or the patronizing tone of a man who writes like a conqueror but trembles at an uncertain future.
And if you have come to threaten — know this:
We know threats.
We have endured coups, wars, economic blockades, and the assassination of our best minds — and we have always stood with dignity.
The Iranian people are not strangers to pain, but they have never bowed to oppression.
Today, Iran’s people are the heirs of a civilization that has risen from the depths of history and walks into the future with willpower — not by surrendering to occupation, nor by fearing tanks and missiles.
And you, General Gallant, must know this:
True power does not come from the barrel of a gun. It comes from the faith of a nation that has known how to stand for thousands of years.
With respect — not to you, but to the truth, and to the free peoples of the world,
Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi Darbaghi
Middle East Analyst | 422 |
| 17 | https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1942953275029926269?t=pRIIp0LReZuCqlzwOJ7WeQ&s=19 | 1 |
| 18 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1942444830891598150?t=NmXcl_yrnLTbMYniwQSQUA&s=19 | 462 |
| 19 |  https://x.com/hazratajal/status/1941550866710032592?t=4J4Cmow0FvsRZQtAK-YfDA&s=19 | 480 |
| 20 | 📰 کودتا در نیمهشب
🕯 تحلیل سیاسی با نگاهی از تهران | ۳ ژوئیه ۲۰۲۵
در میانهی سکوتی که خاورمیانه را چون مه غلیظی دربر گرفته، جنگی پایان نیافته، فعلاً متوقف شده است. انفجارها خاموش شدهاند اما صداها هنوز در ذهن منطقه میپیچد. جنگی که با پهپاد و موشک آغاز شد، اما بهنظر میرسد از ابتدا نه بر سر اورانیوم غنیشده بود، نه سانتریفیوژهای نطنز و فردو. نام این رویارویی، به گمان نگارنده، کودتا در نیمهشب است. نه کودتایی کلاسیک با تانک در خیابان، بلکه کودتایی ترکیبی، سایهدار، و چندلایه علیه یک نظام سیاسی ریشهدار در قلب ایران.
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ژوئن: ماه خیزش آتش و فولاد
از ۱۳ ژوئن که آتش نخستین موشکها در آسمان ایران و اسرائیل شعله کشید، تحولی آغاز شد که بیش از آنکه نظامی باشد، ژئوپلیتیکی و ذهنی بود. اسرائیل زیرساختهای هستهای ایران را نشانه گرفت و تهران، بنادر و فرودگاههای حیفا و تلآویو را در سیطره پهپادها و موشکها آورد.
اما آنچه بازی را تغییر داد، ۲۲ ژوئن بود. ورود مستقیم بمبافکنهای B-2 آمریکایی به خاک ایران و هدفگیری فردو، نطنز و اصفهان، نه تنها نظم منطقه را بر هم زد، بلکه نقاب از چهره دیپلماسی آمریکایی کنار زد. اینجا، برای نخستین بار، ایالات متحده از نقش حامی بیرون آمد و به جای مأمور پشتیبانی، در نقش جلاد وارد صحنه شد.
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وقتی هدف، فقط سانتریفیوژ نیست
برخی باور دارند هدف، همان تأسیسات زیرزمینی بود. اما آنچه رخ داد، چیزی فراتر از یک عملیات نظامی بود؛ تلاشی برای شکستن ستون فقرات یک نظام سیاسی.
تهدید به ترور رهبر ایران، حرف از «Decapitation Strategy»، حذف فرماندهان سپاه و مهندسان هستهای، گواه این است که جنگ، طراحی شده بود نه برای توقف غنیسازی، بلکه برای فروپاشی یک ساختار. جنگی برای تغییر، نه تعلیق.
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محاسبه غلط غرب: مردم ایران کودتا نمیکنند
غرب، بار دیگر مرتکب همان خطایی شد که در دمشق، بیروت و بغداد کرده بود: این تصور که بمباران یک ملت، میتواند او را علیه حاکمانش بشوراند. اما بر خلاف تخیلات آزمایشگاهی اتاق فکرها در واشنگتن و تلآویو، مردم ایران—همان که درگیر گرانی و محدودیتاند—در لحظه تهدید خارجی، پشت کشورشان ایستادند. کودتای نرم فروپاشید، چون ستون پنجم اجتماعی فعال نشد.
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شلیک به العدید: نقطهی چرخش بازی
اما نقطهی عطف، نه در فردو که در قطر بود. بامداد ۳ جولای، ایران با دقتی بیسابقه، پایگاه العدید در قطر را—مرکز فرماندهی عملیات آمریکا در خلیج فارس—هدف قرار داد.
این حمله، نهفقط نظامی، بلکه بیانیهای ژئوپلیتیکی بود:
> «ما نهفقط آماده دفاعیم، بلکه بلدیم درد را به صاحب قدرت هم بچشانیم.»
ساعاتی پس از آن، آتشبس اعلام شد. خاموشی، ناگهانی و معنادار بود. گویی در واشنگتن، کسی به نقشه پایگاههای دورتر آمریکا نگاه انداخته بود؛ از جمله دیگو گارسیا. فهمیده بودند که اگر جنگ ادامه یابد، میتواند از خلیجفارس به اقیانوس هند کشیده شود—و این دیگر بازی نبود؛ فاجعه بود.
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بازی نتانیاهو: جنگ برای بقا
در این میانه، نمیتوان نقش نتانیاهو را نادیده گرفت. مردی که بر لبه تیغ بحران داخلی، پروندههای فساد، و تظاهرات خیابانی ایستاده بود. برای او، جنگ با ایران نه ابزار امنیت، بلکه اهرم سیاست بود.
هر چه بحران داخلی شدیدتر شد، لزوم جنگ خارجی بیشتر حس شد. او دنبال دشمنی میگشت که جامعهاش را منسجم کند، و چه دشمنی بهتر از جمهوری اسلامی ایران؟ اگر در تهران، موشکها بهدنبال بازدارندگی بودند، در بیتالمقدس، جنگ ابزاری برای پیروزی در صندوق رأی بود.
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وقفه یا سکوت پیش از توفان؟
جنگ، فعلاً متوقف شده. اما منطقه روی مین راه میرود.
بورس تهران ریزش کرده، ۲۱ استان آسیب دیدهاند، و سایه جنگ هنوز روی اقتصاد سنگینی میکند.
لبنان، سوریه، یمن و عراق همه منتظر یک جرقهاند.
تلفات انسانی و روانی، زخمیست که تا سالها ماندگار خواهد بود.
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واپسین واژه: خاورمیانه در تب تصمیم
این وقفه، میتواند آغاز گفتوگو باشد یا فاصلهای کوتاه برای تنظیم آتش دقیقتر. اما هرچه هست، دیگر مثل قبل نخواهد بود. توازنها بههم خورده. غرب دانست که ایران، حتی در اوج تحریم و حمله، هنوز قدرت بازدارندگی دارد.
و تهران دانست که بازی از همیشه جدیتر است. مسئله، فقط هستهای نیست؛ مسئله، ذات نظام، جایگاه منطقهای، و شالوده نظم آینده خاورمیانه است.
این، همان کودتا در نیمهشب بود؛ بیسروصدا، اما ژرفتر از هر انفجار.
https://t.me/iranimiddleeast | 643 |
