Botje11

Fingers on the trigger though

Seeing the first real bounce just now for stocks, maybe this might be it, so gonna wait a little longer

I am selling again, barely happens I sell this fast, I must admit, it’s partially fear. Thing is, todays inflation numbers were much better than expected, market reacted good the first 5 seconds. From there on, no explanation needed. Don’t know what the market wants. Yesterday bounce was super strong, with these good numbers, minimum would have been seeing stocks be stable. But even that is too much too ask. So taking my losses here while they are still small. And prob sitting it out for a while. My alts are still running, but those are smaller sizes and have bled anyway. Not sure, bought them end of 2022, but think I am maybe not even in a profit there anymore, despite btc being 4x the price back then when I bought the alts

Damn, what a crazy day. Bad news earlier today, market didn’t respond a lot, was prob a sign in hindsight. Anyway, I started buying back last hours, not the best price but slightly better than I sold in the weekend when I mentioned it. Had the message typed earlier today around 76/77, but didn’t dare. Just so extremely dangerous, a single tweet can crash the market, was afraid btc was getting very close to danger zone where we could see a snowball of liquidations and that it could drop like 20% in just a few hours. Glad we didn’t get there.

Make sure you don’t bleed out your whole account. You can’t make money if you don’t have any left. Even I am down quite a bit past week and a half, mostly on stock market, but still up a lot when looking at past 2 years. It’s part of the game, we were all spoiled last years, maybe even last 15 years. Let this be a reminder for everyone!! Been hearing a lot of talks about people about market always being up long term etc, but it ain’t that simple.

Glad I closed most my positions in time 😬. This is like a black swan event, no way of telling what will happen next. Nasdaq down almost 25% in a month or so. Up until a week ago, was still thinking of a big rally for equities this year, the last big leg up (and btc would be dragged up as well with it, been my idea since late 2022 as you all know), but now I am not sure at all. Only way this recovers again, if this whole tariff war ends soon. Or at least that the tariffs get cut a lot

Damn, I have seen a few big crashes in my 25 year career, think this one is the biggest in just 1 week

I am going to sell 70/80% of my btc now. Btc held very good yesterday while stocks were dumping very big. By today it’s doing nothing, it’s scared. So afraid might drop this weekend. If not, will rebuy it again. But for now don’t dare to just hold with stock market crash. Don’t know what that will do on Monday. If we see recovery there, assume btc will do something very good

See last update was 3 months ago 🙈. Strange times now, money flowing away from the USA (stocks dumping there big time), why the Dollar has been dropping so much as well lately. Since last week, had a feel btc was trying to outperform stock market, but stocks just kept on dumping and dumping and dumping. Past 2 days btc trying to do the same thing, but with SP500 being down 10%, you need to have big balls to be long here. Good thing mine are big 😆😆, cause I have rebought my btc past days (the ones I sold months ago, I looked like a fool back then 😆, now I look pretty damn smart having done so with a 15/20k discount). Alts I kept back then, those got hammered big time lately. If I think a recovery will start, I might buy some more of those as well. Now it’s not a sure thing the market will rally. In theory, we made that new ATH I said would happen, after we hit the 108 end of 2024. But the new ATH was tiny, so to be honest not what I expected. So, still thinking we get that one final big move up. However, my fingers are on the triggers to sell everything. Simply cause it’s strange times now with everything what is going on. I am not giving it a lot of room on the downside.

Was talking with someone few days ago who asked me what I think. Ignore the time frame, cause won’t take months. But good chance, this current bounce, might still get sold one more time for an even bigger shake out. Unless we pump above 98/100k now. Otherwise that will be my game plan

About the markets, crypto (at least for Bitcoin that is, the rest is unsure) and stocks. My view of the real trend is still bullish for coming period. I am still betting on one more wave up

Funny thing about crypto investors. Rather invest in air, like meme coins, that deflate in matter of time. But something real like QTF, making record volume and dividend (21% dividend on current price) gets sold to record low price! So record profit with a (almost) record low token price 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Think for THE first real correction, a acceleration down has to happen. So like 5k or so within an hour. First small support is around 98/97K, 94K has meaning. 89/90K is a big level. Think if that one breaks, a bigger ABC gets triggered and than a matter of time until we see 80/84K zone.

So it went for the 97/99K zone, pretty nice prediction 😆. But, it's not showing any signs that it wants to dump from here. It still can, but if i had to gamble right now, i would say sooner break of 100k than a dump below 95k. Do think a good correction is a matter of time, but during these parabolic moves like we saw since Trump won (💪), it's almost impossible to make such predictions upfront.

Last part I said “have touched”, meant haven’t touched

The sell at 93k was perfect, but must admit, I expected more of the correction. Anyway, main thing now is this curved shape. Either it pumps big or we see a small break up like 97/99k or so (can’t give an exact number) and then dump big to like 80/85k. That line +- is what we need to watch then.

I am not going to make predictions (yet) to where btc might go coming weeks/months. All I know, and think I mentioned it maybe once or twice, that this region, 80/100k would be very nice. Remember, we’re back at 55/65k. Back then I was hoping for these prices. Now we are here, then it’s not the moment to become greedy. So my plan has come to a succes. Now my hope is that we see an alt season as well. I don’t think it will be as big as 2021 and 2018, but hoping at least 50/30% of that. So I can dump those as well and then it’s good buy for a couple of years I think. At least that was my theory back in 2022/23 when starting to bet for that last big bull run (for stocks and assumption crypto would go along with it). Doesn’t mean I can’t change my mind. For now my view is simple. 1) either I am “right” and this current rally comes close to an end, we correct and make a new high in a few weeks again. Think about 90/110k as THE high. 2) I am completely wrong, and we continue at this speed and get above 110/120k within a week or 2 and we are just at the start of things I am not the hoping kind of person as you know. Rather take my wins each bull run as I have done past 6 years and make my capital grow instead of betting on hope 😃 As said, I have touched my alts, like a hedge in case I am wrong, those should outperform btc soon then.

I am selling another good chunk of my bitcoins (alts gonna keep). In hindsight I was too soon with the first part, but in hindsight it’s easy. Now I think with this triangle breakout we just had, guessing it’s time for a correction. So I still have some, but this part close to 93k together with the other at 86 I sold, I have sold then around 65% of my bitcoins.

I am taking some profits on btc now, 86K Damn :), alts and stuff gonna keep. assume this is just the start. just think btc is getting ahead of its self. so securing some very nice profits and waiting for a buy the dip

Yesterday’s close was again below that level, and as we can see, also didn’t close below the support side either past days. So need to see a good breakout (on either side) to be more sure the move will continue. Cause small breakout leaves a trap breakout possible