Trading and Economics

🇺🇸 US Wages Growth Below Forecasts Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1%, over a month to $36.86 in November 2025, following a 0.4% rise in October and below market forecasts of 0.3%. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $31.76. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%.

🇺🇸 US Retail Sales Stall Retail sales in the US flattened in October from September 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in the previous period, below forecasts of a 0.1% rise. Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, soared 0.8%

🇺🇸 US Unemployment Rate Climbs to September-2021 HIgh The US unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November 2025 from 4.3% in August, exceeding market expectations of 4.4% and marking the highest level since Septmeber 2021. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.

🇺🇸 US Private Employment Rises for 2nd Week US private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 29, 2025, following a downwardly revised average gain of 2,750 jobs in the previous period. This marked the second consecutive period of job gains, signaling a potential rebound in hiring after four weeks of job losses, according to ADP Research.

🇭🇺 Hungary Keeps Rates Steady for 15th Meeting The National Bank of Hungary kept its key interest rate at 6.50% on December 16, extending its pause for a 15th straight meeting, in line with market expectations. The overnight deposit and collateralized loan rates also remained at 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively.

🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan Inflation Eases in November Kyrgyzstan’s annual inflation rate slowed to 9.2% in November 2025 from 9.3% in the previous month. Main downward pressure came from softer price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (10.5% vs 10.6% in October), housing and utilities (14.7% vs 16.2%), healthcare (11.5% vs 11.8%), and transport (6.2% vs 6.9%). On the other hand, inflation increased further for household appliances (3.8% vs 2.6%), recreation and culture (8.5% vs 7.5%), and miscellaneous goods and services (11.5% vs 9.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.1% in November, easing from a 1.5% increase in the preceding period.

🇲🇦 Morocco Factory Output Growth Slows in Q3 Manufacturing production in Morocco rose by 2.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slowing from a 7% growth in the previous three-month period, partly reflecting base effects. The main positive contributors were food industries ( 11.3%), other non-metallic mineral products ( 12.2%), chemical industry ( 4.3%), motor vehicles ( 7.4%), rubber and plastic products ( 16.2%), and other transport equipment ( 19.9%). Conversely, declines were seen in tobacco products (-28.4%), pharmaceuticals (-17.3%), metal products, excluding machinery (-6.6%), and metallurgy (-8.0%).

🇮🇳 Indian Stocks Fall for 2nd Day India's BSE Sensex finished about 0.6% down at 84,680 on Tuesday, extending losses from the prior day, amid sustained foreign fund outflows and uncertainty around the timing and shape of a potential India–US trade deal. In the meantime, traders assessed flash PMI data and awaited key US jobs data due later in the day for clues on the Fed's rate path. Axis Bank slid 5%, underperforming, after brokerage Citi warned that pressure on net interest margins could persist into the December quarter. Eternal, HCL Technologies, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv also posted significant declines, with losses ranging from 1.9% to 4.6%.

🇮🇱 Israel Economy Expands 11% in Q3 Israel’s economy expanded by 11% at an annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025, below the preliminary estimate of 12.4% growth, but recovering sharply from an upwardly revised 4.8% contraction in the second quarter. It marked the fastest GDP growth since the first quarter of 2024, mainly boosted by surges in private consumption (21.6%) and fixed investment (34%). Additionally, government spending grew by 4.4% and net trade contributed positively, with exports (16.9%) rising more than imports (13.7%). On a quarterly basis, the Israeli economy grew by 2.6% in Q3 2025.

🇺🇾 Uruguay GDP Expands at Softer Pace in Third Quarter Uruguay’s GDP expanded 1.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from a 2.2% growth in the previous quarter as activity softened across several key sectors. On the positive side, trade, accommodation, and food and beverage services rose 5.4%, while financial services grew 3.0%. Health, education, real estate activities, and other services also contributed, with a combined increase of 0.8%. In contrast, manufacturing contracted 2.1%, construction declined 3.1%, and agriculture, fishing, and mining edged down 0.2%, weighing on overall growth. Gross value added increased 0.8%, while net taxes on products rose a solid 4.3%.

🇮🇹 Italy Trade Surplus Narrows Less than Expected Italy’s trade surplus narrowed to EUR 4.16 billion in October 2025 from the EUR 4.62 billion in the same month a year earlier, but it was above market expectations of EUR 3.22 billion, as exports grew less than imports. Exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year to EUR 58.56 billion, supported by higher sales to both EU ( 0.5%) and non-EU ( 4.1%) markets. The sectors contributing most to the growth were pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals, and botanicals ( 18.5%) and basic metals and fabricated metal products, excluding machinery and equipment ( 13.7%). Among key trading partners, exports grew mostly to Switzerland ( 34.9%), the United States ( 9.7%), OPEC countries ( 15.8%), Spain ( 7.3%), and France ( 3.7%). Meanwhile, imports rose faster at 3.4% to EUR 54.41 billion, with non-EU ( 4.2%) rising more sharply than those from the EU markets ( 2.7%).

Soybean Futures Hit Seven-Week Low Soybean futures slipped toward $10.70 a bushel, hitting a seven-week low, as concerns over slowing US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian harvest weighed on the market. Chinese purchases of US soybeans have been sluggish, with confirmed sales since late October totaling just 3.516 million tonnes, well below the market’s 12 million tonnes expectation, keeping sentiment subdued. US export inspections for the week ending Dec. 11, 2025, fell 22% from the previous week and 46% year-on-year, while speculative funds hold sizable net long positions, increasing the risk of liquidations. On the supply front, Brazilian soybean planting is 97% complete, and expectations of a bumper South American harvest continue to weigh on prices.

Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens in October The Eurozone’s trade surplus widened to €18.4 billion in October 2025 from €7.1 billion a year earlier, as exports rose 1.0% while imports declined 3.6%. In the broader EU, the trade surplus also rose to €14.7 billion compared with €3.1 billion in October 2024. EU exports edged up 1.0% to €258.0 billion, due to higher sales of machinery

Eurozone Investor Morale at 5-Month High, Tops Forecasts The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area climbed by 8.7 points from the prior month to 33.7 in December 2025, the highest reading in five months. Figures came above market forecasts of 26.3. In December, about 57.1% of the surveyed analysts expected no changes in economic activity, 38.3% predicted improvement and 4.6% anticipated a deterioration.

🇺🇸 US Non Farm Payrolls Seen at 50K in November US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 50,000 in November 2025. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a 2021 high of 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are seen increasing by 0.3%. The delayed November jobs report is likely to confirm a continued cooling in the labour market, with employment gains remaining concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October Employment Situation report due to the government shutdown and the inability to retroactively collect sufficient data. As a result, only partial labour market figures for October will be released, and the unemployment rate will not be reported.

🇩🇪 Germany Investor Morale Improves Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose sharply to 45.8 in December 2025, the highest in five months, compared to 38.5 in November and well above forecasts of 38.5. On the other hand, the current conditions gauge worsened to -81, the lowest since May, from -78.7 in April and compared to forecasts of -80.

🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan Industrial Output Jumps 12.7% in November Industrial production in Kyrgyzstan climbed by 12.7% year-on-year in November 2025, picking up from a 2.2% increase in October. The acceleration was primarily driven by a sharp rebound in the manufacturing sector (14.9% vs -0.5% in October), particularly in basic metals (16.2% vs -5.3%), food products and tobacco (9.5% vs -6.3%), and coke and refined petroleum products (23.3% vs 4.1%). Meanwhile, output growth slowed in water supply (21.7% vs 24.3%), electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (2.9% vs 8.9%), and mining and quarrying (1.7% vs 21.6%). For the January–October 2025 period, industrial activity was 10% higher than in the same period a year earlier.

🇬🇧 UK Private Sector Growth Quickens in December The UK S

🇬🇧 UK Services PMI Surpasses Expectations The S

🇮🇹 Italy November Inflation Revised Down to 1.1% Italy’s annual inflation slowed to 1.1% in November 2025, revising lower from preliminary estimates and October’s 1.2%. This marked the lowest level since October 2024, driven by a sharp drop in regulated energy prices (–3.2% vs –0.5% in October), alongside softer increases in unprocessed food (1.1% vs 1.9%), processed food (2.1% vs 2.5%), transport services (0.9% vs 2.0%), and recreational, cultural, and personal care services (3.0% vs 3.3%). Goods inflation also slowed to 0.1% from 0.2% and services inflation cooled to 2.3% from 2.6%. These effects were partly offset by a smaller decline in unregulated energy prices (–4.3% vs –4.9%). Meanwhile, core inflation eased to an eight-month low of 1.7% from 1.9%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2%, consistent with initial estimates, following a 0.3% drop in October. The harmonized consumer prices rose 1.1% on an annual basis, and fell 0.2% on a monthly basis.