One Point Trading

This is the historical price action of BTC during NVDA earnings. The results are pretty mixed. However, it is worth noting that if NVDA misses earnings, BTC is almost guaranteed to dump as well—just like in May 2025, when NVDA missed expectations and BTC dropped -5%. In my opinion, as long as they don't miss earnings, price action will likely trend flat because the market has already priced in an NVDA earnings beat.

Today's big event is the NVDA earnings report, which will inject volatility into the market, including BTC. The current consensus estimates place revenue in the range of $78 billion to $79 billion, with EPS around $1.76 to $1.77. There will be a dump effect if NVDA misses its earnings.

The biggest mistake traders make is thinking "This time is different." However, if we look back and compare it to previous bear markets, the pattern is always the same.Price drops -> Consolidation pattern -> Rejection from the 200 daily SMA -> Second drop occurs.Even in the 2026 bear market so far, the pattern remains the same. Will this pattern repeat itself once again? History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

VT : https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSxrGQMRc/ Macro factor menjadi main driver dari pergerakan risk on asset saat ini. Ketika LT yield naik, maka investor semakin tidak percaya dengan prospek ekonomi AS. Harap waspada, ini bisa menjadi trigger untuk pelemahan BTC lebih lanjut.

There still hasn’t been much change since my last update, where I expected further weakness in risk-on assets. One of the key drivers is the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields. Simply put, rising long-term yields suggest that investors are becoming less confident in the long-term outlook of the US economy. As yields continue to rise, investors are likely to rotate into safer alternative assets, shifting the overall investment environment toward a risk-off sentiment. BTC and crypto are considered high-risk assets, so this rise in yields could continue to put pressure on the broader crypto market as a whole.

BTC weekly candlestick close bearish engulfing, This is how bearish we are right now.

BTC recorded worst ETF netflow since the end of the week in January. Net outflow at -$1 billion. Not looking good.

Besides going long COIN and CRCL in U.S. stocks, an interesting proxy play in the crypto market could be Aerodrome, which is the biggest DEX in the Base ecosystem. My thesis is simple: if the Clarity Act gets approved, it could accelerate Coinbase’s efforts to launch a $BASE token. Given that Aerodrome is the largest DEX on Base, there is strong potential for it to become the primary liquidity venue for the Base token. Potentially one of the best proxy bets if the Clarity Act gets approved.

By the way, if the Clarity Act gets approved, one of the biggest beneficiaries would likely be Circle and Coinbase, as they would emerge as regulated winners. The trade I’m looking to target if the Clarity Act gets approved is going long Circle and Coinbase in the U.S. stock market.

Overall, the market structure remains unchanged since the last update. BTC has slightly lost momentum at current price levels, and the market is still feeling the impact of yesterday’s hotter-than-expected PPI. But surprisingly, the equity market remains resilient due to the euphoria surrounding all-time highs (ATH). At some point, even a relatively small wave of large selling could trigger a cascade of liquidations, potentially leading to a major dump. However, as long as the market continues to hold at current levels, a continuation of the rally is still possible. Note that the equity market is currently in a euphoric phase, which makes price movements harder to predict. No action needed.

First readout statement from the Trump-Xi meeting. Nothing burger — the market anticipated it well.

Hotter than expected, might not be good.

CPI 0.6% MoM, Exp. 0.6% CPI 3.8% YoY, Exp 3.7% CPI Core 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI Core 2.8% YoY, Exp. 2.7%

Price action for BTC looks bearish on the intraday time frame. A break under $80.2k creates significant potential for continued weakness toward $78k, which has been the anticipated area for the past few days. The clear picture right now is that the market is de-risking ahead of the CPI report coming out in the next few hours. The CPI report will determine the direction for risk-on assets: CPI Hotter than expected: Market will dump. CPI Softer than expected: Market will pump. CPI Inline with expectations: Potential for neutral-bullish momentum in the short term. Keep a close eye on this.

This CPI report feels more significant than usual. It could turn out to be the hottest inflation print (highest) in nearly the past two years. Current market consensus stands at: - CPI (Headline): 3.7% YoY - CPI (Core): 2.7%–2.8% - Kalshi (prediction market): Also pricing in 3.7% The US government shutdown back in October temporarily distorted rent data lower. Now, that effect is reversing, and several banks estimate that rent inflation/OER (Owners’ Equivalent Rent) could nearly double from its normal monthly pace. At the same time: 1. Energy prices in the Middle East remain elevated. 2. Food inflation is starting to creep back up. 3. Ongoing AI supply chain demand is still putting pressure on electronics prices. 4. The impact of US tariffs is still being felt. Will be interesting.

Entering the 94th day, BTC continues to move sideways within a consolidation area. Do you think the breakout from the ATH (All-Time High) resistance trend line is valid? I don't think so, at least not yet. Volume tends to be declining, and the price is still respecting the flag pattern for now. Additionally, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains a strong area of dynamic resistance. The overall thesis remains the same: this is a bear market rally.

The STRC premium is well-timed with BTC price movements because whenever STRC is trading above par value, the Strategy can activate the ATM (At-The-Market) issuance feature, which creates short-term buying pressure for BTC. This time, we must be cautious regarding the upcoming dividend date on May 15th. We consistently see the STRC price drop significantly below its par value following the dividend record date. No premium = no ATM issuance; no ATM issuance = no big buys in the BTC market. There is a potential for a temporary loss of buying pressure from the Strategy.

This is a comparison chart between BTC and ZEC, where we can observe an interesting correlation between the two. BTC consistently finds a local top whenever ZEC (specifically the privacy token narrative) rallies. As for the current condition, we can see ZEC rallying from a low of around $190 to the $560 range. In the past, privacy rallies have typically signaled the end of a bull run and the arrival of a major correction. Will it be the same this time? It’s possible, which means we should be more cautious.