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📊 XAUUSD hits a two-week high Gold (XAU) price rose by 0.98% on Monday, as Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) reported that it restarted to buy the bullion in November. 👉 Possible effects for traders ‘The market is getting hopeful that we could see other central banks follow suit, and we could see a resumption of record territory buying’, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Official data showed that China's gold holdings rose to 72.96 million fine troy ounces at the end of November, up from 72.80 million a month earlier. The PBOC was the world's largest official sector buyer of gold in 2023. The resumption of its purchases may support Chinese investors' demand, which has been muted since the PBOC paused its 18-month buying streak in May. ‘The resumption will send a signal that the PBOC has grown accustomed to these record high price levels and is prepared to build reserves regardless’, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Meanwhile, political instability in the Middle East—particularly in Syria— supported safe-haven flows into gold. Also, the anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates next week added to the bullish sentiment. XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful. Traders should monitor the developments in the Middle East and rely mostly on technical analysis. ‘Spot gold may break resistance at $2,675 per ounce and rise to $2,696’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro moves sideways ahead of key economic U.S. data The euro (EUR) lost 0.15% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data later this week. 👉 Possible effects for traders While markets have priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) next week as a near certainty, investors are waiting for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for additional clues. Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth surged in November, but a rise in the unemployment rate towards 4.2% pointed to an easing labour market that should allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. The upcoming CPI data will be crucial in confirming or altering these expectations. Fundamentally, EURUSD is in a major downtrend, and investors continue to lack good reasons to buy the euro. At the same time, the fact that EURUSD hasn't dropped towards new lows since 22 November gives hope that a potential currency recovery may be on the horizon. Indeed, China's pledge to embrace a moderately loose monetary policy has boosted European sectors exposed to China, with mining and luxury stocks rising on Monday. EURUSD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although the macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful today, some minor European data released may add a little volatility to the market. German final CPI data is due at 7:00 a.m. UTC, and the Italian Industrial Production report is due at 9:00 a.m. UTC. The most important release this week is tomorrow's U.S. CPI report, so traders will probably refrain from opening large orders in USD pairs today. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 USDJPY gains on uncertainty about U.S. and Japanese interest rate paths USDJPY gained 0.82% on Monday amid ongoing uncertainty about the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike. 👉 Possible effects for traders The market remains uncertain whether the central bank will raise interest rates in December or January. Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, indicated that a rate increase is likely in the near future, as the economy is performing as expected. However, another member of the BOJ board, Toyoaki Nakamura, expressed concerns about unsustainable wage growth and other indications of economic weakness, adding to the overall uncertainty. Still, recent data shows that Japan's economy expanded by 0.3% over the three months ending September, exceeding initial estimates and expectations. With stronger-than-expected wage numbers reported last week, these economic indicators suggest that the BOJ may be more likely to alter its policy stance. Data released on Monday showed that U.S. inflation expectations for the next year increased towards 3% in November, up from 2.9% in October. This indicates that people remain concerned about persistent price pressures. Additionally, last week's figures revealed stronger-than-anticipated job growth in November. Still, the U.S. unemployment rate rose towards 4.2%, indicating a softening of the labour market that could allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates again this month. According to Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst, one of the primary market themes at present is the risk of persistently high inflation and the possibility that the Fed may not reduce rates significantly in the coming year. Despite these mixed signals, market participants expect an 86% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points this month. However, the future outlook for 2025 remains highly uncertain. USDJPY has been declining during Asian and early European trading hours. Today the Japanese Producer Price Index will come out at 11:50 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures will be negative for USDJPY, while lower data may support the pair. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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📊XAUUSD grows on geopolitical instability and Chinese gold purchases Gold (XAU) touched the $2,650 level on Monday, driven by China's central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month pause, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut. 👉 Possible effects for traders On Sunday, Syrian rebel forces successfully ousted President Bashar al-Assad, bringing to an end the 50-year rule of the Assad family and raising concerns about a potential new wave of unrest in the region. Additionally, the U.S. nonfarm payroll report published on Friday indicated that the labour market is showing signs of gradual improvement, allowing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider reducing interest rates later this month. Based on the CME FedWatch tool's projections, markets currently anticipate an 85.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the Fed's last meeting of the year on 18 December. This would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more appealing to investors. The resumption of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in November may be a positive development for investors and may support gold prices. According to Yeap Jun Rong, a strategic analyst at IG, this move may stimulate Chinese investors' demand for gold, which has been dampened since the PBOC stopped its purchases in May. The decision to increase holdings of gold, particularly after the recent election of Trump, reflects the proactive approach of the PBOC in ensuring economic stability in light of changing global conditions, according to analysts at OCBC. XAUUSD has been trading bullish during Asian and early European trading hours. No new events are expected to influence XAUUSD movements today. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

🔽Euro weakens on mixed U.S. jobs data The euro (EUR) lost 0.17% against the U.S. dollar (USD) during a very volatile trading session on Friday as traders digested a rather mixed U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report. 👉 Possible effects for traders Following significant job losses due to hurricanes and strikes in October, U.S. employment surged in November. Friday's NFP report showed that 227,000 jobs were created last month, more than the market expected. Nevertheless, a slight uptick in the unemployment rate towards 4.2% indicated a cooling labour market, which may lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in December further. Although a rate cut seems imminent, investors are watching U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week for any additional clues. ‘A hot U.S. CPI print may not necessarily derail a cut at next week's FOMC meeting, but it would affect the level of implied cuts priced for FOMC meetings from March 2025 onwards, and this is where the U.S. dollar may take its directional steer’, said Chris Weston, head of research at Australian online broker Pepperstone. Meanwhile, the sluggish eurozone economy and political uncertainty continue to weigh on the euro. The market currently prices in a 64% probability that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce its base rate to just 2.5% by 6 March 2025. At the same time, the market expects the U.S. interest rate to remain close towards 4% by that time. This divergence in monetary policy expectations continues to favour the greenback and exerts downward pressure on EURUSD. EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful today, so the established bearish trend will likely continue. Low volatility may also prompt traders to take profit on their short positions, which may lead to a temporary rebound in EURUSD. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

🔽AUDUSD declines ahead of the RBA interest rate decision The Australian dollar (AUD) declined by 1.87% by the end of the week as some investors bet the central bank officials would sound more dovish at the monetary policy meeting this week. 👉 Possible effects for traders Tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting stands out among other central banks' meetings. The RBA is expected to oppose the global trend of lowering interest rates by keeping the rates unchanged at 4.35%. The central bank has been supporting the rate for over a year, but markets anticipate an earlier rate cut in 2025 following a disappointing economic performance in the previous quarter. There is now a 55% probability that the RBA will lower interest rates in February. If the employment data coming out on Thursday is weak, it may increase the likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February to approximately 75%. Meanwhile, a potential rate cut in April is almost fully priced in. Also, several RBA officials will deliver speeches this week, which may add volatility to AUDUSD. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated to reduce interest rates by 25 basis point next week, analysts suggest that the U.S. dollar (USD) might be weakening after its long growth in the four weeks following the election of Donald Trump. Morgan Stanley analysts have even recommended shorting the U.S. dollar until the end of the year, describing it as a risky investment for traders heavily invested in the currency. According to their analysis, the optimistic outlook for USD is primarily based on price factors, such as strong U.S. economic data, trade, and fiscal risks, all of which favour the greenback. Nevertheless, they feel that investor sentiment toward the U.S. dollar is generally favourable, indicating that there may be an asymmetric risk of ‘unfavourable consequences’ if the situation changes. AUDUSD continued to decline during Asian and European trading hours. Market participants are waiting for the RBA rate decision, which will be released tomorrow at 3:30 a.m. UTC, and the RBA Press Conference at 4:30 a.m. UTC, where officials will give more clues on future interest rate trajectory. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart EURUSD retested the support level of 1.05500 👉Level explanation EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.05500. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.05550. Set your stop loss at 1.05300 below the previous low ($2.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.05800 ($2.50 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810