Macro Trader

2) 작년 한 해, 중앙은행의 금리인상이 채권 보유자에게 얼마나 큰 손실을 입혔는지 가격을 보면 직관적으로 알 수 있지, 자, 그럼 지난 주 고용 이후 채권의 가격 반응을 살펴보자.

1) 고용 지표가 예상을 큰 폭으로 상회했는데, 채권 시장이 얼마나 충격을 받았을까? 주로 주식을 하는 친구들이 많으니, 채권의 가격으로 보여줄게. 채권 입장에선 큰 악재였지, 중앙은행이 금리를 더 올려야 한단 선고였으니까. 먼저 정책금리와 가장 민감한 2년물 국채 선물 가격을 보여줄게.

잠 안든 친구들 위해, 뮤트 후 채권 이야기 요 몇일한걸 풀어볼게.

자니? 🛌

Bottom-line: 투자자들은 이제 더 이상 중앙은행과 싸우지 않으려는 듯 하며, 더 높은 최종 정책금리와 인플레이션 통제의 어려움에 동의하려는 모습임. 이 경우 현재 10년물 국채 금리가 2년물 국채 금리보다 낮은 수익률 역전 현상은 더욱 심해질 것임. 장 중 한 때 -85.8bps의 역전폭을 보이며 1980년 이후 최대를 기록했지만, -100bps의 국채 수익률 역전도 눈 앞에 놓일 가능성이 있음. 특히 만기가 긴 채권에 대한 강한 수요가 이를 더 빨리 도달시킬 수도 있을 것임. Investors are buying into the new Fed narrative. That should keep the US yield curve on the path to more inversion. Disinflation was introduced as a new buzzword last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And it was reiterated this week too. He also told investors that while prices have cooled, the road to 2% inflation is set to be bumpy and long. And finally, investors are no longer fighting the Fed’s terminal rate view, or further curve inversion. The spread between 2s10s has narrowed to -85.8bps today, the tightest since the 1980s after breaching the December tight at -85.2bps. The market likes round figures and -100bps is likely in the cards. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets think so too. Today’s course of events are likely to lend to more flattening. Weekly jobless claims remained below 200,000 today -- confirming the labor market is strong. Plus, Japan continues to buy foreign bonds in 2023. And buying from the region is getting bigger. After buying ~750 billion yen of foreign bonds in January, they purchased a net of ~1130 billion yen already in February, according to Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday. That could easily spark strong investor demand for today’s $21 billion 30-year Treasury offering at 1pm NYT.

US equity futures nudged higher while the dollar and yields fell slightly after initial jobless claims rose for the first time in six weeks. Continuing claims also ticked up to 1.688mln from a revised 1.650mln. 🎈

SMIC 실적을 통해서도 일본과 네덜란드가 제재에 동참하는데 대한 우려가 있음.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. is likely to have expanded revenue at the slowest quarterly pace in more than two years, hurt by US sanctions as well as faltering electronics demand. The Shanghai-based company is grappling with curbs on its ability to import American technology, particularly as US allies Japan and the Netherlands are expected to join those restrictions soon. More broadly, global chipmakers including larger rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have experienced significant cutbacks in demand for smartphone and computing chips. 👮🏻‍♂️

중국에 대한 제재가 심해지면 장비를 들여오지 못할 것을 걱정하면서 중국에서 예상보다 많은 장비를 가져감.

Tokyo Electron Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the year after Chinese chipmakers moved up deliveries ahead of a possible crackdown on exports of Japanese production equipment. The Tokyo-based supplier to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel Corp. lifted its forecast for the year to March above expectations to ¥580 billion ($4.4 billion). A number of companies in China are speeding up deliveries and investment plans, fearful of not being able to secure equipment as international trade walls rise, Tokyo Electron executives said on earnings calls Thursday. 🚢

Tokyo Electron Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the year after Chinese chipmakers moved up deliveries ahead of a possible crackdown on exports of Japanese production equipment. The Tokyo-based supplier to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel Corp. lifted its forecast for the year to March above expectations to ¥580 billion ($4.4 billion). A number of companies in China are speeding up deliveries and investment plans, fearful of not being able to secure equipment as international trade walls rise, Tokyo Electron executives said on earnings calls Thursday.

기업 실적에서 찾아볼 수 있는 거시적 함의를 정리해볼까함.

소비자심리지수와 뉴욕 타임즈 주가(2/8 실적 발표)

가장 줄이기 쉬운 것이 자잘한 구독료, 또한 형편이 나아지면 곧바로 생각나는 것이 소소한 행복.

New York Times Co. reported fourth-quarter sales and profit that beat analysts’ expectations, helped by accelerating growth of its digital subscriptions and bundle offerings. The publisher added 240,000 digital subscribers in the fourth quarter, compared with 180,000 in the third. New York Times shares rose as much as 13%, the biggest intra-period jump since August 2021. 🧑🏻‍💻

배달료가 올라가면 딜리버리보다 픽업 서비스를.

Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 11%, the biggest intraday decline since June, after the food delivery firm failed to offer an outlook for gross merchandise value for 2023, adding to investor concerns over its growth path at a time when consumers around the globe are pressured by high inflation. Like its peers including Just Eat and Deliveroo, its sales also missed estimates in the fourth quarter. 🛵