#teamstone Crypto Corner

Not unexpected I got zero entries thus far. Max pain probably still up bc lots of people mostly sidelined like me. Won't chase so will wait & see

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2091859386176090296 👀👀

STRATEGY BUYS NO BITCOIN OVER PAST WEEK, INCREASES USD RESERVE BY $1.9B: FILING 🔗 velo.xyz

weekly closed about as strong as it could close. quite siq candle

💡personally I think you need to be a bit more nuanced here. Bull bear continuation here a lot closer than people make it out to be so don't get pressed into either or and be somewhat prepared for both scenarios

CT quite fascinating to read. Exact 50 50 mix of "we are so back it's insane" to "this is the biggest bull tarp I've ever seen" In general the accounts I consider more trustworthy lean more bullish fwiw

https://x.com/LayahHeilpern/status/2091168736141013219 Looks like bottom is in for real🫩🫩🫩

https://x.com/Tradermayne/status/2091201281251741970 👀👀 Quite funny. I am independently extremely aligned with this view. Basically my words written by sb else

https://x.com/TimStone84/status/2091359067369554237?s=20 weekly botting/airdropfarm update

https://youtu.be/d6WmeWCmk-4?si=lBEw24rTbgTGxzVR Some bearish perspective

👀 probably still one of the strongest arguments against early low

🧐 10 10 vs this week: i think ok comparisson on the other side of the spectrum where there was a vibe shift was 10 10. this date was sort of a blessing to me bc it made it very easy for me to switch to bearish when it couldnt hold 114 and subsequently 108k. Everybody who was bullish and bidding was liquidated. there were no more buyers. I managed to fully exit out my BTC on several levels with the last level being the break of 50w sma around 98k or so. My average of all exits with zero BTC remaining was 98k as well. I basically already dca sold from late 2024 onwards being fully flat nov 25 Even though its a bit early to tell similar regime change could currently be taking place so it's worth to pay attention. I really really would like for this to go down to 40k and getting my fills there but I cant be ideological about this and flip bias accordingly. There are basically 4 cohorts in markets: 1. people who flip bias with every 4 hours candle 2. people who never flip bias aka perma bulls and perma bears 3. people who do flip bias but very very very late and basically almost always too late 4. people who dont flip bias often but are willing to change their bias and especially confront their bias if something changes You really really want to be in group 4 here imo. The 2nd best option is usually being perma bull but strong cohort 4 will always outperform permabull & also have more peace of mind

✍🏽 needless to say I will switch from waiting for new lows to dip buying with a good chunk bc I feel I don't have the exposure I want here. However I won't chase aggressively and given how strong this is I might just be left in the dust... If this goes without me I have still enough crypto to not be suicidal but obv not nearly enough to feel great about it. Biggest nightmare scenario would be something like 2019 but with more downside later own and I want to also have dry powder for this. The faster this moves the more weak hands it will attract. I think from 70 onwards there have already been a good chunk of people attracted that will puke any significant drawdown. So far so good. But let's imajin over 4 weeks this sends to 110k. The amount of weak hands in by then would be quite insane. Overall to me and this is mostly my gut - the faster this moves the more bearish i would get because I would view it as a potential echo blow off/unsustainable. nfa just my drivel how i think about this stuff. overall i would not be surprised at all if i dont get filled on any orders bc this just doesnt pull back but I would still think this will get a quite severe pullback later on then as usual a long way of me coping and saying that i wont chase

🧐🧐🧐 c0rn: good thing now with AI is you can run quite nice queries about all kinds of things. There have been some but overall not too many BTC 20%+ candles in it's history. Those candles almost always came as sort of a vibe shift. To me it only makes sense to look at things which happend in late stage bear markets and ignore the rest. Like something which happens 2 months after a major top is basically a dead cat bounce and can be very violent and happens as an entirely different part of the 'cycle' so can and should be ignored. Those 20% candles are basically always incredibly bullish no matter where they happen. The 2 instances closely resembling what we have this week are: April 2019 start of echo bubble Jan 2023 start of new bull cycle after FTX blowup As i said there are other instances which happend at different times during cycle and EVEN if we would be looking at those they also all had extremely bullish follow through over the coming weeks and months. Looking at 2019 we had the chance to load up again exactly 1 year later at around the breakout prices. However basically the entire move was covid related. Without covid the cheapest you got was 7k which is quite abit away from the 4k breakout level. Looking at 2023 we broke out from 17k to 25k and then had one chance to buy a severe pullback sub 20k a couple of weeks later. Afterwards you basically had no chance to get in. Obviously just 2/2 cases don't tell too much even though as being said if we look at more 20% candles at different times the picture doesn't change in any way and we are looking at 7/7 or so. The only thing that those look different is if we start including dead cat bounces shortly after giga tops which I think doesn't make much sense. Overall odds that sort of a bottom is in increased substancially so just waiting for new lows is likely abit ambitious. Question would be if we get something like 2019 which goes up alot and then also corrects alot (echo bubble sort of scenario) OR something like 2023 which never really looked back Needless to say things could also be "its different this time" and we see new lows because something breaks, stonks nuke 30%, nuclear war, w/e but I think this can't be our default. Long story short even though I have some exposure I definitely need/want more exposure going forward and therefore adjusting buy schedule abit. I have no rush here and if this sends to 100k in a months that train will mostly go without me but that's life. But if you have been bear like me the last 9 months I think you definitely have to adjust viewpoint here and probably adapt to a scenario where majorish bottom is in more often than not here

🧐🧐🧐 c0rn: good thing now with AI is you can run quite nice queries about all kinds of things. There have been some but overall not too many BTC 20%+ candles in it's history. Those candles almost always came as sort of a vibe shift. To me it only makes sense to look at things which happend in late stage bear markets and ignore the rest. Like something which happens 2 months after a major top is basically a dead cat bounce and can be very violent and happens as an entirely different part of the 'cycle' so can and should be ignored. Those 20% candles are basically always incredibly bullish no matter where they happen. The 2 instances closely resembling what we have this week are: April 2019 start of echo bubble Jan 2023 start of new bull cycle after FTX blowup As i said there are other instances which happend at different times during cycle and EVEN if we would be looking at those they also all had extremely bullish follow through over the coming weeks and months. Looking at 2019 we had the chance to load up again exactly 1 year later at around the breakout prices. However basically the entire move was covid related. Without covid the cheapest you got was 7k which is quite abit away from the 4k breakout level. Looking at 2023 we broke out from 17k to 25k and then had one chance to buy a severe pullback sub 20k a couple of weeks later. Afterwards you basically had no chance to get in. Obviously just 2/2 cases don't tell too much even though as being said if we look at more 20% candles at different times the picture doesn't change in any way and we are looking at 7/7 or so. The only thing that those look different is if we start including dead cat bounces shortly after giga tops which I think doesn't make much sense. Overall odds that sort of a bottom is in increased substancially so just waiting for new lows is likely abit ambitious. Question would be if we get something like 2019 which goes up alot and then also corrects alot (echo bubble sort of scenario) OR something like 2023 which never really looked back Needless to say things could also be "its different this time" and we see new lows because something breaks, stonks nuke 30%, nuclear war, w/e but I think this can't be our default. Long story short even though I have some exposure I definitely need/want more exposure going forward and therefore adjusting buy schedule abit. I have no rush here and if this sends to 100k in a months that train will mostly go without me but that's life. But if you have been bear like me the last 9 months I think you definitely have to adjust viewpoint here and probably adapt to a scenario where majorish bottom is in more often than not here