Labyrinth Capital
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labyrinthcapital.co.uk Keeping you informed only on the most important macroeconomic news. NFA
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پستهای کانال
⚠️Confirmed oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to ~4 MMbpd on a trailing 10-day average basis.
Down from ~15 MMbpd in late-June and at the lowest level since late-May.
labyrinthcapital.co.uk
| 2 |  +1Forward guidance was introduced around 2008 because rates were at the zero lower bound.
Since 2008, markets have been swimming in extremely cheap credit which was exacerbated during COVID. Thats where we witnessed one of the greatest asset bubbles in history where digital pictures of penguins were selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars and crypto projects were flying.
The fact Warsh and likely more members are pivoting back to pre-2008 conditions should give everyone the impression of how rates will function from now on. Study 40 year interest rate cycles and you'll come to the conclusion the era of cheap credit is over.
labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 240 |
| 3 | Once again its importance to emphasise the policy pivot from Warsh. This expectation from Citadel echoes his comments from last week:
Fed's Chair Warsh: Forward guidance is not the right policy for the current moment.
Note that Warsh is only the speaker of 12 FOMC members, he holds one vote and one vote alone. His idea to pivot how the Fed manages its forward guidance and reliance on the rate futures market is only so far likened by himself.
Importantly, Wednesday may reveal which Fed members are on the side of Warsh and who are not (if not Wednesday then next week at FOMC minutes).
Ultimately, if more members align with Warsh's vision, it likely rules out the run-up to FOMC as a trading period - and will also encourage far more volatility in conditions.
labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 197 |
| 4 | JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week in a surprise move.
@WatcherGuru | 152 |
| 5 |  🔔Key Events This Week.
☄️Most volatile day:
Wednesday: US FOMC POLICY MEETING
Thursday: UK BOE POLICY MEETING
Friday: JAPAN BOJ POLICY MEETING
Heavy hitting central bank action after midpoint in the week. FOMC likely to not cut interest rates, however, be wary because Warsh made it clear in his testification before the house last week that forward guidance and affirming the futures market is what he wishes to change. ie: theres a small likelihood they do raise rates.
Friday's BOJ rate decision also takes on greater importance because of what is happening in the Japanese sovereign debt markets. Across the curve the cost of their debt is out of control. Japan is having increasing difficulty with controlling its long end of the curve. Intervention has been persistent over the past 12 months. Likely that they signal more rate hikes because of rising price pressures, but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The reason Japan is so important is because of its position as a huge buyer of American debt.
labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 281 |
| 6 | US PPI MOM ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST 0%, PREVIOUS 1.1% | 421 |
| 7 | BREAKING: US PPI YOY ACTUAL 5.5% (FORECAST 6.2%, PREVIOUS 6.5% | 424 |
| 8 | ⚠️Traders reduce wagers on Fed rate increase this month. | 462 |
| 9 | Cold print will help calm the hawkish market tilt to the monetary policy outlook. | 448 |
| 10 | Triple 🔴 | 449 |
| 11 | US CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 2.9%) | 439 |
| 12 | BREAKING: US CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.5% (FORECAST 3.8%, PREVIOUS 4.2%) | 434 |
| 13 | US CPI MOM ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.5%) | 399 |
| 14 |  بدون متن... | 417 |
| 15 |  🔔Key Events This Week.
☄️Most volatile day:
Tuesday: US CPI + Warsh Testifies
Wednesday: US PPI + Warsh Testifies
US CPI and PPI to likely reflect continuing stagflation. Core on both holds more weight to reflect broad based inflation minus energy.
New Fed Chair Warsh is testifying before the house over 2 days. Will likely talk about monetary policy, forward guidance changes, framework for the Fed's balance sheet, changes to how the Fed operates and more. This will likely swing bond market heavily, so defacto every market.
Q3 2026 Report to be released this week.
labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 478 |
| 16 | ⚠️🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump: Reinstating the Iranian blockade.
http://labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 390 |
| 17 | ⚠️🇮🇷Trump on Iran and Oil: We're taking over the strait
"Iran has nothing"
labyrinthcapital.co.uk | 429 |
| 18 | ⚠️🇮🇷JUST IN - Iran says Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice — Reuters | 470 |
| 19 | ⚠️Fed: Most participants pointed to scenarios in which inflation would remain elevated due to AI-related demand, the Middle East conflict, or tariffs. | 684 |
| 20 | ⚠️ Fed Minutes: In such scenarios almost all of those participants indicated some policy firming would likely be warranted. | 629 |
