ProbabilityTA (Public)

For this week, there won't be a weekly market update. Instead, let's delve into Estee Lauder, ticker symbol EL, which we discussed previously in June 2023, employing the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. I've delineated three distinct price levels for accumulation at each juncture.

Weekly Market Update - 25th Mar 2024 - 29th Mar 2024. Weekly Market Update - Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates while reaffirming its forecast for three rate cuts by the end of 2024. With six meetings left and three cuts projected, the pace suggests potential aggressive moves, despite ongoing strong economic indicators. Envestnet’s D’Auria suggests there's a likelihood of fewer cuts this year, highlighting risks associated with premature cuts. In market news, last Friday saw a mixed close: The Dow fell by 305.47 points to 39,475.90, the S&P 500 edged down 0.14% to 5,234.18, and the Nasdaq Composite hit another record high, climbing 0.16% to 16,428.82. FedEx surged over 7% with better-than-expected earnings, while Nike dropped 6.9% due to disappointing guidance and slowing China sales. Lululemon also saw a significant decline of 15.8% following weak guidance and slowed growth in North America, marking its worst performance since March 2020. Looking ahead to the coming week, it's a shortened week for US equities with a good Friday ahead. Market sentiment remains bullish, especially with the Nasdaq index poised for further gains, potentially driven by anticipation of Nvidia crossing the $1,000 per share milestone, and expectations for the Dow Jones to breach and close above 40,000 points. However, once these record-breaking targets are reached, we may witness a sharp reversal as a digestion period sets in. Video - https://youtu.be/oIGZ4c4ThK8 NVDA: Keeping a close watch on Nvidia as it aims for the record-breaking milestone of $1,000. CCL: Anticipating the release of Carnival Corporation's earnings report on Wednesday. BA: Despite finding support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, Boeing is not immune to potential downside risks at this time. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Last night, Federal Reserve held rates at a 23-year high and maintained expectations for three cuts before the end of 2024. As we left 6 meeting to go, with 3 cuts on their expectations, we may be seeing for 1 cut in every 2 meeting which can be quite aggressive given with the current economy data coming hot.

Weekly Market Update - Last week, the US 10-year treasury saw an increase of over 5% following recent economic data that may be too robust for the Federal Reserve to consider loosening monetary policy. The Fed is scheduled to commence its two-day policy meeting on March 19. Despite this, all three US indices experienced slight declines: the S&P 500 shed 0.13%, the Dow dropped by 0.02%, and the Nasdaq slipped by 0.7%. Notably, major tech stocks, such as Amazon and Microsoft, saw declines of over 2% each on Friday. Looking ahead to the coming week, all eyes will be on the policy meeting for the interest rate decision. Additionally, for the Hang Seng Index (HSI), it faced strong resistance around 17,000, which serves as the neckline for the inverse head & shoulder pattern. I'll share updates on this in my Telegram channel. A breakthrough and close above 17,000 could lead to the next resistance level around 17,500. The outcome may hinge on how China responds to the bill passed by the House, potentially banning TikTok in the US on Wednesday, March 13. BA: If the $181 level, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, is broken upon retest, the bias leans towards further downside. UPS: Currently retesting its neckline. WTI: Recently hit resistance at $81. A break and subsequent close above this level could indicate further upside potential. HSI: Updates on the Hang Seng Index have been shared on Telegram. It has reached the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout above 17,000 may pave the way towards the next target at 17,500. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Weekly Market Update - 18th Mar 2024 - 22th Mar 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU-5Fcepkps

Providing a follow-up on HSI: The completion of the right shoulder on HSI is marked by reaching the neckline resistance level at 17,000. It remains to be seen whether the price will maintain its strength, potentially progressing to the next resistance at 17,500, followed by 18,000, as shared in the latest video.

Weekly Market Update - 11th Mar 2024 - 15th Mar 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtA9vPcc6nc

Weekly Market Update - 4th Mar 2024 - 8th Mar 2024. https://youtu.be/N8FAd7nea9g

Singapore shares: symbol - HST

Midweek Market Update: The recent drop in the US tech index, possibly influenced by anticipation of Nvidia's earnings report tonight, led to Nvidia's decline of nearly 4.4% last night. This drop could stem from insider knowledge of potentially poor earnings or investors booking profits to reduce risk before the report. However, today's Asian markets reveal a bullish trend in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China A50, while the Nikkei experiences a pullback after several days of bullish performance. The question arises: Will funds begin to rotate back into the Chinese market after weeks of bearish sentiment?

Weekly Market Update - 19th Feb 2024 - 23th Feb 2024. https://youtu.be/dO5vrX2Crws

Happy Chinese New Year 2024 to each and every one of you! May this auspicious occasion bring you joy, prosperity, and good health. As we step into the Year of the Dragon, let us embrace the spirit of strength and resilience. May our portfolios flourish and our profits soar as high as the mighty dragon itself. Here's to a prosperous and fulfilling year ahead! Best wishes, PTA

Weekly Market Update - 12th Feb 2024 - 16th Feb 2024. https://youtu.be/PTdY-33HaVI

Weekly market update - 5th Feb 2024 - 09 Feb 2024 https://youtu.be/XaJ67IqX6y0

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 353,000 in January, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 180,000 by a wide margin. Tonight maybe the start of the pullback for US index. Will be placing a short position on DJI Resistance 38600 Support 38000/37500

Weekly Market Update - 29 Jan 2024 - 02 Feb 2024. https://youtu.be/6SK6QDZV4qg

DJI - (Complimentary trade setup)