Paradigm Edge

Paradigm Session Recap – June 1 Spot is down, with BTC at $71,100 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO expected this fall. Strategy sold 32 BTC last week, its first bitcoin sale since late 2022. This week features several Fed speakers and May nonfarm payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. BTC fronts are up a couple vols while ETH fronts are down. Both majors remain put skew. Flows featured the 26 Jun 85k call sold at 36v and the 12 Jun 70k put lifted at 37v.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 28 Spot is down, with BTC at $73,400 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. Anthropic raised a $65B Series H at a $965B post-money valuation. Stocks climbed, with all three major indexes closing at record highs. April PCE inflation came in slightly below forecasts. Fronts retraced a couple vols while skew was largely unchanged. Flows featured a 1 Jun BTC call condor and the 5 Jun 2k put sold at 41v.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 27 Spot is down, with BTC at $74,400 and ETH at $2,000 as of this writing. The streak of spot ETF outflows continues. On Friday, $6.3B in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of 75k, alongside $1.3B in ETH options with a max pain price of 2.2k. Fronts and mids climbed slightly, with BTC's now in the mid 30s and ETH's in the high 40s. Flows featured the 26 Jun 70k put lifted at 38v and a 31 Jul 1.6k/2.7k risk reversal.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 26 Spot is down, with BTC at $75,800 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Stocks closed higher after the long weekend, with Micron Technology surpassing a $1T market cap. ETH and SOL treasury companies Sharplink and Forward Industries are set to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes in June. Fronts bounced back a couple vols. Both majors remain put skew. BTC flows featured a put condor sold alongside OTM calls lifted (25 Sep 160k at 50v).

Paradigm Session Recap – May 25 Spot is flat, with BTC at $77,200 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. US markets were closed today for Memorial Day, while Hong Kong and the UK also observed market holidays. This week features retailer earnings and April PCE inflation on Thursday. Consensus expects headline inflation to tick higher on energy, though without signs of broader pressure. Fronts are down slightly and put skew eased. Flows featured a custom 29 May spread, with the 76k put bought at 30v, the 74k put sold at 36v, and the 72k put sold at 43v. ETH flows were muted.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 21 Spot is flat, with BTC at $77,500 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2B in outflows over the last five sessions as macro risks build and basis remains suppressed. Tomorrow, $1.5B in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of 78.5k, alongside $275M in ETH options with a max pain price of 2.2k. Fronts and mids eased a couple vols while backs were largely unchanged. Both majors remain put skew. BTC flows featured a 25 May 77k/75k/73k/71k put condor, while ETH saw a 25 May 2.15k put trade.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 20 Spot is up, with BTC at $77,600 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Nvidia reported record-high sales and earnings while also raising guidance for the current quarter. Shares initially rallied before retracing in after-hours trading. BTC fronts eased into the low 30s while backs held in the mid 40s. Flows featured calls rolled from May into June. ETH flows were muted.

Paradigm Session Recap – May 20 Spot is up, with BTC at $77,600 and ETH at $2,100 as of this writing. Nvidia reported record-high sales and earnings while also raising guidance for the current quarter. Shares initially rallied before retracing in after-hours trading. BTC fronts eased into the low 30s while backs held in the mid 40s. Flows featured calls rolled from May into June. ETH flows were muted.

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Paradigm Flows – March 26 BTC flows featured an Apr put spread lifted (dealers sold) and a put calendar bought (dealers bought). ETH flows were muted and mixed.

Paradigm Flows – March 25 A 1,000x BTC call calendar printed, besides a June 40k / 110k strangle and December calls.

Paradigm Flows – March 24 BTC flows were mixed and muted while ETH trades featured a noteworthy December Risk Reversal, 1.7k / 3.2k.

Paradigm Flows – March 23 BTC flows featured puts rolled and a put spread bought. There was also a condor lifted. ETH flows were muted today.

Paradigm Flows – March 18 BTC flows featured bear risk reversals in Apr (62k vs 85k, 58k vs 90k) and Dec (62k vs 90k). ETH flows were mixed with outrights lifted and strips sold again.

Paradigm Flows – March 17 BTC flows were pulverized and mixed, with puts rolled and OTM call spreads lifted. ETH trading was concentrated around the 2.3k strike, printing a straddle and a call strip. Dealers bought both structures.