Yurta Capital
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Scott Osheroff is an adventure investor, sharing his views on the world and how he's allocating capital. Email: Scott@yurtacapital.com Twitter: @frontiervalueh1 Nothing mentioned within this channel should be considered investment advice.
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پست‌های کانال
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/10/08/will-bonds-blow-up
The Economist cover is appropriate timing as global yields go crazy. Nothing goes up in a straight line and it feels like we are getting closer to wanting to buy interest rate sensitive securities.
| 2 |  The Yurta model portfolio had a slight dip in September, reaching USD 211,358.8 (including USD 49,357 in cash), up 111.3% since inception in 2023. That's a 15.13% total return per annum.
During September we added a small sum to Keo Capital and otherwise remained quiet. The market is facing a headwind of higher yields, a stronger USD, and uncertainty around the Fed (I don't imagine many more, if any rate hikes). Breadth remains terrible and tech/AI continues to force the market higher. It continues to feel like much is broken. While I've said that for months now, the goal is to have the cash buffer to benefit when things fall precipitously, rather than always being fully invested. Boring it is, but it's part of the job!
Once the market realizes the Fed is done (and set to lower rates) I think there will be a big opportunity in rate sensitive plays, specifically housing (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and some niche mortgage service companies). | 275 |
| 3 | Brazil was impressive with the move to the right with this weekends election. And the strong double digit moves in Brazilian equities yesterday. Now we wait for the runoff on 25th October.
Regarding names I'd buy on a pullback and add to the model portfolio are:
The Brazilian Stock Exchange (BOLSY)
and the MSCI Brazil small caps ETF (EWZS)
Keep it simple. Small caps will perform after a decade and a half downtrend and the exchange will benefit from more volume and foreign capital inflows. | 342 |
| 4 | Gold is breaking down. The USD remains strong. Oil may be getting through Hormuz but Saudi energy infrastructure keeps getting hit and Trump doesn't know how to back down..post mid terms will be interesting...so food and enegy importers will keep selling assets to get USD to buy food and energy. How long this lasts I have no clue, but something will have to be done to bring bond yields in check (even though they are going much higher longer term). I will put out the Yurta portfolio update in a day or two, but it just feels like there are so many cross currents, nothing is particularly cheap and sitting in wait is the beat strategy.
Commodities companies are still attractive and I like Brazil as previously stated. But we have elections this weekend and then likely a runoff as it's unlikely anyone wins majority vote. South America is interesting because it produces food. And I'm seeing increasing stress in fertilizer and grain markets. Everyone is giddy enegy and metals. Very few are talking food..I think this is the next inflation wave spark. Will revolutions come with it? | 538 |
| 5 |  +1For anyone travelling through Central Asia Kyrgyzstan is a useful visit to see a baseline economy. There are some things happening here which could make it an interesting financial services hub for private business. | 545 |
| 6 |  As I've said since the Iran war started, it's not getting resolved soon. That made me lighten up and discuss in some interviews that gold was going lower. I remember 2008 well where oversold meant nothing. We had a nice gold bounce the past few months as the reality of a rate hike set in. Now we have energy restrictions re emerging. Gold will be sold by developing markets for hard currency to buy food and energy. It will be a,gift to buy it from them sub 3k as I've stated previously.
In the meantime, the fertilizer and broader ag complex remains interesting as higher energy prices mean higher food prices. | 613 |
| 7 | The oil market bottlenecks in the Gulf aren't going to be resolved soon. Diesel prices are at ATH which means refined product importing countries will get hurt badly..diesel and ferts are life, more or less.
This was my thesis when the war started. Now it's coming home to roost after SPRs have been drained and excess inventory mopped up.
As this reality comes into focus over the coming weeks and months my increasing focus is once the world finally panics on this matter, when gets hurt the most which then becomes attractive to move into, where valuations get extremely depressed? Bonds? Real estate? Consumer manufacturing companies with exposure to Frontier and emerging markets? (Uzbekistan should be just fine amid all this courtesy of decades of import substitution, so long as Russia doesn't blanket ban refined product exports..they have localized fertilizer production and God's given gift of an abundance of gold to buy what they need).
I'm keeping a general eye out but if anyone has specific ideas, feel free to reach out @Adventureinvestor | 731 |
| 8 |  It will be interesting to see how hard oil rips into the US mid terms. Iran has a big incentive after 6m of forcing US to draw barrels from the SPR. Meanwhile we remain long Ecopetrol and Petrobras, as well as Keo Capital which we may add to. See the South American bias away from the increasing middle east intensity.
For those here a while, I said years ago we were in a new world of balkanization, away from globalization. This has happened in parallel with what I hate to say is a new WW. If one thinks Ukraine and Iran and now Yemen are different wars, they are wrong. This is all connected and will unfortunately likely only intensify, accelerating balkanization and driving inefficiency in global supply chains. That means rising demand for real assets - exactly how the model portfolio is positioned. | 803 |
| 9 | Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the mortgage housing giants in USA which were nationalized as a result of government imprudence in 2008, approving garbage bonds that led to the financial meltdown. The companies were put into conservstorship and have been rebuilding their capital bases since the GFC.
Things have been getting interesting as Trump over the years has hinted at releasing them from conservstorship and raising fresh capital. Bill Pulte is the head of the FHFA and is tasked with overseeing the future of these entities and is likely in place to re-privatize them. These are amazing businesses and screaming cheap, but the government has warrants to purchase 79.9% of FNMA at effectively zero cost. This is the overhang...dilution risk.
What's interesting to me is if they are released from conservstorship, they could be a $30-$50 stocks. Currently trading at FNMA: $5.74 FMCC $5.11. The upside is obvious and the downside is aggressive government dilution and a capital raise but I think today's share prices reflects only moderate downside. So you're looking at a rough floor in todays prices and potential 6-10x upside on American housing and the companies are growing double digits while trading at single digit P/Es with strong ROE.
🚨 I own shares in both companies at a 2.5% weight. There's dilution risk, but that's variable if it happens at all, depending on whether the government takes full benefit of its warrants, and the upside is significant. The only issue is time, but that's the case with many investments I have. Patience is required for multi-bagger returns. | 621 |
| 10 | The Yurta model portfolio had a nice rebound in August $212,050.99 (including USD 54,358.8 in cash), up 112.% since inception in 2023. That's a 15.63% total return per annum.
During August I did nothing portfolio wise. But on August 3rd added Keo Capital to the portfolio with a weight of 2.5%. Their Venezuela energy spinoff didn't happen because the valuation of the asset increased as Keo's stake is set to increase to 49%, tenure extended 20 years to 2056, and associated gas will be included, which Keo thinks could be worth more than the oil as it's liquids rich. Venezuela is opening and there are few ways to play it. | 660 |
| 11 |  بدون متن... | 586 |
| 12 | If you flow my friend Sara from Triple S substack, you'll be familiar with her Venezuela play of the Lionheart Capital SPAC supposed to have a Venezuelan onshore 8bln bbl medium oil field vended into it (link below). The 40% owner is KEOC.ST in Sweden, which I own shares of personally, rather than the SPAC.
Yesterday KEOC.ST and Lionheart terminated the deal. KEOC.ST is down over 12% on the news, even as their main business is financials services in LatAm with their key partner being American Express and nothing changed in the last 24h. I look at today's share price over reaction as a gift and will be adding it to the model portfolio.
Plans for carving out the oil biz don't look to have changed. This SPAC just didn't work out.
🚨 not investment advice. Do your own DD.
https://triplesinvesting.substack.com/p/a-venezuela-lottery-ticket-for-41?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=google.com | 725 |
| 13 | Myrmikan's research I always love reading. This is a great analysis on the AI bubble and how it obviously ends...more money printing.
Open the shared document: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:cedf7d2d-5114-4ff7-a8d5-d0d09aec7e0a | 584 |
| 14 | The move last week in precious metals was fun. I don't know where we go from here near term honestly, though long term it's obvious.
In my last interview I said we could head lower even though sentiment was historically bearish in gold. Specifically I said we could bounce and then roll lower...and I still see the potential for a great deleveraging at some point. But in the interim, bounce we did as Bessent announced further monetization of US debt. Hence, while I've deployed cash to get down to about 15%, I'm still at an elevated cash level because crazy things can happen, especially in resources as many eyes are looking at the space and I want asymmetry, not just leverage to rising metals prices.
Therefore, my focus has been on juniors with market caps to NPV of less than 10% who are either fully funded or who will start small and increase their resources through non-dilutive exploration. (Not investment advice: I like LFLR.cn, ESG.v, BNKR.to, VZLA, MCI.v among others)
Further afield, I keep digging into markets IB doesn't touch. You get non-USD exposure here, interesting compounders, and some companies where I think you can get dividend yields in the 60% to 70% range in a few years (after a specific industrial concludes its capacity expansion). More to come on this. I'm not aiming to be cryptic, but don't have positions yet and/or am not done researching. | 759 |
| 15 |  +3When investing it's important to get a proper lay of the land. That means going beyond the largest cities.
I've been to Istanbul a dozen times and along Türkiye's southern coast, but that's not representative of the entire country. The last few days I was in Sanliurfa (after Gaziantep) which is regarded as the birthplace of the prophet Abraham. It's also home to Göbekli Tepe, a 12,000 year old city in Mesopotamia. The contrast from Istanbul in culture, the pace of life and price of everything is immense.
I capped off the trip in the coffee shops pictured here, inside the Sanliurfa bazar on a 41C day, sipping menengic (a "coffee" drink made from wild pistachio) gaining much more appreciation for the geographic crossroads Türkiye sits at.
I also couldn't help but buy 5kg of Aleppo soap! | 627 |
| 16 |  +1Taking a week off from markets to explore Eastern Turkiye, while Istanbul is on everyone's list, the "Turkiye of 30 years ago" with the silk road vibe is alive and well in Gaziantep. The food isn't too bad either (culinary capital of the country). | 766 |
| 17 | I recently had a call where we talked about my mate Kolja Spori, the most well traveled person I know (book of his below for anyone interested).
And the conversation got to investing. While Interactive Brokers is great, one way to front run the crowd is to travel to markets where their stock exchange isn't covered by IB. There's a huge amount of alpha in the world and it's also a good way to be un-correlated with the market and to diversify brokerage exposure. Think Uzbekistan, Peru, Iran, etc.
https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B00N86M6LY?ccs_id=e18eb343-3fd8-4308-9c7b-a9c739bd125e | 892 |
| 18 | This week I caught up with Oliver Mitchell to talk high level about litigation finance plays, as well as some sovereign deals in Venezuela. For anyone interested in the space, his Substack is impressive.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3UkdhmU1lheMPSjpPSSOvV | 914 |
| 19 | Food for thought. America is reindustrializing and this will continue as we rebuild the manufacturing base lost the last 50 yrs and be an investsble trend. July PMI grew the fastest in 4yrs.
Fun fact and a bit of history...America lost its steel dominance not because of Germany, Austria and Japan directly, but because US and Bethlehem Steel were too stubborn to invest in upgrades, even when given government money! American steel thought its dominance would stand even though it was uncompetutive on the global market as foreign producers used new tech.
Pure cycle Technologies is a play I've been watching for a while and own call options on. They recycle plastic into food grade products. Have a plant in USA and are expanding into Europe and Thailand. There are recycling mandates in NJ, for example where a % of new plastic must have recycled material. PCT is now approved to produce food grade plastic, a, first, and therefore a monopoly. It has had production issues in the past and is burning cash as it needs to scale. They report earnings Thursday and it will be interesting to see how business is processing. This is one of those companies that I see being easy to catch once you have real inflection. It's not going to $30 overnight, but assuming they scale and can build additional plants, I think it can be a multi bagger without much competition in a world trying to figure out how to better incorporate waste plastic into the circular economy.
https://investinglive.com/news/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-for-july-55-6-versus-54-0-estimate/ | 835 |
| 20 |  The Yurta model portfolio had another slight correction in July to USD 203,696.96 (including USD 54,358.8 in cash), down from USD 204,383.97 in June. Still up 104.38% since inception.
I've been tempted to add oil exposure, though it is very volatile, hanging on Trump's every word. Chemicals are equally interesting, but I think fertilizer is even more interesting, as previously stated. Potash for one (which is not impacted by Hormuz, but which has been under-applied the last few years) and ammonia in north or south America as the feedstock is natural gas. With Qatari production out of the game you have trapped gas in North America and in Argentina due to the Vaca Muerta shale with a lack of pipeline capacity.
During July I held fast, preferring to keep cash, but CF Industries or Adecoagro may be worth an addition at some point. | 606 |
