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EL NINO FORECASTED TO PERSIST IN PNG UNTIL APRIL/MAY 2027 June 20, 2026 The Papua New Guinea Weather Service has officially confirmed the emergence of El Niño conditions within the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are expected to significantly influence weather and climatic patterns in the region in the upcoming months. Current predictions indicate that provinces located in the highlands, southern coastal regions, and other areas susceptible to drought will experience the effects of this phenomenon. The El Niño event is anticipated to persist until May of the following year. The National Weather Service issued an advance El Niño alert on May 1st, warning the public to prepare for the impending weather changes. On June 16th, following consultations with various climate experts and international meteorological organizations, including Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Weather Services, Jimmy Gamoga, Director of the National Weather Services, formally announced the official declaration of active El Niño conditions in the country. El Niño occurs when specific atmospheric and oceanic conditions converge. The Assistant Director of Climate and Special Services provided a straightforward explanation of how El Niño is expected to evolve over the next nine months. “Officially, El Niño has formed, indicating that the necessary atmospheric and oceanic conditions have aligned. This phenomenon is analogous to a child requiring nourishment and development: it will grow and mature over time. For the next three months, its impact will become noticeable, though not yet at its full intensity. By October, November, and December, we expect to see the event reach its peak strength and subsequently exert a more pronounced effect on the country,” Inape stated. The forecast suggests that the El Niño conditions will peak between October and December, followed by a gradual weakening expected between March and May of the subsequent year. “As we approach March, April, and May, we anticipate a decline in intensity, with the phenomenon having already manifested its effects. This will lead to a return to normal climatic conditions,” he added. This year's El Niño event is anticipated to resemble the significant occurrences of 1997 and 2015. “Despite being in a wetter phase, termed La Niña, certain highland areas and numerous islands are already experiencing dry conditions. This situation has effectively set the stage for the current El Niño, amplifying its impacts. “The timing of this El Niño is particularly concerning, as it coincides with our dry season, which limits rain days. Coupled with the influence of climate change, including increased ocean temperatures, this El Niño is expected to have an exacerbated effect, often characterized in media reports as a 'Super El Niño.’” The development of this El Niño was influenced by three tropical cyclones. Director of Weather Forecasting Benjamin Malai elaborated on this mechanism: “In April, while the cyclones that formed around Vanuatu and Fiji played a role, Tropical Cyclone Mila in our vicinity, along with Typhoon Sinlaku in the northern hemisphere, were pivotal. Both systems reached peak intensities, with Tropical Cyclone Mila attaining Category 5 status—the highest for tropical cyclones. As these systems developed, they significantly affected atmospheric conditions. “In the southern hemisphere, cyclones rotate clockwise, while in the northern hemisphere, they rotate counterclockwise. Their simultaneous existence disturbed normal wind patterns along the equator, transitioning from easterly to westerly winds. This disruption weakens the easterly winds and alters ocean surface movement, effectively setting the stage for the current climate conditions.” The weather service has issued a reminder that this El Niño will manifest gradually, urging the government to begin preparations for its anticipated impacts.