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📊 Euro rebounds, but weak fundamentals limit growth potential The euro (EUR) gained 0.33% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday even though the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained near a three-week high, as investors priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates more slowly next year. 👉 Possible effects for traders For the past month, EURUSD has been essentially stuck in a tight range between 1.04500 and 1.06100. Numerous bearish factors, such as the sluggish eurozone economy, the dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and the possibility of Donald Trump's implementing new trade tariffs on European goods, have been mostly priced in. At the same time, the eurozone's underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, preventing investors from taking significant long positions on the EURUSD. The most significant bearish factor is the divergence in investors' monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. Markets expect a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting but only price a roughly 24% chance of another reduction in January, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, interest rate swaps market data implies that the ECB will cut the rates at every meeting until June 2025. The probability that the eurozone base rate will be just 2% on 5 June 2025 stands at 56%. Therefore, although EURUSD has been stabilising over the past three weeks, failing to set a new low, market sentiment remains cautious. Investors are hesitant to adopt a bullish outlook due to underlying economic concerns, which means that rallies in the pair are likely to be sold. EURUSD was rising during the Asian trading session but weakened during the early European trading hours. Today, investors will focus on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) released by the S&P Global. German data is due at 8:30 a.m., and the data for the eurozone is due at 9:00 a.m., while the U.S. figures will be released at 2:45 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the European PMIs to improve slightly but remain below the critical 50 mark, which separates economic contraction from expansion. Conversely, they expect the U.S. figures to weaken but remain close to the 50 mark. A rise in eurozone PMI, especially if it is accompanied by a drop in U.S. PMI, may pull EURUSD 1.05700. Otherwise, the pair may continue to weaken and possibly drop below the 1.04500 level. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

📊 GBP weakens on a more dovish outlook from the Bank of England The British pound (GBP) extended its recent decline on Friday after the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and output data were below the forecast. The pair finished the week with a 0.95% drop. 👉 Possible effects for traders The combination of persistent U.S. inflation, potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), and weakening economic growth in the U.K. has prompted the Bank of England (BOE) to adopt a more accommodative approach. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated a gradual easing of four rate reductions in 2025. This should limit the rise of the pound at the end of 2024. Although expectations for the BOE's interest rate decision at the 19 December meeting remain unchanged, market expectations are pricing in a narrower path for U.K. and U.S. interest rates in 2025, continuing to pressure the British pound. In 2025, traders will need to consider whether the Fed may halt its rate reductions or even consider increasing rates if inflation fails to reach the 2% target. As for the British pound, traders should consider whether the Bank of England may adopt a more accommodating monetary policy if inflation persists, especially given market expectations of only three interest rate reductions in 2025 compared to the four anticipated by Bailey. GBPUSD was rising during Asian and early European trading hours, trying to regain some Friday losses. Market participants wait for the U.K. S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash data report, coming out today at 9:30 a.m. UTC today. A higher-than-expected number will be bullish for GBPUSD, while lower data may put additional bearish pressure on the pair. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

​​#webinars_schedule #education 📱 You can now watch our educational webinars in the Octa Trading App on your smartphone. Install the latest version, tap Webinars in the menu, and enjoy fast and easy access to all upcoming and past videos. 🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts. 👋 Join and learn more about trading: 🇵🇰 16/12, 6:30 p.m. PKT – URDU – Live trading session with Mateen Awan 🇮🇩 17/12, 7 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session on OctaTrader with Vito Henjoto 🇬🇧 17/12, 9 p.m. MYT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Kar Yong Ang 🇮🇩 18/12, 7 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session with Setyo Wibowo 🇬🇧 19/12, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session on OctaTrader with Tunmise Olaoluwa 🇲🇾 19/12, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie 🇮🇩 20/12, 7:15 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session with Andre Rizky

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GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart GBPJPY tested the support level of 193.860 👉Level explanation GBPJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 193.860. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 193.870. Set your stop loss at 193.370 below the previous low ($3.26 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 194.370 ($3.26 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

Stay tuned with the crypto market and trade in the Octa app. Political news A current chef of the crypto police department, Brian Quintenz is the top candidate to take over as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under President-elect Trump's administration. His appointment as a former CFTC commissioner could shift the power balance in a longstanding debate about the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Vancouver has approved a plan to integrate Bitcoin into its financial system, including creating a Bitcoin reserve and allowing Bitcoin payments. Technical analysis This week was quiet for BTCUSD, primarily moving sideways within the $96k–$102k range. For the upcoming week, analysts expect the price to decline towards the $97k support level and then rebound from SMA200 in the 4-hour timeframe. Then, the asset may break the $100k resistance level and move towards the $106k resistance level. #crypto #cryptotrading #cryptonews #cryptoupdate #forextrading

AUDUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart AUDUSD retested the support level of 0.63600 👉Level explanation AUDUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 0.63600 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.63723. Set your stop loss at 0.63507 below the previous low ($2.17 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.63940 ($2.17 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

🔽 Mixed economic data and potential easing in the Middle East weigh on gold Due to mixed economic data, gold (XAU) dropped from $2,720 towards $2,680 and finished the day with a 1.38% decline. 👉 Possible effects for traders The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) figures increased more than anticipated in November, rising by 0.4%, compared to the expected 0.2%. This development has raised concerns that inflation may persistently exceed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target into the coming year. However, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly soared towards a nearly two-month high, significantly exceeding expectations. This surge underscores the risks of a weakening labour market. The markets still anticipate a 25-basis-point increase in interest rates by the Fed next week, and they are factoring in subsequent rate cuts for the following year. However, there is still uncertainty about the extent of these reductions. Also, the possibility of ease in tensions between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East put a bearish pressure on the price of precious metals in the near future. Arab mediators say that Hamas has agreed to two key conditions from Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza, which has given people hope that an agreement can be reached soon. This could lead to the release of some prisoners, and it would be good news for the market. XAUUSD has been moving sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. The market is still assessing yesterday's mixed U.S. economic data. Today, no significant news that could add volatility to the market is expected. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

🔽 EURUSD falls for the fifth consecutive day The euro (EUR) lost 0.26% against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report pulled the greenback higher. 👉 Possible effects for traders A Labor Department report released on Thursday revealed that producer prices climbed by 0.4% month-over-month in November, exceeding the projected 0.2% increase. While the report didn't affect investors' expectations for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week, it sparked concerns about underlying inflationary pressures. This could potentially complicate the Fed's decision-making process and lead towards a more cautious approach to future rate cuts. A less dovish Fed would be supportive of the U.S. dollar. ‘Although the Fed is seen cutting its benchmark by 25 bps, moves in the last 24 hours—from the Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, and European Central Bank—have ensured that cross-currency rate differentials will remain wide relative to the U.S., maintaining the dollar's position in relative terms’, said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a 25-bps rate cut on Thursday. The central bank also indicated that additional easing measures could be forthcoming as inflation approaches its target and economic conditions remain subdued. The markets currently price in a 95% chance that the ECB will deliver another 25-bps cut on 30 January 2025. The chances of a similar reduction by the Fed are less than 75%. EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading session. Today's macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature any major events, so bears may use this opportunity to take profit and close their short positions on EURUSD. This may lead to a short-term rebound in the pair. However, the fundamental pressure on the pair remains bearish. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

📊 Bitcoin retreated from the all-time high Bitcoin (BTC) moved primarily sideways during the last trading session, losing 1.16%. However, some news developments could potentially support the asset in the near term. 👉 Possible effects for traders According to a Bloomberg article, Brian Quintenz is the top candidate to take over as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Quintenz currently runs the policy department at Andreessen Horowitz, the crypto division A16Z, and has experience overseeing important policy initiatives at the CFTC from 2017 to 2021. His appointment could shift the power balance in a longstanding debate about the regulation of cryptocurrencies, which are currently under the purview of both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Quintenz fought to include digital asset derivatives and events contracts in the agency's system. He emphasised the importance of innovation while keeping the market stable. Vancouver has approved a plan to integrate Bitcoin into its financial system, including creating a reserve and allowing Bitcoin payments. Mayor Ken Sim proposed this idea before an 11 December meeting, saying it could help protect against inflation and currency devaluation. Six council members supported the plan, two were against it, and three were absent from voting. Before the vote, Sim said he submitted the idea because he wants to be prepared for future challenges and secure Vancouver's future for the next 100 years. ‘We've got affordability issues, and I really think Bitcoin could be the answer to our financial problems’, Sim said. He explained that he wanted to bring the idea to the council because he found out that property prices in the city have risen by 381% since 1995, while gold hadn't changed much. He also pointed out that the city's fixed-income securities, worth $3.1 billion, were down by $185 million in market value. ‘Something's not right here. Our money's losing value, and we're losing our buying power’, he worried. BTCUSD continues to trade sideways in a range of 99,200.00–100,400.00 during Asian and early European trading hours. No significant data that can affect the asset dynamics is expected today. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart XAUUSD pulled back from the resistance level of 2,690.00 👉Level explanation XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,690.00. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,685.50. Set your stop loss at 2,694.00 above the previous high ($8.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,673.00 ($12.50 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.47. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

#economic_calendar This event may affect the market on 13 December. 🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!

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USDJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart USDJPY rebounded from the support level of 151.950 👉General outlook USDJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 151.950. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 152.250. Set your stop loss at 151.750 below the previous low ($3.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 152.750 ($3.50 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

USDCAD, 30-minute timeframe chart USDCAD retested the support level of 1.41350 👉General outlook USDCAD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.41350. 👉Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.41568. Set your stop loss at 1.41292 below the previous low ($1.95 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.41844 ($1.95 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. 👉Fundamental factors The U.S. Producer Price Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

The New Year holiday season can be tricky for traders—markets are unpredictable, and distractions are everywhere. To help you navigate this festive trading period, we've compiled 12 smart tips to keep your trades on track and your stress levels low. From securing stop losses to mastering your holiday strategy, these tips are designed to help you trade smarter, not harder. Learn them in the cards to succeed in holiday trading. #TradeSmart #NewYearTrading #HolidayTips #Trading101

📊 Gold climbs as inflation fears ease and geopolitical risks rise Gold (XAU) price rallied by 0.9% on Wednesday and closed above the important $2,700 level after the U.S. inflation report aligned with market expectations. 👉 Possible effects for traders Fundamental factors—safe-haven buying due to growing tensions in the Middle East and strong structural demand by global central banks—have contributed to the recent XAUUSD rally, which has risen by more than 6% over the month. However, technical chart-based buying has also been a significant driver for the price of gold, as a break above the weekly pivot level of $2,650 on Monday prompted gold bulls to target new highs. Additionally, yesterday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data didn't show a pickup in inflation, which many investors had feared, allowing them to increase their long positions in gold. Goldman Sachs, a leading investment bank, predicts an 11% increase in gold prices towards $3,000 by the end of 2025. However, their forecast is heavily based on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy remaining dovish. ‘A higher for longer federal funds rate is the main downside risk to our $3,000 forecast. For instance, if the Fed cut by an additional 25 basis points only (which would likely also strengthen the U.S. dollar), we estimate that the gold price would rise to only $2,890 by end-2025’. XAUUSD dropped sharply during the Asian session but started to rise again in the early European hours. Today's main event is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report due at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Although the report is less important than yesterday's CPI, a surprisingly strong or weak figure may shake the market. The market expects the core PPI to rise by 3.2% in November. A higher-than-expected result may trigger a minor sell-off in XAUUSD. A lower-than-expected number may push the gold price even higher, possibly above $2,726. ‘Spot gold may retrace into a zone of $2,673 to $2,687 per ounce, following its failure to break key resistance at $2,718’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

🔽 Diverging monetary policies pressure euro The euro (EUR) lost 0.3% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the greenback strengthened slightly after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data aligned the market forecasts. 👉 Possible effects for traders Although yesterday's U.S. CPI report aligned with investors' expectations, it nonetheless strengthened the prevailing opinion that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement a rate reduction next week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently price in a 99% probability that the Fed will cut its base rate by 25 basis points (bps), up from an 89% probability of such a move on 10 December. At the same time, investors are less optimistic about the future U.S. interest rate path and price in a 56% probability that the base rate will remain above 4% by mid-March 2025. Conversely, traders are much more confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will pursue a dovish monetary policy. Interest rate swaps market data implies a 63% probability that the ECB will lower its key base rate towards just 2% by mid-March. A substantial divergence in monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed remains a major bearish factor for the EURUSD. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar received an additional boost yesterday from a Reuters report. Analysts indicated that China considered allowing the Chinese yuan to weaken in 2025 to brace for higher trade tariffs in a second Donald Trump presidency. EURUSD was essentially unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders brace for the ECB interest rate decision due at 1:15 p.m. UTC. Investors expect a 25-bps rate cut but are more interested in the latest ECB Monetary Policy Statement, which may reveal important details about the interest rates path. Also, the ECB press conference at 1:45 p.m. UTC is important as Christine Lagarde, ECB President, may provide critical forward guidance that could significantly impact EURUSD's trajectory. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH

🚀 GBPUSD spiked on U.S. CPI data The British pound (GBP) rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data eased fears of higher inflation and U.S. interest rates. 👉 Possible effects for traders The CPI figures increased by 0.3% last month—marking the highest rise since April—aligning with forecasts of economists surveyed by Reuters. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on 18 December increased towards more than 98.4% after the CPI report. ‘The market is now almost certain that the Fed will reduce rates next week’, says Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Forex. ‘Such a move would be unusual for the Fed to take, as it would contradict the current market expectations, given the high probability of a rate reduction already priced in by market participants’, he added. However, the Fed's future course of action remains uncertain. The available data suggests that the U.S. still struggles to achieve its 2% inflation target, which could impact market expectations regarding future Fed policy easing. The core CPI figure is above its summer low at 3.2%. The headline CPI was rising from its 2.4% low in September and is now at 2.7%. According to Carol Kong, currency strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the U.S. dollar will likely remain strong as market pricing reflects concerns about a slower disinflation process, potentially leading to a more gradual rate-cutting cycle by the Fed next year. GBPUSD moves sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, market participants wait for the U.S. Producer Price Index data due at 1:30 p.m. UTC to get more clues on the inflation rate. Softer-than-expected data may give the pair a bullish momentum, while higher-than-anticipated results will pressure GBPUSD. 📲 More trading opportunities in our app If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country: 🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH