The Sharp Plays Trading

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Gap down below the 50 day SMA and the 50 day held as resistance. The tariffs are on hold, but will the market still sell anyway is the question. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/b6n6HxCoFPuRntJw Good luck in your trades!

As expected!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: I am wondering if this situation is one of those where the market will tank hard for a day or two, there will be negotiations going on behind the scenes and right before anything happens…it will all be over! Markets will aggressively rebound and the bears will get killed once again. Just feels like I have seen this story before. Maybe not, but it’s my lean. Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Trading content has been quiet mainly because I am waiting for a place to buy. The market isn’t really going up, but it also isn’t really going down. I will say that the sell-off due to China’s alleged A.I. advancements is potentially setting A.I. related stocks up for a buying opportunity. I am watching that industry and have several possible targets in mind. Otherwise though, the SPY just sort of churns sideways. It’s great for strangle and credit spread players in options, but not very good for quality swing trades. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/LLZLu3sNtwhpi2e Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Here’s where things could FINALLY get interesting. The last two years saw strong growth in stocks, but nothing just goes up and up. Like public runs in sports…eventually there is a reckoning…but it is simply a matter of time. Markets have been overbought and boring for essentially all of 2024. We did not get that swing trading environment that is fun to trade and provides both bulls and bears with multiple trading opportunities throughout the year. Instead it was basically just a slow grind higher…great for the 401K…not so much for the trade. The key line right now is SPY $580. We cracked it, then recovered it and now threatening to crack it. I do expect a break to lead to selling, but sharp selling likely won’t come unless we break $560…and given how long the bulls have been in total control, I don’t see either level cracking easy…but once they do we should see a healthy down move. Once the down move is over, then it will present some great opportunities for buying at decent prices. I have a laundry list of positions I am interested in…now I just have to get my targets. Let’s see what they do with $580 first. SPY: https://sblk.io/s/alxliNs6tNi6sOR Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Getting some volatility and some volume for a change, but we are stuck in a sideways pattern. The market long-term and short-term remains overbought. The market could use a good sell-off to clean up overbought pressures and free up some money for the next run up. However, selling into this market has been a bad idea for most of 2024. The question will be after the strong run the past two years, do we finally see some collapsing? The bears need a break of $580 which should lead to an acceleration in selling. The red line pivot at $563 then becomes the next major support, we break that and we likely eventually get to $500 before a bounce. If bulls are strong, despite a break of $580, they would hold the $563 and push to new highs. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/KRXRsAsquxIYi6e The question is who blinks first. I am watching for a break of $580 and then I will maybe look to grab some $560 PUTS a couple months out and take a shot at a further down move. Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Unlikely to see much for next week. The 50 day SMA is still holding the bulls back, despite the move today. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf6cnfqC0hw1 Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Very ominous sign yesterday at bulls tried to pop the market up at the open but the 50 day SMA held back the rally and in the end it was a flat day. The candle is pretty telling. It’s not to say that in the days ahead the bulls don’t regain the 50 day SMA, but the weakness shown right now seems to foretell that a larger sell-off is in the making…eventually. Volume very strong this week BUT it could also be the last action of the year. We might be seeing action today because traders are moving their positions for 2025 and will be taking off the next two weeks which is pretty much normal for this time of the year. I am excited that a real trading environment of volatile up and down action will be coming in 2025! SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/EpbwIncJfOuwUn9 Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: The candle yesterday ended up being quite ominous. We are obviously oversold now on a short term basis, but it would signify that perhaps the next major move is down. The key pivot, to get back to those since it has been awhile as the market has slowly ground higher, would be the red line at $563. We will see if this is just some profit protection selling OR if they push below that level. I might look to front-run a larger sell-off, but ideally would want a little bounce, perhaps to test SPY $600 before a collapse lower. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/wyxzTPcQSNh0FEY Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Given that this year in the market was just a slow grind upward, without almost any pain for the bulls…could we possible see a Krampus crash versus the usual Santa Claus rally? I know the sportsbooks want Krampus to show up for the next two weeks of the year, but what about in the market. Today’s break of SPY $600 was a material break because usually such cracks are easily recovered. Not only did SPY $600 crack, but we also broke the 50 day SMA and is so far holding below it. The days ahead will tell the real story, but this is the first time in a long time that we have seen a candle like this one. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/KRX4tJcPTmsPBfy0 We are way overdue for a sell-off, but I thought it would wait until January…as did many traders…which is perhaps why it is happening now. Let’s see what happens! Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Shoutout to my haters requesting an update here! When it comes to SPY…as I continue to say, I can’t chase a bullish trade above SPY $550. If I wasn’t invested already, I could never add a position here. The analytics and technicals are screaming overbought. The bearish divergences just keep popping. So, I can’t buy…I’ll just ride existing long positions. I will close existing long positions on a break below SPY $600. A material break and close below $600 would be a sign that a short term top is in. Although the technicals are screaming overbought…I also am not willing to go short until I see the bears have something. This month I don’t expect much as traders vanish for the holidays. I would expect further movement higher on low volume all month. Zooming out longer-term, I posted an article to the Trading Telegram recently about how previous markets have performed after a year like this one…it’s rarely been good. So, between the heavily overbought technicals and analytics, and the warning sign for what to expect next year…I see no reason to open new bullish positions. I ride what I have and sit back and watch for signs of the next sell-off. Then I will look to jump back into some good values after a material sell-off. Markets don’t just go up and up forever…they do have rough years and we are overdue for one…so that’s further concern. The fact that China is restricting billions of dollars of chip materials to the US could be just the trigger to send things spiraling down…but it will take a bit for that news and those related issues to work their way through the system. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/OnYLCxc1caUBcZn Bitcoin Chart: https://sblk.io/s/MYDNUBcycdUl1SrO I cover Bitcoin for the crypto fans, but I am not too into trading it. It’s very volatile and except for messing around at low levels, it isn’t something I throw material funds into. With that said, the run has been impressive and the real election bet was to buy crypto in September and hope Trump won…which happened and the return has been excellent. At this point though it might be topping out. Once again we have bearish divergences on both MACD and RSI. I don’t like to enter any trades when bearish divergences are going on unless it is to short a position. I could see BTC selling off to $75,000, consolidating and then making another run up the charts. Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: It’s been boring for the trading content, but there’s not much to do here. The market isn’t hard charging higher…just a slow grind which for short-term trading absolutely blows. You definitely don’t want to short this market because that isn’t work. So, you can’t buy at the high and you don’t want to short a non-moving market…leaves you with little to do but watch. Combine all that with the outrageously low volume the past few months which is even lower now that we are in December. Then throw in the fact that the last two weeks of the month are dead. Maybe we get a Santa Claus rally, but we have almost had that the past few weeks. I rather sit back and wait either for a clear short entry (which is like finding a unicorn) OR let any selling play out and then buy on a dip…but we need a real dip first. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/Al7dUYcmSrspHE9 So, I am watching, but I don’t think there will be anything to do until next year. Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: The boring market environment continues. I would love to buy, but we are at an all-time high area, there’s nothing I will ever buy at an all-time high. I will wait for a material sell-off and get in. We really did not get any material sell-offs in 2024. Perhaps 2025 will be more interesting. When something is at an all-time high, the only strategy I am interested in is selling…because as is the case now…we are overbought and usually some pressure needs to be relieved…but we don’t really sell in the markets anymore. So, pretty boring! SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf7ibIqC0hqr I don’t expect much more for Thanksgiving week as traders headed for the exists on Wednesday this past week and won’t return until after next weekend. We’ll see…who knows, maybe we get some action. If I don’t talk to you here before then…have a WONDERFUL and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!! Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: We’ve had the post election pop and then not much. I am not really one to follow the trend. A trend will only run for so long. I like to wait for the inevitable reversal, whether or up down, if I miss the opening move. The reversal would mean a sell-off and we likely see a sell-off go down to SPY $570 to close the post election gap and do a little consolidating. When that closure comes is anyone’s guess. A break of $590 is a signal that the short term top might be in. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf7i0sKilSqm Good luck in your trades!

Once the market popped after Election Day and has gone sideways the rest of the week, plus the holiday, there hasn't been much to discuss, but some action is likely coming!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Market launches higher on the Trump victory as tech and AI related stocks lead the way. The question will be whether this was just a short covering rally or we start running higher. I would like to see what the next days ahead show. Volume in SPY was above average, but hardly the 5 million shares traded in a given day we saw regularly in May and prior. So, not sure what to make of the move. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/3RZwtAiOfoCKS4M Good luck in your trades!

Telegram Trading The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/ Assessment: Quiet day with the US Elections going on, but we could see some wackiness in the markets over the next few days and pending the results and as traders assess the results and what it means to the market and various industries. Based on the volume today, it is clearly sit back and watch. SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/mPRMUki3SMtEUMr Good luck in your trades!

Telegram cut off the article, so to view the complete report, visit https://tsp.live/2024/11/03/us-election-betting-market-report/

🇺🇸 US Election Betting Market Report 🇺🇸 Prior to the initial debate, Donald Trump was a -110 favorite to win the Presidency. After the debate, Trump moved from -110 to +120. Things held steady until the VP debate. Within the week after the VP debate, one in which the consensus said Vance won, Trump got back into the lead at -115. Since that move up, the momentum in the betting markets has been all Trump. Trump reached a high of -200 in the betting markets on October 30th. In the past four days, Trump has taken a sharp turn down and is currently -130 to -140. Trump is still in the lead, but a 60 to 65 cent drop in odds is big in just 2-3 days. What happened? After the VP debate, slowly on Real Clear Politics’ “Top Battleground Polls”, (https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states) Trump began to take over…getting to the point where the RCP aggregate showed Trump in the lead for every battleground state. However, over the past week, Wisconsin and Michigan moved back in the Harris column on the RCP Battleground polling. Along with that move, there’s been news that an Iowa poll showed Harris in the lead which would be a shocking loss for Trump. It is however just one poll…but it contributes to market adjustments…and pricing concerns on Trump for bettors. Still the momentum has shifted from Trump to Harris based on this data…note I said “momentum” and not that the “lead” has shifted. As a bettor, I felt Trump’s odds had gotten out of hand based on the market data and polling. When Trump was -200, that translated into Trump having implied odds of 66.67% of winning the election. I do not disagree that the data does lean to Trump winning, but a 67% chance of winning is a little high based on the data. To warrant such a probability you would want the polling to show Trump with at least a 3-4% national poll lead, and his lead is around +0.2 nationally and +1 in the battlegrounds according to RCP…very tight margins and not indicative of a 67% chance of winning. You can complain that Real Clear Politics (RCP) doesn’t do data right, or that polls are wrong, but these data points still dictate the betting market pricing to a decent extent…flawed or not. If you feel the polls/RCP data is flawed, then that means you see errors in the betting market calculus and you should bet! When I saw this price disparity (Trump having 67% chance of winning despite only small leads in the polls) I fully expected once books moved their limits to $50,000 and $100,000+ that groups/bettors would drop some big money on Harris. Eventually that action hit as books took heavy Harris action and quickly tightened up the market in the last two days. When the books adjusted based on this flow of action, Trump dropped to -130 and settled there…which implies a 56.52% implied probability of winning…far closer to what the actual data suggests in polling and especially the key battleground polling. Pennsylvania is key…and the data in PA shows us a deeper look at why this market moved. Trump was -130 to -150 to win PA up to the past week, and most of those betting markets have dropped Trump’s PA odds to a coin toss at -110 for Trump to win PA, but -120 for Harris to win PA. So yes, these markets show PA being a very close race where Trump is behind by a very tiny margin. If Trump loses PA, and Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin based on the recent poll shift…it’s game over for Trump. He needs PA if he is losing MI and WI. The Electoral College with PA going to Harris and all other polling correct would have Trump losing 268-270…tight! If Trump gets PA, and even if Harris holds MI and WI…he likely wins barring some shocks somewhere else. If Trump loses PA, he needs to win either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump’s Michigan odds are +180, his Wisconsin odds are +110. If he wins Wisky, but loses PA, he wins. Odds would say his best odds of winning the US Presidency would be to take PA. Which makes me think, betting Trump to win PA at -110 might be better than Trump to win the election at -130 to -140 based on the…