MARKET ANALYSIS

📊Week Ahead: ISM Services PMI & FOMC Minutes to Test Fed Rate Expectations The U.S. Dollar ended the week under pressure following a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI. However, the broader macro narrative remains far from dovish. While crude oil has largely returned to pre-conflict levels, the lagged inflationary effects of the Middle East energy shock continue to shape central bank expectations. In the week ahead, investors will focus on key U.S. services data and the FOMC Minutes for fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. 1️⃣United States (USD) 🇺🇸 🔹 NFP Weakness vs. Warsh’s Hawkish Stance: June’s softer labor report and the decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 53.3 prompted markets to modestly scale back near-term rate hike expectations. The probability of a July hike has fallen to 18%, although markets continue to fully price a 25-basis-point hike by December. 🔹 The Sintra Message: The Dollar’s downside remained limited after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed at the ECB Sintra Forum that the Federal Reserve will not tolerate inflation remaining above target and emphasized the institution’s independence from political influence. 🔹 ISM Services PMI & FOMC Minutes: Monday’s ISM Services PMI will be closely monitored, as the services sector accounts for roughly 90% of U.S. economic activity. Particular attention will be paid to the Prices Paid component following the elevated manufacturing reading. 🔹 Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes: Investors will look for further insight into the Committee’s inflation outlook and policy debate. With several policymakers already favoring at least one additional rate hike this year, a hawkish tone could lift Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar while pressuring Gold and richly valued equity sectors. 2️⃣New Zealand (NZD) 🇳🇿 🔹 RBNZ Policy Decision (Wednesday): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points after stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data. 🔹 Forward Guidance Matters: Since a rate hike is largely priced in, the New Zealand Dollar’s reaction will depend primarily on the Bank’s forward guidance. Any indication of additional tightening later this year would provide further support for the Kiwi. 3️⃣Eurozone (EUR) 🇪🇺 🔹 ECB Meeting Accounts (Thursday): The European Central Bank will publish the minutes from its latest policy meeting, where officials delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike and revised inflation projections higher. 🔹 Rate Path Outlook: Markets currently assign roughly a 30% probability to another rate increase later this month. Evidence of broad support for consecutive hikes would strengthen the Euro by reinforcing expectations of further policy tightening. 4️⃣Canada (CAD) 🇨🇦 🔹 Employment Report (Friday): The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure following weaker oil prices and a cautious Bank of Canada. 🔹 Potential Catalyst: A stronger-than-expected June employment report could trigger a meaningful relief rally in the Loonie by improving expectations for domestic economic resilience. 5️⃣China (CNY) 🇨🇳 🔹 Inflation Data (Thursday): China’s June CPI and PPI releases will provide an important update on domestic demand following the normalization of energy markets and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹 Global Implications: The data will also offer valuable insight into global manufacturing demand and could influence broader risk sentiment across commodity and Asia-Pacific currencies. ⚠️Trading Advisory: Markets remain caught between softer U.S. macro data and the Federal Reserve’s persistent anti-inflation stance. If Monday’s ISM Services Prices Paid index surprises to the upside or Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes reinforce a broadly hawkish policy outlook, expectations for additional tightening could quickly recover—supporting the U.S. Dollar while increasing pressure on Gold, equities, and other risk-sensitive assets.

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🌐Market Outlook 📊US Jobs Report Shock: Dollar and Yields Retreat as NFP Cools June’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) delivered a significant downside surprise, pointing to a cooling labor market and easing near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve. 🔹 Employment Slows Sharply: The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the consensus forecast of 110,000. In addition, payrolls for April and May were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs. 🔹 Participation Falls, Wage Growth Lags: The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, ending a four-month streak at 4.3%. However, the improvement was largely driven by 720,000 workers leaving the labor force, pushing the participation rate down to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased 3.5% YoY, remaining below May’s 4.2% inflation rate. 🔹 Yields & Fed Expectations: The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield declined by 4 basis points to 4.14%, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low around 100.69–100.87 as market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike dropped from 67% to 50%. 🇺🇸U.S. Independence Day Holiday: Thin Liquidity Conditions Because Independence Day (July 4) falls on a Saturday this year, the federal holiday is officially observed today. 🔹 Markets Closed: All major U.S. cash equity exchanges, including the NYSE and NASDAQ, along with the U.S. Treasury cash market, remain closed. 🔹 Shortened Futures Session: U.S. futures markets continue trading on a shortened holiday schedule. 🔹 Liquidity Warning: With New York cash markets offline, global liquidity is significantly reduced. Any unexpected macro or geopolitical headlines may trigger outsized price swings. 🛢Hormuz Transit Rebounds Despite Iranian Military Ultimatum While diplomatic de-escalation efforts continue, military rhetoric surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated. 🔹 Tehran’s Navigation Warning: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command warned that commercial vessels must follow navigation routes designated by Tehran or face a “forceful response.” Iranian officials also criticized continued U.S. aerial patrols over the Strait. 🔹 CENTCOM Response: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reaffirmed its commitment—alongside regional allies—to maintaining free and uninterrupted commercial navigation. 🔹 Supply Recovery Keeps Oil Capped: According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, weekly vessel transits have rebounded to 258 ships, compared with 138 during the peak of the blockade. With Saudi Aramco exports recovering to roughly 90% of pre-conflict levels and the Brent futures curve remaining in contango, Brent crude continues trading near $72.15 per barrel and is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. 🥇Spot Gold Reclaims the $4,100 Level Gold benefited from the weaker Dollar and falling Treasury yields following the softer U.S. employment report. 🔹 Technical Recovery: Spot Gold (XAU/USD) advanced more than 2%, trading between $4,123.96 and $4,180.02 per ounce. The rebound partially offsets June’s sharp 12% decline, the steepest monthly drop since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. 🔹 ETF Outflows Ease: Although global gold ETF holdings recently fell to their lowest level since September 2025 at 96.72 million ounces, lower real yields have encouraged renewed physical and speculative demand. 📌Trading Advisory: Yesterday’s softer NFP report has reduced immediate Fed tightening expectations and weakened the U.S. Dollar. However, today’s holiday-thinned liquidity means even modest geopolitical developments or macro headlines could generate disproportionate market moves. Risk management remains essential heading into the weekend.

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📊U.S. Employment Report – Full Market Scenarios 🇺🇸 🔜Release Time: 12:30 GMT The U.S. Employment Report is one of the most closely watched economic releases, providing key insights into labor market conditions and influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. ⸻ 🟢Dovish Scenario (Weaker Labor Market) Conditions: NFP ≤ 50K Unemployment Rate ≥ 4.5% Average Hourly Earnings YoY ≤ 3.2% Interpretation: A weaker labor market would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts and signal slowing economic momentum. Market Reaction: 💵 USD weakens 📈 Equities rise 📉 Bond yields fall 📈 Gold rallies Trade Ideas: AUDUSD BUY XAUUSD BUY ⸻ ⚖️Neutral Scenario (In Line with Expectations) Conditions: NFP ≈ 110K Unemployment Rate ≈ 4.3% Average Hourly Earnings YoY ≈ 3.5% Interpretation: Data broadly in line with expectations is unlikely to generate a sustained directional move. Markets may remain range-bound while awaiting further catalysts. Market Reaction: Limited directional movement Short-term volatility No clear trend ⸻ 🔴Hawkish Scenario (Stronger Labor Market) Conditions: NFP ≥ 160K Unemployment Rate ≤ 4.1% Average Hourly Earnings YoY ≥ 3.7% Interpretation: Strong employment and wage growth would support a more hawkish Fed outlook, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts. Market Reaction: 💵 USD strengthens 📉 Equities decline 📈 Bond yields rise 📉 Gold weakens Trade Ideas: SPX SELL EURUSD SELL ⸻ ⚠️Important Trading Notes The Employment Report is one of the highest-impact U.S. economic releases. Markets react not only to the NFP figure, but also to the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Expect sharp volatility immediately after the release, with the primary trend often developing once the initial reaction subsides. Always apply proper risk management during high-impact news events.

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🌐Market Outlook 🗓The Accelerated NFP Showdown: Today’s Absolute Macro Anchor Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026 Due to the U.S. Independence Day federal holiday on Friday, the official U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) labor report has been accelerated to hit the wires today. This stands as the single most critical trend-setting catalyst of the month for global markets. 🔹 The Projections: Wall Street consensus projects the economy added between 110K and 115K new jobs in June. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hover near 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% MoM. 🔹 The Policy Impact: Today’s report will provide the blueprint for newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s restrictive monetary policy path. 🔹 Intraday Scenario Analysis: 🟢 Hot Labor Print: Highly Bullish for the USD and Treasury Yields; sharply Bearish for Gold, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq. This outcome gives the Fed greater confidence to maintain its active tightening-extension bias. 🟡 Moderate Miss: Likely to trigger an immediate dovish relief rally across high-beta risk assets and Gold, while weighing on the U.S. Dollar. 🔴 Severe Capitulation (Very Weak Print): Would rapidly shift the narrative toward Recession / Hard Landing fears, triggering a volatile global risk-off move rather than a conventional dovish rally. 🔹 Release Time: 12:30 GMT 💸USD/JPY Deep in the Danger Zone: Extreme Asymmetric Intervention Risk The USD/JPY pair remains tightly compressed within the critical 162.00–163.00 structural liquidity zone. 🔹 The Macro Friction: While a stronger-than-expected NFP could propel the pair toward fresh highs, the market is operating directly beneath a significant asymmetric risk ceiling. 🔹 The Ministry of Finance Threshold: Trading at these multi-decade highs substantially increases the probability of a sudden, multi-billion-dollar intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. 🔹 Trading Outlook: Chasing long positions at these levels offers a highly unfavorable risk-to-reward profile. Any official intervention could trigger an immediate multi-hundred-pip decline. Strict trailing stops remain essential ahead of today’s NFP release. 🛢Crude Plummets on Doha Progress: Geopolitical Premium Evaporates Crude oil remains under heavy selling pressure as technical negotiations between Washington and Tehran in Doha continue to make visible progress. 🔹 The Supply Readout: Algorithmic trading desks continue unwinding the remaining geopolitical risk premium. Brent Crude has declined toward $70.90, while WTI has eased to approximately $67.90. 🔹 The OPEC+ Factor: Adding to bearish sentiment, markets are increasingly pricing in a potential production quota increase from OPEC+ beginning in August. 🔹 Macro Impact: Lower crude prices significantly ease near-term global inflation concerns, providing a supportive backdrop for equity markets. Nevertheless, this remains a binary geopolitical setup—any collapse in the Doha negotiations could rapidly reverse the move. 📊Pre-Holiday Liquidity Drain: Elevated Risk of Asymmetric Opening Gaps Today’s market structure presents several unique liquidity challenges that traders should not underestimate. 🔹 The Market Constraints: U.S. cash equity markets will remain closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day, while fixed-income markets will close early today. 🔹 The Volatility Trap: Markets must absorb the month’s most important macro release within a compressed trading window. As institutions reduce exposure ahead of the long holiday weekend, liquidity is expected to deteriorate sharply, increasing the likelihood of erratic price action and significant opening gaps on Monday. 📌Trading Advisory: Today’s session combines the month’s most important macro release with exceptionally thin pre-holiday liquidity. Spreads are expected to widen significantly during the 12:30 GMT release window. Avoid chasing initial algorithmic moves, maintain conservative leverage, and carefully manage overnight and weekend exposure.

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