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BIG SHIFT INSIDE THE FED
The updated dot plot shows a much more hawkish Federal Reserve than markets expected.
• 9 of 18 officials now project at least one rate hike in 2026
• 6 of those 9 project multiple hikes
• Just 1 official sees a rate cut
• One participant (widely believed to be Kevin Warsh) did not submit a Summary of Economic Projections
Just a few months ago, markets were focused on when the Fed would cut rates.
Now, half of policymakers are signaling rates may need to go HIGHE...
