Spencer Li (Synapse Trading)

At the most recent meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that inflation is coming down and that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes. He also hinted that rate cuts could be on the table sooner than expected if the disinflation trend continues. This was seen as a dovish pivot compared to earlier concerns about keeping rates higher for longer. The market rallied strongly because falling rates mean lower borrowing costs, higher valuations for growth stocks, and relief for risk assets overall. Investors saw this as confirmation that the Fed is shifting from fighting inflation toward supporting growth again, which triggered a wave of buying across equities, crypto, and bonds.

Why is the market so bullish? The Jackson Hole meeting is an annual gathering hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City where central bankers, policymakers, and top economists discuss global monetary policy. Markets watch it closely because it often sets the tone for interest rate policy and the Fed’s longer-term outlook. Big shifts in past decades, like hints of tapering or policy pivots, have often been first signaled there.

Last call for my mentoring program next weekend (30 & 31 August)! I will be sharing proven low-risk strategies you can use to generate a 2nd source of income with just 15 minutes a day. Additional info: Program information: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program Trade Log & Results: https://synapsetrading.com/trade-log-results/ Testimonials & feedback: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/ Registration form & dates: https://forms.gle/eDxj7t52VXgYRXLn6 Make payment (SGD 3280): https://buy.stripe.com/4gw5nsfkk4vmd4k28Q

Last call for my mentoring program next weekend (30 & 31 August)! I will be sharing proven low-risk strategies you can use to generate a 2nd source of income with just 15 minutes a day. Additional info: Program information: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program Trade Log & Results: https://synapsetrading.com/trade-log-results/ Testimonials & feedback: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/ Registration form & dates: https://forms.gle/eDxj7t52VXgYRXLn6 Make payment (SGD 3280): https://buy.stripe.com/4gw5nsfkk4vmd4k28Q

📉 Technology Sector Weakness - Recent trades in tech (e.g., AMD, Netflix, RDDT, PLTR, etc) suffered false breakouts. - The index (NASDAQ 100) remains elevated due to mega-caps like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft, but breadth is deteriorating — fewer stocks above their 50-day moving average. 📊 Sector Rotation & Alternatives - Homebuilders: showing strong breakouts from basing patterns, with room to run. - Russell 2000 (IWM): small caps emerging from consolidation. - Biotech: breaking out of consolidation, promising setups. - Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Healthcare (XLV): showing constructive patterns. ₿ Crypto Market - Closed Ethereum position near the peak; cautious on Bitcoin (broken trendline). - Avoid rushing back into BTC/ETH; want confirmation before reloading. - Long-term: potential massive breakout pattern (like 2020 altcoins) if triggered by a Fed rate cut or easing yields. ⚖️ Overall Strategy - Short those over-extended counters, while buying those laggard industries - Re-focus on sectors with healthier breadth and structures (homebuilders, biotech, staples, utilities, healthcare, etc). - Keep crypto exposure limited until confirmation. - Maintain discipline: cut losses quickly, avoid chasing, wait for setups. - Outlook: volatile in short term, but big opportunities ahead if timed right.

Palantir (PLTR) - One of my fav stocks that I see great potential in for long-term holding, but I recently closed both long positions because I saw the crash coming. Made a decent 40%+ profit on this swing trade, and right after we closed the position prices crashed 25%. Sometimes regardless of the fundamentals, the timing is still the most important.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) - Managed to time the swing entries and exits very near the start and end of the whole move, capturing almost 30% profit in 12 days. Waiting to see if support can hold, and at least have 1-2 white bars close before going long again.

Reminder that this is happening soon, and we only hold it once every 3 months, so register early to avoid disappointment!

Trade Log Updates: - Closed PLTR for 33.47% profit 🔥🔥 - Closed TPR for 4.57% profit - Closed NET for 4.07% profit - Closed VST for -0.77% loss - Closed HOOD for -1.15% loss - Closed IBKR for -4.36% loss Net: +35.83% profit 🔥🔥 Trade log: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49641

Inflation & Macro Context - S&P 500 has rebounded to new all-time highs after a brief August correction. - Latest CPI: - Core inflation: 3.1% (slightly above expectations) - Headline inflation: Below expectations. - Tariffs may be starting to affect inflation, but shelter and energy prices are offsetting upward pressure. - Shelter inflation has fallen from ~5% YoY to ~3.68%, reducing CPI’s upward push. - Fed likely to continue lowering rates rather than raising them, given muted inflation impact from tariffs. - Market strength tied to confidence in tame inflation and stable conditions. Market Positioning & Historical Parallels - Current rally compared to late 1990s, especially 1998–2000: - Fed rate cuts, speculative tech sector strength, resilient price action. - Suggests potential for continued upside but with risk of sharp pullbacks if momentum overheats. Sector Focus: Technology & Semiconductors - Semiconductors leading market gains (SMH, NVDA, AMD, CRDO, etc). - Multiple breakout trades in progress with exposure increased in some positions, watching for continuation or false breakouts. - Closed those that have gone up a lot, rotating to laggards Crypto & Precious Metals - Bitcoin: Breaking out after a long pause, likely to make new highs. - Ethereum: Strong breakout and run up, likely to pause or pullback. - Gold: In an ascending triangle since April; potential for upside breakout if USD weakens further. - Silver: Breakout and strong price action, likely to make new highs. Key Takeaways - Markets are in a strong, possibly late-cycle rally phase with leadership from semiconductors and crypto. - Inflation data is tame, giving Fed room to ease policy. - Weak USD is a macro tailwind for multiple asset classes. - Tactical approach: ride current momentum but manage exposure carefully to avoid overextension risk.

Trade Log Updates: - Closed NVDA for 15.21% profit 🔥 - Closed CRDO for 34.84% profit 🔥🔥 - Closed DAVE (short) for -8.94% loss Trade log: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49641

The week’s key focus is the upcoming US CPI inflation report, which could show a slight uptick — possibly the first since early 2024 — mainly due to tariff-driven manufacturing cost increases. While this may cause short-term volatility in markets, we expect the inflation bump to be temporary, with underlying pressures (commodities, shelter costs, consumer demand) still trending lower. Market stance: - Our trading positions are moderately exposed, with positions in crypto, gold, and select equities, and not over-leveraged on stocks — limiting vulnerability to a CPI-related pullback. - If CPI surprises higher, yields may briefly spike and equities could dip, but this may be a buying opportunity as inflation likely resumes moderating. Crypto outlook: - Bullish stance on Bitcoin & Ethereum, driven by favorable macro conditions (weak dollar, institutional adoption, positive technical setups). - Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out of key patterns, with Ethereum showing relative strength. Gold: - Strong technical posture; potential to benefit from capital rotating out of bonds even if yields rise, due to changing macro narratives and reduced confidence in Treasuries. - The reaction to CPI will guide gold’s next move more than the data itself. Core takeaway: Short-term inflation volatility is possible, but underlying trends support stable-to-lower inflation, a steady bond market, and continued opportunities in select equities, crypto, and gold. Positioning is balanced to capture upside while managing downside risk.

Weekly Trade Log updates This week, we only closed 1 trade (JOBY), but we added quite a few trades. Our net returns is now at 815% from 114 trades, which is about 7.15% per trade. This means that if you put $10k per trade, your total profit will be $81,510. Check out full trade details: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49641

This is a lifetime mentoring program, which is suitable for anyone, ranging from complete newbies to seasoned traders. The 4 strategies I use work for all markets, but I would recommend swing trading (medium-term), which would give you 5-10 good trades a month, and take at most 15 minutes a day. Once you join us, you will immediately get to join my “Daily Trading Signals” where I posted my daily signals and analysis, and also where you get to meet & discuss trades with all my past students. At the same time, you will get access to all the training materials online, including notes, charts, and 10+ hours of training videos for you to get started immediately. Along the way, if you have any questions, I will guide you inside the groupchat. Lastly, every 3 months, we have a 2-day live classroom training, which covers the training materials, but is more focused on hands-on practical chart analysis and discussions. You can choose to attend any of these as many times as you want, as the chart examples will be different every time. Additional info: Program information: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program Trade Log & Results: https://synapsetrading.com/trade-log-results/ Testimonials & feedback: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/ Registration form & dates: https://forms.gle/eDxj7t52VXgYRXLn6 Make payment (SGD 3280): https://buy.stripe.com/4gw5nsfkk4vmd4k28Q

Registration is open for our "Trading Mastery Program" which is happening soon! Date: 30 & 31 August 2025 Our trade calls (tabulated on our website) have made more than 700% gains this year, do check it out!

📉 Market Overview: S&P 500 Correction - The S&P 500 recently pulled back to a key support level from Dec 2024 and is bouncing off it. - The correction followed a period of overextended positioning and high fund manager exposure (NAAIM at 99%). - We are using this pullback to selectively take new trades and increase exposure, seeing it as potentially short-term and healthy rather than the start of a bear market. 🧠 Macro Drivers of the Correction 1. Overextended positioning (fund managers heavily long US equities). 2. Weak US jobs data (Non-Farm Payrolls only +73,000) sparking recession fears. - Historical parallels: job contractions in 2001, 2008, and 2020 preceded big stock declines. - However, the current decline is mild and may not indicate a deep recession. ⚖️ Bull Case Against Recession - No major catalyst (e.g. oil spikes, pandemic) is present. - Financial conditions are favorable: - Dollar is weakening - Interest rates are trending down - Oil prices are low - Base case: Economic cooling without contraction. The market's drop is likely temporary. 🪙 Gold & Crypto - In a favorable macro environment: falling interest rates, weak dollar, rising deficits. - Gold retesting moving averages; likely a false breakdown. - Bitcoin retesting trendline; must hold ~$110k. - Ethereum gunning to break $4k. 📌 Final Takeaways - Current volatility is driven by short-term fears, not a structural breakdown. - Watching for confirmation of support holding on S&P 500. - Favoring selective stock exposure, gold, and crypto in this environment.

Weekly Trade Log updates (closed trades) Total net P&L: +41.14 profit for the week! 🔥🔥🔥 - AST Spacemobile (AST): 5.99% profit - Ethereum (ETH): 23.73% profit! 🔥 - Ebay (EBAY): -1.90% loss - USDSGD short: -0.14% loss - Silver (XAGUSD): net 4.98% profit over 3 positions - UBS (UBS): 1.80% profit - KLA Corp (KLAC): 8.81% profit 🔥 - Quantum ETF (QTUM): -2.92% loss - AeroVironment (AVAV): -3.47% loss - Citigroup (C): 2.03% profit - Trimble (TRMB): breakeven - Bitcoin (BTCUSD): net 2.22% profit over 3 positions Check out full trade details: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49641

[Monthly Market Wrap for July 2025] July 2025 was marked by strong gains in US equities, driven by stellar Big Tech earnings and optimism around AI-led growth. Ethereum and Bitcoin also surged, with ETH up over 50%, making crypto one of the top-performing asset classes. Despite trade tensions and political pressure on the Fed, markets remained resilient with a cautiously bullish tone. Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49711

💥 Earnings Week Overview - About 35% of the S&P 500 reports this week. - Biggest earnings week of the season — heavyweights will drive index moves. - Watch Wednesday in particular: loaded with tech giants + FOMC + GDP. 📅 Daily Breakdown – Key Earnings Reports Monday - Before Open: NGD - After Close: TLRY, WU, EXEL Tuesday - Before Open: UNH, SOFI, PYPL, BA, SPOT - After Close: MARA, V, EA, BKNG, SBUX, TDOC, NXT Wednesday (High Risk Day: FOMC + GDP + Tech) - Before Open: VRT, TEVA, CLVT, HUM - After Close: HOOD, MSFT, APLD, EOSE, ARM, AUR, META, CLFT, QCOM, CVNA, TMDX Thursday - Before Open: WRD, RBLX, ABBV, MA - After Close: LIDR, AAPL, AMZN, RKT, COIN, MSTR, ENVX, RDDT, NET, LUMN, FSLR, ROKU Friday - Before Open: XOM, CVX, MRNA 🧠 Strategic Commentary - Be cautious on Wednesday: stacked with high-volatility events (META, MSFT, QCOM, FOMC, GDP). - Risk management matters: Avoid large overnight risk, especially midweek. - Focus on big caps: Names like META, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, XOM will likely dominate sentiment. - Efficiency is key: Avoid overtrading – major earnings will drown out smaller names. - Market is extended: While macro news is bullish, upside may be limited short-term without new catalysts.