Technical My Tips

📊 Gold rises on weak U.S. data Gold (XAU) rose by 0.67% on Thursday, closing slightly below the $2,720 resistance level. 👉 Possible effects for traders The U.S. Department of Commerce reported yesterday that retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, below the expected 0.5% increase and down from the revised 0.8% rise in November. Also, the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly declined in December. Meanwhile, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose towards 217,000, above the expected 210,000. Weaker-than-expected data fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may accelerate interest rate reductions, lowering the U.S. dollar. According to Christopher Louney, commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets, the data dependency of gold is evident in its pricing, particularly in light of this week's inflation reports and the subsequent shift in swap traders' sentiment towards anticipating a rate reduction by July. 'Despite our unchanged price outlook, this serves as an indication of the fluctuations in strength and weakness that we anticipate in the market for gold. Overall, this should contribute to the stability of gold's hold and its resilience', stated Louney. Michael Langford, Chief Investment Officer at Scorpion Minerals, highlighted that increased uncertainty surrounding the incoming Donald Trump administration's actions influences gold as a tool for trading short-term volatility. XAUUSD was moving sideways within a range of $2,710–$2,717 during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, no important economic news is expected. According to Reuters analyst Wang Tao, 'Spot gold may test support at $2,706 per ounce. A break below could open the way towards the $2,685 to $2,693 range'. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 EURUSD remains flat amidst mixed U.S. economic data On Thursday, the euro (EUR) was virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar (USD) as several macroeconomic indicators painted a rather mixed picture of the U.S. economy. 👉 Possible effects for traders Yesterday's reports revealed that the U.S. retail sales rose by less than expected in December, but November figures were revised higher. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week but remained at levels showing a healthy labour market. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Business Index jumped towards 44.3 in January, substantially higher than expected −5. 'I think retail sales didn't really have a significant impact. CPI initially had an impact in terms of weakening the dollar, but that was quickly reversed. And I think that just indicates that the market is still strongly biased to buy the dollar on dips, probably in anticipation of the inauguration next week and the potentially dollar-supportive policies of the incoming Trump administration, including the possibility that tariffs will be raised relatively quickly', said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS Investment Bank. As for the U.S. monetary policy, the latest data continues to support the case for fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The market prices in no more than two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025. Overall, the fundamental pressure on EURUSD remains bearish, but the pair lacks new fundamental impulses to move even lower. Indeed, while European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers anticipated further interest rate cuts, the minutes from their December meeting revealed a cautious stance due to several uncertainties that could hinder inflation from reaching its 2% target. EURUSD was essentially flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful. Traders may use this opportunity to take profit on their short positions, possibly triggering a technical rebound in EURUSD. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Crypto industry awaits Donald Trump's inauguration On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility due to recent economic developments in the U.S. and President Donald Trump's proposal for an executive order designating cryptocurrencies as a policy priority. BTCUSD lost 0.53% by the end of the day. 👉 Possible effects for traders On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that retail sales increased by 0.4% in December, compared with a revised 0.8% increase in November, below the expected 0.5%. This data follows a slight decrease in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy prices, which sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would speed up interest rate cuts.The data put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar (USD). Also, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased towards a seasonally adjusted 217,000 during the week ending 11 January, exceeding the forecasted 210,000. According to reports, Donald Trump is expected to issue an order designating cryptocurrency as a national priority as soon as he returns to office on 20 January. Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the order will direct regulatory agencies to work with industry representatives. It may also establish a cryptocurrency council to promote industry policy objectives. The order is expected to come out on 20 January, but it's not yet finalised and might be changed before being released to the public. The crypto industry strongly supported Trump's campaign, and the incoming president promised to make the U.S. a 'crypto capital'. BTCUSD was rising during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants are awaiting Donald Trump's inauguration and are optimistic about his future plans related to crypto. Overall, no significant events are expected today that could influence the pair. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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📊 Gold rises as markets expect more Fed rate cuts after CPI release Gold (XAU) increased by 0.7% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar (USD) weakened following the release of lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). 👉 Possible effects for traders Yesterday's U.S. CPI report eased inflation concerns and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not have finished its easing cycle. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rose 3.2% annually, compared with an expected 3.3% rise. 'Core CPI came in a little bit below expectations. This is a bit of a positive for gold (. . .) The corollary to this is that the Fed will not necessarily exclude the possibility of cutting rates', said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. According to Reuters, markets now expect the Fed to deliver 40 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by year-end, compared with the anticipated 31 bps before the inflation data release. Gold, which has no passive yield, tends to rise in a low-interest-rate environment. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty about global tariffs and trade policies and their potential to hinder economic growth is expected to maintain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. XAUUSD was rising during the Asian trading session but started to fall during the early European hours. Today, more U.S. macroeconomic data may indicate where U.S. interest rates are heading. Investors are bracing for the simultaneous release of three reports at 1:30 p.m. UTC: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Manufacturing Index. Better-than-expected results may prompt investors to expect fewer rate cuts from the Fed, which will likely push the gold price down. Conversely, worse-than-expected figures may raise the probability of a 25-bps rate cut in March, which will almost certainly pull XAUUSD higher. 'Spot gold may extend gains into a range of $2,714 to $2,719 per ounce, as suggested by a projection analysis and a rising wedge', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. Sign Up Now ➡️https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro struggles to strengthen despite lower U.S. inflation The euro (EUR) lost 0.17% against the U.S. dollar (USD) during a very volatile trading session on Wednesday. 👉 Possible effects for traders Initially, EURUSD rallied above the critical 1.03500 level following the release of lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. However, the pair lost all of its gains and closed below the 1.02900 level. U.S. CPI report eased fears that inflation was accelerating and increased the chances the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates twice this year. Still, the data failed to break the fundamental bearish trend in EURUSD. 'Dollar strength is not going to end because of this (CPI) number. It's going to probably become more nuanced, and we might see the dollar continue to be strong against the European currencies', said Peter Vassallo, FX portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management. The U.S. economy is still overperforming the eurozone economy, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is still projected to deliver more rate cuts than the Fed in 2025. EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, more U.S. macroeconomic data give more insights into the U.S. interest rate path. Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Manufacturing Index reports will come out at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Better-than-expected results may indicate a possibility of fewer rate cuts by the Fed, likely pushing EURUSD down. Conversely, worse-than-expected figures may raise the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, almost certainly pulling EURUSD higher. Sign Up Now ➡️https://tlt.ink/octa Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 USDCAD seems to find support USDCAD declined for a third consecutive session on Wednesday. However, the decline was limited as traders' caution about expected U.S. trade tariffs offset cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data. 👉 Possible effects for traders The increase in the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy components, slowed down towards 3.2% in December, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The slowdown indicated a possible reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future. Michael Goshko, senior market analyst at Convera Canada ULC, said that the U.S. dollar (USD) is still in high demand. Until there is a clear understanding of the situation regarding tariffs, currency traders will likely maintain their long positions in the U.S. dollar. Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, expressed concern that the proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada by President-elect Donald Trump could harm the U.S. automotive industry, increase vehicle prices, and benefit China. Meanwhile, Canadian economic data revealed that home sales decreased by 5.8% in December compared to November, although they remained up by 10% in Q4. The decline happened due to the Bank of Canada reducing interest rates. Also, the oil price—one of Canada's major export commodities—increased by 2.8% towards $80 per barrel, driven by a significant drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories and potential disruptions to supply caused by new U.S. sanctions against Russia. USDCAD was growing during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the market expects two U.S. reports: Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data, both coming out at 1:30 p.m. UTC. A better-than-expected retail sales number may support USDCAD, while a higher-than-expected jobless claims figure may put downward pressure on USDCAD. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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