Choice Commodity Research

Dollar Update The dollar index hovered near 99 amid easing inflation concerns from a tentative US-Iran peace deal and softer US PCE data. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, despite ongoing uncertainty over Trump’s approval of the proposed agreement. -Choice Broking

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Buy ZINC|30JUN26 in Commodity @ 368.1 SL 367.25 TGT 369.80

Rupee Update The Indian rupee strengthened near 95.5 per dollar on Optimism over a US-Iran ceasefire extension and weaker oil prices supported sentiment, though volatility from global equity index rebalancing kept the currency under pressure. -Choice Broking

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Buy NATURALGAS|23JUN26 CE 320.00 in Commodity @ 16.55 SL 15.2 TGT 19.25

Global Commodity Market Heatmap Global equity indices are experiencing a mixed session, with minor declines in major US indexes (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ) but gains in Japan's Nikkei 225. In the commodities sector, energy prices are generally down—notably Crude Oil WTI and Brent—while natural gas ticks higher. Meanwhile, precious metals like gold and silver are trading slightly up, the US dollar (USD) shows marginal strength against a mixed basket of major currencies.

Sumeet Bagadia's Desk: Commodity Momentum Pick: Buy ALUMINIUM- JUL @ 387.25,add on dips till 386, for the Target 400.35, with SL @ 380.70

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Buy ALUMINIUM|30JUN26 in Commodity @ 387.25 SL 380.7 TGT 400.35

*US Crude Oil Inventories* Actual : -3.3M Forecast: -3.8M Prev.: -7.9M Impact: Negative for Crude Oil *US Distillate Inventories* Actual : -2.1M MForecast: -1.9M Prev.: 0.4M Impact : Positive for Crude Oil *US Gasoline Inventories* Actual : -2.6M Forecast: -2.7M Prev.: -1.5M Impact : Neutral for Crude Oil

*Aluminium Update* Aluminum prices rose as fears of production cuts in China and ongoing Middle East supply disruptions boosted prices. Concerns grew after reports of energy and emissions inspections forcing Chinese smelters to curb output despite strong production levels. -Choice Broking

Natural gas Update Natural gas prices surged as lower domestic production, a drop seen in inventory storage, recovering LNG exports, rising summer cooling demand, and restricted Middle East LNG supplies strengthened market sentiment. -Choice Broking

*US Natural Gas Storage* Actual : 92B Forecast: 96B Prev.: 101B Impact: Positive for NG

*Geopolitical Update* U.S. Treasury yields and dollar fall after Axios reports US and Iran reach deal to extend ceasefire; yield on 10-year Treasury notes last down 2.8 basis points at 4.453% -Choice Broking

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Target Achieved @ 8422...Sell in Commodity CRUDEOILM|18JUN26 @ 8742 SL 8901 TGT 8424.00

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Stopped Out @ 1351.45...Sell in Commodity COPPER|30JUN26 @ 1349.4 SL 1351.4 TGT 1345.40

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk : Book Part Profit @ 8588...Sell in Commodity CRUDEOILM|18JUN26 @ 8742 SL 8901 TGT 8424.00

Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk:Sell COPPER|30JUN26 in Commodity @ 1349.4 SL 1351.4 TGT 1345.40

*Put Ratio Spread* Sumeet Bagadia’s Desk: Buy NATURALGAS 305 PE 23-Jun 1 lot @ 20.40 Sell NATURALGAS 290 PE 23-Jun 2 lots @ 12.65 Buy NATURALGAS 280 PE 23-Jun 1 lot @ 8.55 Max loss: 4562.50 above 305 (on expiry) Max profit of 14,187.50 at 290 (on expiry) Max profit of 1687.50 below 280 (on expiry) Margin required: 99,288 Risk-Reward : 1 : 3 Breakeven: 301.40 (Duration: 1 month)