Paradigm Edge

Paradigm Session Recap - August 4th • BTC is up 1.23% to $64,239; DVOL is slightly down to 34.06 • ETH is up 0.87% to $1,875; DVOL is down to 47.89 Both IV and realized volatility keep trending down on crypto majors while equity indexes bounce to new ATHs ETH flows featured mostly bear risk reversals for September and December's quarterly expiries, totaling 16.5k contracts • Spot Brent fell another 6% to $78.48, closing below $80 for the first time since July 10th • Nasdaq is up 2.59% at 26,584.99 • S&P is up 1.79% to a new all-time high of 7,736.52

Paradigm Session Recap - August 3rd • BTC closed the day flat at $63,435; DVOL is slightly down to 34.81 • ETH is down 1.37% to $1,859; DVOL is slightly down to 49.23 The IV Rank & Percentile for both majors keep trending lower, BTC sits at IV Rank 3.4 and IV Percentile 3, while ETH sits at IV Rank 4.7 and IV Percentile 3.8 The $70k call strike saw 3.3k new contracts opened today, the biggest change by any strike, with the bulk of it for the quarterly expiry on September 25th The 2026 window is closing for the Clarity Act's approval as the US Senate leaves for recess on August 11th, and there is still a deadlock over ethics. The prediction markets' odds of approval in 2026 sit at 27%. • Spot Brent closed down 5.67% at $83.10 • Nasdaq is up 2.13% at 25,913.90 • S&P is up 1.48% at 7,600.50

Paradigm Session Recap - July 30 • BTC is up 1.27% at $64,754; DVOL is down 2pp at 35.52 • ETH is up 1.36% at $1,933; DVOL is down 1.5pp at 50.9 The frontend of the curve got crushed by as much as 10v after the FOMC, with tomorrow's July 31 expiry falling 10.1v for BTC and 13.2v for ETH. The curve is now in contango from the Aug 7 expiry. Tomorrow's expiry is a big one, $11.99B of BTC OI and $1.66B of ETH OI, 33.4% and 29% of the respective totals. Roughly 91% of BTC and 81% of ETH's OI are OTM and will probably expire worthless. 78.1% of BTC's OI is at least 5% OTM while 64.9% of ETH's is 5% or more OTM. The IV Rank % Percentile for both majors are in extremely low values: • BTC sits at IV Rank 4.4 and IV Percentile 5.2 • ETH sits at IV Rank 7 and IV Percentile 5.5 ETH's tape had interesting positioning today as the two biggest positions are a $35.7M put bought for August's monthly expiry and a $13.5M bull call spread for August 7. There was some relief on the market after the news of Citadel acquiring Leopold's Situational Awareness public equities book. The VIX is down over 4 points today after the relief in AI-related stocks and the fear of the FED hiking passed • Spot Brent is flat at $87.01 • Nasdaq is up 2.78% at 25,122.18 • S&P is up 1.66% at 7,473.63

Paradigm Session Recap - July 29 • BTC is flat at $63,881; DVOL is also flat at 37.48 • ETH is flat at $1,903; DVOL is also flat at 52.61 The FED kept rates unchanged on a 9-3 vote. It was the first time since since 2016 that were three dissents in the same direction The bond market didn't like Warsh's press conference as the 30Y yields went up 0.061 points during the interview, now at 5.212%, the highest since 2007. The 10y is up 0.073 points in the day, nearing its 1-year highs at 4.687% Meta tumbles 9% in the afterhours after missing earnings forecast • EPS $6.18 vs. $7.14 y/y - 13% below expectations • Revenue $60.80B, est. $60.24B The KOSPI closed -5.98% day, now 40% off the highs as the country's broad deleverage continues • Spot Brent is up 4.25% to $87.91 • Nasdaq is down 1.744% at 24,442.94 • S&P is down 1.52% at 7,316.15 Despite everything that is happening in the traditional markets, major crypto asstes' volatility have been non-existent while memory stocks such as Micron and Sandisk are trading on over 100% realized vol It is still not clear if crypto's recent lack of volatility and outperformance against Trad markets is relative strengh or just a lag before following it downward

Paradigm Session Recap - July 28 • BTC is flat at $63,880; DVOL is also flat at 37.25pp • ETH spot closed at $1,921; up 1.58%; DVOL is up 1pp at 52.9 Frontend volatility in BTC and ETH is trading rich relative to the 1M tenor, with the term structure inverted through late July and early August as markets price in uncertainty around tomorrow's FOMC rate decision. Beyond the 28AUG expiry, the curve normalizes into contango. The KOSPI closed another -10% day, now more than 35% off the highs SK Hynix missed earnings by ~5% • SK HYNIX 2Q SALES 79.32T WON, EST. 83.85T WON • SK HYNIX 2Q OPER PROFIT 60.54T WON, EST. 64.22T WON • Spot Brent closed 3.68% down to $82.02 • Nasdaq is down 0.22% at 24,876.91 • S&P is up 0.21% at 7,428.78

Paradigm Session Recap - July 27 • BTC spot closed at $63,820; 2.48% down; DVOL is flat at 37pp • ETH spot closed at $1,890; 3.34% down; DVOL is flat at 51.9pp Today two factors scared the market: • Rate hike odds on FedWatch are at 38%, the higher it has been in a long time • News on China's first mass-production of DUV chipmaking tools were responsible for tanking the memory big names such as: ASML, AMD, Micron and Sk Hynix all went down 7%+ CXMT's IPO was the most successful IPO of the year at China, raising U$8.6b and closed the day up 466%, becoming the largest public company at the Shangai Stock Exchange • Spot Brent closed 8.94% down to $84.97 • Nasdaq is down 0.18% • S&P is flat

Paradigm Session Recap – July 23 Spot is down, with BTC at $64,900 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Tesla shed $214.5B in market capitalization, marking the largest one-day market cap loss in the company's history. Intel shares rallied in after-hours trading following stronger-than-expected quarterly results. BTC put skew widened while ETH skew flipped back to puts. Flows were mixed, with BTC 24 Jul puts lifted and ETH 31 Jul calls and call spreads bought.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 22 Spot is down, with BTC at $66,100 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Treasury yields continued to climb alongside oil prices, pushing the 10-year yield near its 2026 intraday high of 4.69%. Alphabet reported 24% revenue growth in Q2, driven by its cloud business, but free cash flow turned negative as AI data center spending accelerated. Shares traded lower after hours. BTC vols were largely unchanged while ETH skew flipped to calls. Flows featured the 7 Aug 70k call again, alongside the 25 Dec 58k put at 43v. ETH also saw OTM activity, with the 25 Dec 3.5k trading at 58v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 21 Spot is up, with BTC at $66,600 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Stock indexes moved higher as chip stocks rebounded. Coinbase shares rallied after the Clarity Act cleared a key hurdle, with the White House and a group of senators led by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R., Wyo.) and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) reaching an agreement on an ethics provision that had stalled the bill. Fed Funds Futures now price a 25% probability of a rate hike at next week's FOMC. ATMs were again largely unchanged while put skew continued to ease. BTC flows featured calls rolled and outright buying, including the 7 Aug 70k bought at 38v. ETH flows were further out the curve, with the 28 Aug 2.5k lifted at 53v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 20 Spot is up, with BTC at $65,300 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Q2 earnings season continues this week, with results due from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. It is a light week for macro data, and no Fed speakers are scheduled as policymakers are in the blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting. ATM term structures were once again largely unchanged while ETH skew eased. BTC flows featured a Dec 56k/40k put spread sold, while ETH 7 Aug 2.1k calls were lifted. SOL also saw notable activity, with the 31 Jul 85 outright call bought and a 31 Jul 73/77/83 seagull traded.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 16 Spot is down, with BTC at $63,700 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Federal Reserve should raise rates to combat elevated inflation, signaling a potential dissent if the FOMC holds rates steady later this month. ATMs were largely unchanged while ETH skew eased. BTC flows featured puts lifted across the curve, from the 20 Jul 62.5k at 33v to the 25 Sep 50k at 49v. ETH flows, meanwhile, featured calls lifted, including the 31 Jul 2.3k at 54v and the 7 Aug 2.1k at 48v. There were also a few HYPE prints such as the 28 Aug 52 put and the 31 Jul 80 call.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 15 Spot is flat, with BTC at $64,700 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. ASML reported record quarterly orders and raised its sales guidance. Shares in Amsterdam rallied before trimming gains as U.S. semi stocks sold off. Following softer inflation prints, Fed Funds Futures now lean toward a hold at the 29 Jul FOMC. Fronts are down slightly and put skew eased. BTC flows featured the 31 Jul 70k/72k call spread lifted in 10,000x, while the ETH 28 Aug 2.4k call was sold. There were also notable SOL and XRP prints. A strong session with $1.8B traded via Paradigm, totaling 54% market share.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 14 Spot is up, with BTC at $64,900 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Treasury yields slipped after June inflation came in at 3.5%, cooler than expected. During congressional testimony, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cautioned that one month of softer inflation data does not mean "mission accomplished." Fronts and put skew eased. Flows featured a 15 Jul/17 Jul calendar and the 31 Jul 60k put lifted at 39v. The 24 Jul 1875 straddle was bought at 46v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 13 Spot is down, with BTC at $62,200 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. After soaring on Friday, SK Hynix shares closed down 15% in Seoul, their steepest decline on record. U.S. chip stocks followed, weighing on the Nasdaq. Fed Funds Futures now price a 40% probability of a rate hike by month-end. Tomorrow brings bank earnings, June CPI, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's monetary policy testimony before the House. Warsh is scheduled to testify before the Senate on Wednesday. Vols were largely unchanged. Flows featured puts lifted, with the 17 Jul 62k at 39v and the 31 Jul 1550 at 57v. The SOL 15 Jul 76/77 strangle was sold.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 9Spot is up, with BTC at $63,100 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. SK Hynix priced its American depositary receipt offering at $149, raising $26.5B. The offering was more than seven times oversubscribed, with trading set to begin on the Nasdaq on Friday.Fron ts are down a couple vols. BTC flows were mixed. ETH flows featured the 24 Jul 1550/1900 risk reversal lifted at 56v/45v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 8 Spot is down, with BTC at $62,100 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. Minutes from the June FOMC meeting showed officials agreed that rates would need to move higher if inflation remains elevated. In addition to the pass-through of tariffs and higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, the minutes also cited stronger AI-related demand as a source of price pressures. Vols were largely unchanged. BTC flows featured a 31 Jul put spread lifted alongside a couple of call ratios. The ETH 25 Dec 2k call was sold at 54v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 7 Spot is down, with BTC at $63,400 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. SpaceX fell 6.8%, closing below its June 12 IPO opening price of $150 for the first time. Samsung shares also dropped nearly 7%, despite reporting a broadly positive business update and projecting a 19-fold increase in quarterly earnings. ATMs and skew were largely unchanged. Flows featured another 31 Jul risk reversal. ETH flows were muted. The 31 Jul 1.15 XRP straddle was sold at 50v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 6 Spot is up, with BTC at $64,000 and ETH at $1,800 as of this writing. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the risks facing the Federal Reserve have "completely flipped around" over the past year. Tomorrow, SpaceX will officially join the Nasdaq-100 Index. Wednesday brings the release of the June 16–17 FOMC minutes, while SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed shares begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. BTC fronts eased. Flows featured a 17 Jul condor sold and the 31 Jul 52k/72k risk reversal trading at 51v/35v. The ETH 31 Jul 1.8k straddle was sold at 49v.

Paradigm Session Recap – July 2 Spot is up, with BTC at $61,300 and ETH at $1,700 as of this writing. The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, down from May and roughly half the 115,000 consensus forecasted. Fed Funds Futures are now split between a rate hike and a hold by September. Fronts continued to ease while skew was largely unchanged. Flows featured a 17 Jul condor and the 1.6k put lifted at 55v.