Trissy's Edge

Btc looks to be putting in its bear market range lows. I’ll admit I was overly bullish back at 80k, wasn’t expecting Saylor to come out and say he’s a willing seller and how much of a cascade that caused. Although I think this was for the better and good that the bandaid is ripped off now. Gets rid of the “what if” regarding his supply control and people have come to terms with his dividend payments not being a big deal. If we were to trade into the low 50’s I’d be calling family members and telling them to full port BTC, granted there isn’t damaging quantum headlines. I do think the quantum situation is becoming increasingly relevant, especially with the arrival of mytho’s/fable. I went down the quantum rabbit hole 5-6 years ago and it was obvious it had a long way to go back then. The theoretical foundations and mathematics were well understood but the bottleneck was engineering rather than theory. Building stable, fault tolerant qubits was very difficult, so the gap was between what quantum computers could theoretically do and what real hardware could actually execute. With the development in AI over the past few years, I'd imagine there’s been meaningful progress in quantum hardware and error correction, but I'm not up to date on how much that gap has closed. At this point the only narratives I can see driving us lower is quantum progress and/or the stock market collapsing. Considering zero rate cuts are expected and Trump’s made American superiority through asset prices mandatory, every -3% dip is eaten up within a couple days. Saylors ripped the bandaid off and we know STRC isn’t going to blow his ponzi up, since he’s a willing seller to cover loans for now. Maybe I’m a Japanese soldier, but I still see a future where good alts and onchain coins perform. As someone who was here 12 hours a day during the last bear market, vibes and interests feel near identical. You could argue that we actually have far more progress and optimism with the leading alts like Hype, Zec, VVV etc. The whole “onchain is solved” argument is actually more of a bull case for the genuine products that accrue users and revenue. Since there’s so much bullshit to shift through, the few that stand out will amass a premium to their valuations as friction for entry is so low and crypto allows for better culture and animal spirits (attention reflexivity). You saw this playing out with Moltbook when it was essentially a meme token and no formal confirmations from the dev. VVV is half the narrative/excitement that Moltbook was, but on the merit of genuine product and well crafted flywheel, it’s been able to find a niche in private inference while doing a 20x over 6 months. Last bear market was the same, majority was slop although we didn’t have vibe coding so volume of new projects was much lower. I managed to catch a 100x on Pendle and many other DeFi plays early due to the Biden administration pushing hard on CBDC’s and attempting to crush any form of equity/yield offering products. Despite sentiment and increased grift, there will still god spots. The problem is they need max conviction and willingness to sit on hands for several months in most cases, which in a bear market is like sitting on spikes. Copy trading in this environment is far more dangerous than the bull. In the bull you can get bailed out in bad spots due to attention and a rising tide, except that doesn’t work in the slightest for anymore than a handful of coins in the bear. Even those handful of coins like Zec washed anyone out who was leveraged 2x or more due to the double spend exploit from mytho’s. Now is the best time to be putting in the work and looking at what stocks are currently showing and trying to project what 6 months in the future will look like. This has been a proven method time and time again, you just need to stress test your thesis a hundred times with every possible fundamental, cultural and memetic variable.

Thoughts on SPCX It’s consensus that Elon is the grand master of manifesting “impossible” narratives into existence. Betting against him has ruined countless careers for fundamental traders. In all instances with having a deep crypto and memetic background, we all know how the overhyped KOL CEO protocol ends when they eventually run out of time and shill power. Except Elon’s one in a billion and previous frameworks don’t really apply to him, yet. Each miracle company he scales adds more confidence to his own abilities, therefore taking bigger risks. Since it’s difficult to apply fundamentals to such a speculative company, despite having some “qualifiable” physics backing his pitch, X, xAI and Starlink on the balance sheet, the best edge I can generate for this trade is understanding his psyche and how he’s positioned the asset to benefit from attention, based on float and NASDAQ dynamics. As Ansem said, crypto traders have been training our whole careers for these type of attention trades. While SPCX is 4% float with intergalactic space travel as the narrative, the structure of the asset holders, unlocks and NASDAQ dynamics feel slightly different: - 4.2% float - only 20% to retail -> this means 0.8% possible sell pressure (rest to long-only) - >50% won't sell given flipping policy / natural hodler -> 0.4% possible sell pressure Index funds are expected to buy 20bn / 1% -> 1% >> 0.4% -> 99.6% control while a DAT is coming in 2 weeks. Regarding lock up schedule, there’s a 30% performance hurdle (must close $175+ for 5 consecutive days for 10% to unlock), as well as August earnings date, which will unlock 20%. Additional 7% tranches unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post IPO. The greenshoe (over-allotment option allowing underwriters led by Morgan Stanley) can sell up to ~15% more shares in the first 30 days. This trade is more so invalidated by time, not price if you’re trading it leading into the DAT purchases. Due to the 10% unlock if price stays over $175 for 5 consecutive days, this will act as a major roof in the short term as traders won’t be willing to speculate on price staying above that level as it affects float so much. Nasdaq changed rules (effective May 1, 2026) for fast track Nasdaq 100 inclusion after just 15 trading days for large new listings (no 10% float minimum, with float multiplier). For a June 12 IPO, this lands around early July (~2–3 weeks). Russell indices also have fast entry. S&P 500 is slower (no fast track). Index funds tend to be permanent holders, meaning shares effectively disappear from circulation once purchased. With 4–5% float and potentially <1% truly liquid float, even a relatively small amount of forced buying can outstrip available supply. Nasdaq 100 will equal roughly 15-25 billion of buying. Russell will equal roughly 2-8 billion. Current tradable float is 80-100B, if we’re taking the 99.6% supply control number then 0.4% equals around 8 billion. With the DATs buying being so forecasted it’s difficult to see price remaining above 175 as 10% of additional shares will come onto the market. In saying that this entire launch has been designed to capture as much upside as possible, you’d think Elon must have something else up his sleeve, although that’s never a strong variable to put weight on for a trade. That’s how I currently see this trade. There is decent amount of asymmetry granted how little information has been provided regarding the roadmap of SpaceX and its encompassing companies. In terms of volatility I don’t see it being too significant until we get closer to those DAT purchases, if price remains above 175 and/or the greenshoe being activated. Unless Elon pulls a rabbit out of the hat, which I think if anyones going to he’s the person that will, there’s quite an overcast of short and mid term future unlocks that deters momentum traders from buying.

The actual counter trade: I think the clearest counter to “Mythos/Fable makes security vulnerabilities explode” is privacy infrastructure plus trusted execution. Confidential computing, zero data retention workflows and more specifically on prem/local inference. Microsoft restricting employee use for Fable because of Anthropic’s retention policy is a clear signal that privacy/compliance friction can materially affect model adoption. NVIDIA, alongside the confidential computing ecosystem are explicitly pitching encrypted in use AI workloads to unlock sensitive data without giving up control. So the higher conviction trade is long trusted execution. It’s a balancing act being dependant on private inference/local AI as costs are significantly higher and you aren’t getting the benefits of seeing what hallucinations form from using popular models. However, it’s difficult to see large companies not employing at least a hybrid approach where they have generalized tasks using public models and deeper internal information on their private inference stack. You can already see this playing out to some degree through memory and hardware as it’s not only AI firms hoarding supply but individual companies building their own data centres. Stocks like Dell, Supermicro, Nebius have been strong already but fit this thesis quite nicely. Been practicing what I preach and trying to harness my curiosity to become interested and more importantly optimistic on markets once again. Going down rabbit holes opens your mindset on how different industries react to events with second and third order implications. It’s been a nice brain exercise even if no trades result from it. I typically find when doing this procedure, steering away from crypto directly and looking for abstract ideas is the best option. Reason being is we can often feel like we’re pedalling in a circle if crypto is all we’re exposed to and crypto related thought experiments. Digesting new information and theses helps expand different pathways and outlooks for how the world works. Safe to say it’s given myself a new wave of enthusiasm to continue researching more niche ideas that can provide a profitable edge.

Exciting asymmetric trade ideas - Part 2 3. Attention Restoration (brain rot) - It’s obvious how much short form video and AI has brain rotted our general cognition to operate independently. If you take a look at ADHD diagnosis across children today they’re drastically growing and I’ve had personal friends working in childcare who’ve noticed a dramatic difference over the past 5-10 years. This kind of boils down to two different buckets. The near term trade is attention restoration inside regulated channels like ADHD diagnosis/treatment, stimulant supply, digital therapy, sleep medication. The speculative side is peptides, research chemicals, neuro upgrades etc. Trade expression: As ADHD increases it may be less about ADHD and more about the financialization of attention. As AI raises productivity expectations, employers and individuals increasingly treat focus, memory and execution function as assets rather than personal traits. Meaning the larger opportunity could come from measuring, scoring and optimizing cognition. Inversely, the winner might not be the therapeutic companies but the ones owning the data layer that quantifies and improves human cognitive performance. We’ve seen this with companies like Whoop or Oura rings, although maybe it goes a step further such as stress management, cardiovascular monitoring, anxiety treatment etc. Falling under some type of “biotech monitoring” service. Neuralink sits as more distant expression of this trade which doesn’t feel too badly priced at 50 billion granted you’re willing to sit on your hands for a few years or wait for a pullback on stocks. Counterpoints: Karolinska’s longitudinal study of 8,000 children found heavier social media use predicted worsening attention over time and shortform video links addictive use with poorer attention and procrastination, but that is not the same as proof of irreversible decline or proof that healthy users will adopt pharmacological enhancement at scale. The issue with biotech and cognitive enhancements is that it becomes increasingly expensive as you continue to optimize for performance and the ROI shrinks. Private investors take the best use of these advancements then up sell the more basic components. 4. Privacy Infrastructure - Since the release and announcements of Mythos/Fable, it’s not a matter of AI coding more. The Mythos preview could identify and exploit zero day vulnerabilities in very major operating system and every major web browser during testing and Anthrophics internal dashboard alledgly said that by May 22 it had disclosed 1,596 vulnerabilities across 281 open source projects with only 97 patched at that point. Trade expression: This has been the flavour of the past couple months in determining what the second and third order effects are of Mythos/Fable. We’ve seen a sell off in cyber security companies, Anthropic’s tool doesn’t replace realtime detection and mitigation. At the same time, the threat window is clearly compressing with each model upgrade that’s made. Vulnerability exploitation surpassed stolen credentials as an initial breach vector in 2026 data and CISA this week shortened the federal fix window for the most serious flaws to three days because AI is accelerating vulnerability discovery and exploitation. The obvious trade in this regard is for patch orchestration, exposure management platforms and also secure by design tooling like memory safe development.

Exciting asymmetric trade ideas - Part 1 1. World Action Models (WAM) - a new vertical in robotics which is a successor of VLA’s/VLM’s. Data collection through teleoperation is largely inefficient, humanized sensors are massively growing and companies adjacent to them. Nvidia defines them as models that predict future world states and actions. DreamZero see’s WAMs as a way to learn physical dynamics and generalize to unseen motions where standard VLAs can struggle. DreamDojo pushes the same direction, pretraining a robot world model on 44k hours of egocentric human video before small robot specific post training. Trade expression: The better longs are the humanized sensor and data layer like smart glasses, body and wrist capture, machine vision components, labeling/filtering infrastructure and world model/synthetic data tooling. We’ve seen the adoption of smart glasses already with Meta/Ray ban glasses constantly getting viral clips. Essentially you’re long capture/data infrastructure vs. robot OEMs. Counterpoints: Abundant human video is still not the same as robot supervision. Robot demonstrations are expensive and embodiment centred, since human videos typically lack aligned action labels and proprioceptive context. Meaning teleoperation probably gets compressed, not removed. WAM’s should reduce its relative important, but shorter term they still need alignment layers, embodiment bridges and robot specific post training. 2. EgoScale and Scaling Laws - EgoScale trained a VLA on 20k hours of action labeled egocentric human video, found a log linear scaling law between human data scale and validation loss, showed that validation loss strongly tracks downstream robot performance and reported a 54% average robot success improvement over no pretraining on a 22 DoF dexterous hand. This is the first serious evidence of predictable dexterity scaling.  Trade expression: Things like data acquisition, data refinement and representation enrichment. AoE proposes always on egocentric collection using smartphones plus cloud edge labelling, specifically to lower collection cost and expand scene coverage. ActiveMimic argues that a major missing signal in human video is active perception, camera motion that existing pipelines treat as noise and shows that modelling it can close majority of the gap to robot data pretraining. So the investable angle is not just “more hours” but cheaper capture + better auxiliary signals such as wrist views, head motion, gaze/camera motion and lightweight mid training for alignment. Nvidia is looking to combine WAMs and EgoScale scaling laws closely. Counterpoints: It’s still early days and it’s important to not over extrapolate a few scaling papers into a confident moat. I haven’t gone deep enough down the rabbit hole yet but EgoScale still uses a two stage recipe with human pretraining plus aligned human robot mid training. Activemimic’s whole contribution is that egocentric pretraining had been underperforming robot data pretraining because critical signals were missing. Meaning the “durable” moat may end up being data cleaning, synchronization and representation engineering, not ownership of raw hours alone.

Finding your spark One of, if not the most important trait as a trader is to remain optimistically curious. New systems, frameworks, data, narratives, arbitrage, fundamentals etc are all downstream from becoming curious on a new way of doing things. When coming back from extended time away or low read on the current environment, my only goal is to become infatuated with exciting ideas again. Without that excitement, research and monitoring charts feels like a choir. The fact your brain is in a low frequency state means you are missing small details which compound on building a unique thesis for a specific idea. E.g. a bottleneck in supply manufacturing has been unlocked/increase the current product capacity by >20% in efficiency, now creating 2nd and 3rd order effects for the industry as a whole. This could be the memory wall where the gap between how fast AI chips can compute and how slowly they can fetch data from memory. Breaking it would unlock longer context windows and multimodal AI (2nd order), then enable continuous learning and trillion parameter models that dynamically activate only relevant parts per query (3rd order). You can extrapolate this thinking to any sector and/or cross pollinate ideas from distant sectors where making these kind of connections aren’t as obvious = greater asymmetry. Example is Chris Camillo’s social arbitrage strategy. It’s crucial that when you become curious and infatuated with an idea, you aren’t over estimating your knowledge on the topic. You must become a truth seeking machine, where you don't settle until you feel you have a final answer that's bulletproof to opposing views, due to deep research. Conviction is often born from excitement, excitement is a strong emotion, strong emotions ruin risk management. Considering the fact that this new born curiosity is coming off the tail end of inactivity in markets, your foresight for risk and having a balanced take on positive and negative variables is inhibited. This is why I’ve spent so much time working on a system that prevents me from being spontaneous when initially coming back after low activity. Being a high conviction trader, I have a terrible habit of oversizing when I’m excited. I trade heavily on intuition and feel, again strong emotions, so my entire system needs to be centred on removing spontaneity. I know in the right environment and with the right amount of screen time I can be very profitable. Everything up until that point is removing landmines that I might step on. Find a system that lets you pay tuition to the market through small, progressive bets - without blowing up your portfolio before you've developed a profitable mindset.

Got stopped out. Shouldn’t have been greedy and taken the 3% move I caught in just a few hours since I bottom ticked it. Liquidation cascades always go deeper than you usually expect and I should have had better process and screen time to realize this. Overall been disappointed in my lack of discipline for trading and life in general these past several months. I’ve felt I became very unstructured in my day to day life which has trickled over dramatically in my professionalism towards trading and making money. It’s one thing to tell yourself to have a month break and go enjoy life/party/time away from the markets. It’s another thing when you tell yourself you’re going to lock in and then do these activities anyway. I’m perfectly happy to step away from markets when I feel I’m burnt out or have minimal interests in the way specific assets are trading. Although when you tell yourself you’re going to lock in and then aren’t putting in the necessary screen time, not only are you not moving towards your goals, but when the activities keeping you away from the markets are counter productive like partying, you’re not only sitting still but moving further away from your goals. This is one of the most psychologically crushing aspects for my mindset when I tell myself I’m going to do something and I don’t do it. It eats away at my core knowing I’m not being honest with myself and staying disciplined to my own word. Becoming a professional trader is about understanding your psyche to the deepest degree. Going against your discipline and word with yourself is putting cracks in the very foundation you stand on as a trader. You begin subconsciously poking holes in your framework and edge as you’re showing yourself that you aren’t serious, that you don’t really care about the quality of process and dedication to one of the most competitive industries in the world. It’s like a body builder eating pancakes and ice cream while preparing for Mr Olympia. This lack of discipline has been a double edged sword for myself as I have the exact formula needed to make a comeback and become in tune with the market again. For those who’ve been in this channel for a while you’ll know how extensively I’ve spoken about becoming aware of your energy levels and building process and risk management regarding my read on the market. My method has worked countless times and it’s tailored specifically to how my mind and body responds to my trading style. This has caused over confidence in the fact that I don’t need to work as hard as I’m very talented and can manifest my desires through hard work quite easily. Which is a bad trap to fall into due to the fact that the more times I successfully do it, the less stress I have, except that stress is what makes me outperform in the first place. The past several months has been a tug of war with my psyche in the sense that I have all the answers but the lack of will power to execute. I’ll have my foot on the gas for one month then the next month I become sloppy and stop putting the screen time, wondering why I’m not compounding results. Based on previous instances, I normally need around one month of warming up, second month where I’m feeling quite confident and the third month is where I crank screen time to the max, where majority of my gains usually come from before repeating the cycle again. Instead I’ve been slowly dying by death of a thousand paper cuts and letting ego take the wheel. My focus moving forward is to turn the ship around by falling in love with the process again and letting my previous guidelines and frameworks abstract any chance of my ego and emotions overruling my decisions. Sometimes obsession alone isn’t enough and you need to draw from toxic emotions like anger to truly spark the necessary change required.

Longed BTC @ 65.4k High lev short term scalp. Would be surprised if we break down further from here on first try.

Still in $RKC. Normally it’s unusual for myself to sit in a trade of this type for this long, although there’s too many interesting factors that have made me hold. 1. It’s been 9 days since the tokens launched and it’s still trading at a high value with consistent volume and mindshare. Distribution is also great. 2. RK still hasn’t changed his pfp back, I’m sure with his influence if he wanted to have customer support fix it he would have done so by now. 3. The CTO, Yokai and rest of the community have formed a cult like following and belief around this token. Truely feels like a GME style retardation that’s willing to relentlessly support. Something I haven’t seen in quite some time and feels like it’s brought in an external crowd from pure natives. I added to my position at 4 mil when I saw we weren’t breaking down after the pvp vamp from bags. Typically you’d see memes like this have a bigger bleed to the downside after large attention catalysts but the fact this held so strong with the distribution and volume made me add to my holdings. Along with the fact that BTC broke down and utility coins starting taking all the volume and attention over the last 4-7 days, while this has been one of the only memes holding value. Most traders who come across this coin ask “why” or “how” it’s trading like this given the environment. That asymmetry is what makes this trade interesting as so many have written it off and can’t consider the “what if”. What value do you attach to the first coin which was posted on the profile of the biggest retail trading celebrity of the past 6 years who still hasn’t changed his pfp back? What value do you give to the coin if he genuinely endorses or posts encrypted messaging for it like he’s done in the past? These are genuine thought experiments and not me trying to cause you fomo, I’m continuing to ask myself the same questions. At this stage this still isn’t a high conviction trade, yet. I just haven’t seen any opportunities which resemble the potential upside and reflexivity due to how ignored it is. I try not to take pascal wagers as I’m more of a high conviction low volume trader, but every time I think about selling this coin I struggle to bring myself to doing so due to it’s lottery style nature. Which makes me think of how many other traders have similar mindsets. Not recommending to tail me on this and if you do I’d size small due to low odds. Reason for this post is to explain how I’m seeing the current variables and looking for asymmetry onchain right now.

$RKC (7 mil) This is the only coin I currently hold on the list. Initially had a really good entry then sized too much at higher prices and ruined it, so I derisked a little but still have enough that if he interacts in anyway I’ll be happy. Was very close to doing a dedicated post but odds of interaction were too low to do so. Roaring Kitty’s account was “hacked” where he deleted the CA tweet, although he never changed his pfp back representing the coin. His brother was live on instagram and had a strange response when asked about the coin posted on his brothers account. I like coins which get a lot of hate/negative sentiment in the start then recurl upwards, catches so many offside and adds continuous fuel as people eventually come to terms with the thesis. Normally I dislike buying coins which are dependant on a response from a large public figure, but the way this has played out is odd asI don’t see how his account would be hacked with his opsec. The fact his pfp hasn’t been changed back adds a lot more speculation for this trade which I wasn’t as confident on before realizing. Not overly convicted and good chance he just never mentions it and slowly bleeds out. Although I grabbed a lottery ticket bag since there’s not many people who would move a coin more than RK if he interacts. He’s added billions in mcap to GME so on the very slight chance he does interact with this and address the coin/hack I think it could have a ton of pull. The current CTO is looking really strong and you can feel something special forming around this coin and the lore. Invalidation is a change of RK’s pfp or just lose of interest over the coming days. Only other project I’m in is the Bloomv4 Ponzi on base. Tldr is it’s a Sato + Upeg + Pandora combination and fixes some issues with exploits previously seen. There’s been good appetite so far for these style of plays. Still pretty early and the bonding curve is quite friendly for new mints and incentives holding. Been really enjoying the volume over the past few days and actively looking for new gems.

Interesting Onchain Plays #3 $POD ($17 mil) This is an AI inference and model network built by the team behind uncensored models used on Venice. The idea is turning idle GPU’s into a peer to peer pool inference network where nodes can freely join and leave without the rigid uptime requirements of traditional GPU rental systems. Venice uses Dolphin’s models for all uncensored chat requests on its platform. So when users select unrestricted outputs on Venice, those requests route through POD models rather than Venice’s default stack. Dolphins moat is the verification stack (proof of weights), which verifies nodes are actually running the correct AI models in memory rather than spoofing outputs. It positions itself as cheaper than centralized AI providers while routing all network revenue towards POD buybacks. Inference plays are interesting and was one of the angles I was most excited about in during AI szn, had a big bag of REX. However the tooling and agent rails weren’t developed enough to build a moat around at that time. Now I think that’s changed and we’ll see some really interesting projects emerge in the coming months. I’m not a buyer here although I’m using it as a proxy for appetite with utility/AI plays. Not overly priced here as float is only 11% though. Unfortunate I didn’t see it earlier on as I most likely would have sized. Will be on the look out for similar style plays. $GOBLIN ($11 mil) The lore stems from GPT 5.5 kept randomly inserting references to goblins, gremlins, trolls, ogres etc. Which Sama has leaned into and gave more insight into how their models kept hallucinating this language. Goblin’s biggest bull case is Sama finally found a way to align with normal people and is getting a taste for being accepted online for the first time in his life through memes -> he leans into it more. There’s lots of comparisons that Goblin to Sama is Asteroid to Elon. Out of the two I see Goblin being more asymmetric as frequency of interactions is much higher and Sam get positive reinforcement for the first time increases the likelihood he continues to try and gain popularity before IPO. Two best outcomes: it becomes the name/mascot for openai’s new model and/or becomes a viral term (especially among the ai crowd) online. I was very close to buying a good amount of this and holding, reason I didn’t is it felt too catalyst driven and at risk of opportunity cost. Maybe I will enter if right conditions take place but for now I’m more interested in catching new launches or higher conviction bags.

Overall bullish both majors and onchain for the first time in many months. Most of us have been confused by the weakness in BTC relative to other assets. There’s a few points which I see this boiling down to: ⁃ Unclear if STRC bids maintain and continue, ETF front runners being caught offside ⁃ Saylor announcing to sell BTC, his purchasing is becoming risk for long term investors ⁃ Timing not aligning with 4 year cycle bottom (Q3/Q4 this year) ⁃ Quantum fears ⁃ Stocks producing altcoin esque returns, hot ball of money hasn’t had reason to rotate back (will do separate write up) Crypto still hasn’t had its moment yet and is living in the shadows due to relative price of SPX, AI and semi’s. While we’ve still traded at a premium compared to SPX/Gold, if you’ve been around a couple cycles you know the price action and sentiment that comes when we have genuine outperformance. Price leads fundamentals or as Taiki calls it “green candle therapy” is my basis. We all know why BTC should go up, markets just haven’t reflected it properly yet. Up until the last couple days I’ve been trading perps on high leverage. I’ve been tempted to share calls here but since I’m using the entire leverage bar majority of the time, it doesn’t really feel responsible to share and encourage others to do the same considering how dangerous it is. Had many friends zero out doing this and all it takes is one bad day to start a spiral. Kept my trades and ideas to gc’s and friends lately. Thankfully I’ve been fine and reading trades well, although perps can drive even the strongest soldiers to borderline insanity. Since onchain is the best it’s looked in multiple months I’ll be transferring majority of my time back to the arena. Why am I bullish onchain? ⁃ New 8 fig runners in 24-48 hours ⁃ Old onchain tokens doing several x's and trading into high 8/low 9 figs ⁃ Basket of good alts looking extremely bottomed and curling up ⁃ Sentiment basically dead and majority washed out ⁃ Haven't had any positive catalyst/narratives for several months ⁃ Tech/ai/semi's/spx on highs, there's plenty of money in the system, crypto just hasn't given people a reason to bid it Normally we only get one or two of these points but the fact we have so many, especially a mix of different coins performing, means markets feel overall bottomed and looking for reasons to go up. Recent meme performers: $DOGE, $FARTCOIN, $ASTEROID, $TROLL, $AURA, $WOJAK, $NEET, $GOBLIN, $TRIPLET, $BUTTCOIN, $HANTA Recent utility performers: $VVV, $HYPE, $ZEC, $BIO, $POD, $OCT, $CAS, $PAYAI, $GITLAWB, $LOOP Nothing I’m highly convicted on yet and mostly scalping new tokens to improve execution and read. Memes obviously leading the charge like they always do off the bottom. Expecting utility to pick up once we’re 90k> BTC. Current positions: Lev long BTC @ 80.6k. Confident 79k was the bottom on LTF’s, if we lose that I think it would change dynamics considerably. No onchain positions for now. Really glad to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Tbh even I was doubting if onchain would get some form of marginal bid again, the last couple days have proved that under the right conditions this still stands as the best casino in the world. Won’t be taking it for granted and my screen time will be up and to the right for the foreseeable future.

Closed BTC long @ 75.3k Played the cards right and got the additional fill at 73.5k. Overall great trade and made up for the profits I round tripped over the weekend. Now that Strc’s bid is gone, BTC’s dynamics moving forward will look quite different and we should expect it to react to events differently. Reason for close is I don’t have a great read on where we trade over the coming days. Was expecting a slightly bigger move from Strc’s final raise day but maybe it plays out like last month and Saylor’s going to swap over multiple days for better execution? Going flat for now until I have a better read on where the next trend will form on LTF’s. Right now direction feels like a coin flip, never good to be in positions if that’s your basis. Seeing some recent news of physical escalation in the ME and foggy sentiment from ceasefire positioning. Even though I said people don’t care about the war and its having diminishing returns, the fact there seems to be large aircraft carriers and underground missile reserves heading towards conflict zones is rather concerning. Will continue looking for catalysts with early execution. Trying to be extra patient as I’m starting to feel a little burnout from excessive screen time the past couple weeks. Not having a trade on can be a good mental reset if you’ve been trading in high volume and gives you a fresher perspective on direction, the skill is to be patient and not fire on low confidence positions.

A monster final day from STRC. Got our price target of 76-77k already. Half my position hit tp but thought we would have gone a little higher with how much was raised. Something most traders seem to get wrong is Strc’s raise settlements are T+1 days. If Strc raises 500 mil then the capital doesn’t become available to buy BTC until the next trading day. It’s not buying on the same day. It also doesn’t need to be deployed all in the following day. Saylor typically does buy most the next day and doesn’t care about execution, although it did feel like he was bidding multiple days after the end of the last ex div as the price felt like it was being walked up by a large entity and didn’t feel very natural. While if you shorted the 76k area it would have been a nice scalp, it’s not something I’m interested in attempting over the next 24 hours. OI is very high to the short side, todays raise of 700 mil could easily cause a short squeeze at market open in around 14 hours. War also looks to be wrapping up and having diminishing returns on market impact each announcement. The people are simply bored of it at this point. Last month I tried to front run the ex div short like many traders are doing now and got blown out, I’ve learnt my lesson and not trying to get fancy without full confirmation of trend change/downside catalyst. Current position: Long BTC @ 72.8k (half size) If we come down to around 73.5k I’ll likely put the remaining position back on going into Wednesdays market open to play the 700 mil Strc twap and short squeeze which is looking rather likely. Counter argument is traders have become more educated on flows since last month and mapping out the same game theory wouldn’t be wise as each variable will be slightly front ran compared to last month. Regarding war, not much change since my last post and basically the same soft toning and variables still apply. SPX is demonstrating it doesn’t care about headlines anymore and assuming the situation as resolved based on PA. Invalidation for my ideas is ETF outflows outweighing Strcs bid alongside lev shorts. Important to play to what the market is showing you and don’t become rigid in your thesis. There’s going to be continued whipsawing on LTF’s over the next 24 hours so be confident if you’re going into positions.

Yesterday’s ideas have been invalidated. ⁃ Saylors Friday raise spiking BTC back to up 72k ⁃ Strc’s Monday raise is nuts and over half a bil, still have Tuesdays to go and likely just as big ⁃ Trump’s toning softening and trying to push the agenda of more ships going through SOH ⁃ Iran looking into abandoning uranium enrichment (nuclear) but this seems highly unlikely, probably false headlines ⁃ SPX ripping and U.S is putting on a front they’re selling domestic oil now Ended up roundtripping a good amount of my BTC short and Oil long and got stopped out while asleep. Expensive sleep and sucks as I had my invalidations but wasn’t able to act timely enough on them. That’s perps unfortunately and just have to keep shooting. Current position: Long BTC @ 72.8k I woke up and longed as soon as I could. This time last month we saw how impactful Strc’s final days of bidding were to 76k. I tried to front run the final day by shorting last month, except bidding 400-500 mil spot in a single day steam rolled me so I’m aware of how much momentum these final two days will have. Best not to get in the way and enjoy the free ride. Since there’s so much volume coming in from Strc you know the drawdowns will be fairly limited and you need to enter higher than you’d like as you’ll get left behind. Keep in mind I typically trade on 50x lev and requires a strong pulse on the 5 min charts. I wouldn’t recommend this if you’re only online for half of the day and not able to monitor news and flows constantly. This is more so for my mental clarity describing how I’m executing the position. With how hard price is going to swing on LTF’s you’re incredibly susceptible to titling which is more damaging than the profits/losses themselves. Timeline wise I’m looking to be long BTC going into Wednesday and how long I hold that position during Wednesday depends on the Strc raise. If it’s similar numbers to Monday then you don’t want to fight flows. Target wise if Tuesdays raise is similar numbers (500 mil ball park) then I’m looking for 76-77k on Wednesday granted conditions don’t change. Thursday will be a good inflection point as second round of negotiations will take place in Islamabad. Invalidations: ⁃ U.S blockade in the SOH being met with physical escalation (ceasefire agreement collapsing) ⁃ Thursdays talks delayed due to some type of physical attack or ships being blown up For now it seems like Trump has soft taco’d and will likely hold this stance until Thursdays meeting. Even if his sentiment changes I don’t think it affects BTC much. Strc’s bid is insane and will absorb any negative news other than the collapse of the ceasefire over the next two days imo.

Thoughts on the market Havent been writing as I’ve been intra day scalping on high leverage since the RR has been significantly better than onchain. As my views are very short time frame and opinions can change within a hourly time span, it makes it harder to give multi day outlooks. Nevertheless I think it’s beneficial to publicly share how I’m viewing the current dynamic and should only provide better feedback for my thought processes. Vance has returned back from a very negative conference where he spent 21 hours negotiating with the Iranian team. You had a 3 hour window where news channels were reporting the ending of the negotiations and hadn’t arrived at an agreement. The fact they spent 21 hours and didn’t have any immediate points to release gave myself signal to short with size at 73.5k. After confirmation of such a negative conference and essentially worst case scenario, I also longed WTI from $93 as it was very mis priced and think its sitting closer to fair value now around $100 at the time of writing. Variables that hold the most weighting for myself: ⁃ Saylors Friday strc raise to be absorb and showing a heavy decline in the final two days before snapshot ⁃ Renegotiations to be delayed or weak communications from Iran to acknowledge any of Trumps request ⁃ U.S blockade in the SOH being met with physical escalation (ceasefire agreement collapsing) Current positions: Short BTC @ 73.5k Long Oil @ 93 Trump’s wording the past 24 hours has been very strong in the fact they aren’t willing to compromise on 90% or 95% of their proposal. He’s made it clear they want 100% of their agreement which includes no nuclear capacity. I struggle to see how this ceasefire holds as the points of difference between the two are so diverged. Clearly both sides are stuck between a rock and hard place but there doesn’t seem like a real effort to resolve, especially since this has become a twitter war and forfeit shows dramatic weakness. Saylors MSTR purchases, if he had significant buying over the past week >300 mil, I think that’s quite negative for price as it shows he’s been the majority bid. Strc is also very important to see how much of the 250 mil is absorbed Monday and if the flywheel decreases significantly based on the increased conflict over the weekend. Last week was roughly 650 mil from Strc so if Mstr carries that total to >1 bil for the week it won’t show confidence from external participants. If Strc slows down then I think BTC can retrace back to 68k region. If it has high volume and struggles to hold Btc while equities continue to fall and Oil rising, then I think we’re back in the gulag post Wednesday. Reason to take the opposing side of my current trades are: Trump softening language regarding ceasefire/agreements, negotiations having clear timelines for discussion and not cryptic rhetoric, Iran forfeiting nuclear capabilities (very unlikely), SOH reopens as apart of short term negotiation deal, strength in BTC with lack of bid from Saylor. Missing quite a few points but overall I’m in the seat of continued warfare with diminishing chances of ceasefire agreement and prolonged war for the coming days. Will try to share high confidence short term trades when they appear.

Readjusting Framing “There is no bull or bear market, only the market”. “Price isn’t required to hold this level, it’s purely numbers on a chart”. We tend to put ourselves in a type of Stockholm syndrome where we let the market be this ultimate truth seeking machine that we treat in a religious way. Our lives are affected differently depending on how we perceive it. The best traders who operate with cold stone emotions and let it be a game of probability will always outweigh those who tilt on every trade in the long term. Operating in a sociopathic mindset is the best out course for this. E.g. you don’t care what happens in world events. You don’t pick sides on wars. You don’t have political preferences. Every circumstance is merely another variable which gives stronger bias to the long or short side. You don’t care what happens, only the probabilistic nature of the outcome. The biggest mistake I see with most is wanting to be correct about who’s in the wrong or right depending on politics/events/tech/arguments/legalities etc. So much so their conquest in being correct clouds their mind for the best way to express the trade or execution. Whoever profits is correct (granted it was done legitimately). Considering the markets we play in are so sentiment and influentially affected, playing calculated probability doesn’t always work as many good trades are based off intuition or a type of qualitative edge that’s difficult to teach. Not to discredit the legitimate quants as the good ones typically make more than us discretionaries (cc: MM’s, arbitragers, MEV etc) but they’re fewer and far between. Truth is, this is the reality of what separates good from great traders. Bias towards ideological beliefs will cause uneven weighting in your thesis, at the end of the day it’s nearly impossible to prove as you don’t know the inner workings of politicians or authoritarian actors. Humans are not rational beings who occasionally feel emotions. We are emotional beings who occasionally think rationally. The rationality is the exception. The feeling is the baseline. Every framework we build in finance, business and life is an attempt to impose order on a brain that is fundamentally running on fear and desire. Since we have the need to be seen as competent by other people who are also running on fear and desire. The best operators build systems to catch their irrational impulses.

The last thing you see after asking for a crumb of profit on Memescope Monday

The art of emotional management is not tilting when you feel “unlucky”. Poor execution can hinder your confidence and ability to trade even when your thesis and direction was right. Example: I was trying to short BTC from 72k the other week towards the end of Saylors STRC Twap as it was apparent he was driving majority of demand and momentum. Lack of his bid would have resulted in a short and sharp move. While this was true, my execution was slightly off and got stopped out due to high lev. While my process was correct and I was only a 2% move off, I still misjudged how much impact his market buys would have and how little traders were willing to stand in its way, taking the other side of the trade. This seemed like an obvious trade that was highly telegraph due to coinbase premium and metrics live on STRC’s website. Going into this trade I had hit multiple high percentage trades in a row while having significant screen time. My read on markets felt 10/10 and one of those moments where the price speaks to you on every move. At that time I was martingaling a small perps acc which I had run up from a low number to something reasonably impressive. As onchain was offering such little ROI for time spent, I found it more stimulating to focus on macro and BTC’s relative strength. Martingaling perps is obvious suicide but a fun experiment I do from time to time. Trading on high lev forces you to be super optimized on execution and understanding where there’s gaps in information based on price levels and relative strength across markets. As someone who’s more of an intuition/fundamentals/social trader, using downtimes to strengthen weaknesses (execution) is a good use of my time… granted I don’t tilt. Going back to the point about having a 10/10 read, I try to stay in this pocket for as long as possible. I don’t base my risk management on the quality of market I’m trading or some liquidity cycle. Everything is about how strong my read is on the current market no matter the conditions. Yes it’s important to be aware that you're trading in lower opportunity environments, thus your ceilings for profits will be significantly capped, although that shouldn’t matter granted you’re reading level to level accurately and sizing accordingly. When I eventually got liquidated, I didn’t bother to continue trading even though my read on the market, STRC and war was highly precise. My judgement for STRC’s buying momentum was off by 2%, leading me to feel “unlucky” and created a negative perceived outlook for my read on markets. I wouldn’t consider this the greatest example for the ideology I want to push as I was martingaling perps on high leverage, still the message is applicable to any trading style. If your read on the market and screen time is close to as good as it can be, don’t let a singular bad trade stop your momentum or flow state.

BTC strength > rest of markets. I’ve been very active this past week trading perps and accumulated a lot of screen time monitoring the situation. There’s the question of BTC’s strength being a flight to safety due to war scenarios but I don’t see this being much of an influencing factor. Two main points are: 1. BTC/GOLD and BTC/SPX ratios - front running macro events and becoming a undervalued asset comparatively 2. STRC buying TLDR: STRC must trade above $100, the yields get higher if it drops below $100 so it becomes more attractive to buy. Saylor can redeem STRC if it goes over $101 so there’s little incentive to buy. mNAV needs to remain above 1x (the value of MSTR to BTC ratio). Viktor (thedefivillain) has a great article you can read. Saylor has bought $1.5b in total this past week comparatively to only approx $760 mil from ETF’s. We’ve had 8 daily green candles in a row to give you some perspective for how impactful his buying and sentiment shift has been. Last time this happened was July 2021. Since the beginning of this month with the assassination of Iranians initial president, there’s been quite an obvious structure shift in BTC. War has typically marked the end of down turns for BTC as attacks have been to flood the media with confusion due to greater underlying economic/political issues. Crypto has always acted as one of, if not the most forward looking asset for markets in this regard. There’s the big question if 60k is pico bottom. As I’ve stated in previous post I’m a believer that crypto native black swan events (FTX style implosion) are extremely low as the odds that the few companies with enough size to cause it would have failed by now. Tradfi is the elephant in the room which becomes much harder to predict. We all know the SPX looks like it’s been wanting to roll over for months but is held up by AI capex and dovish macro. Does BTC hold in a further move down from stocks? I find it hard believing it does, although one unique take I can present is the correlation with DXY. In the past this has usually been the opposite case, however I can see a scenario where U.S eventually gets control of Iran. One of BTC’s core focal points has been its Americanization and proxy to strength/weakness. Dollar strength can come from global dominance even in high inflation environments. In the advent that conflicts concludes, dollar strength could rise alongside BTC being a proxy asset of that. Some food for thought. On shorter timeframes it’s difficult to judge where we are. I do think if the STRC demand dissipates, BTC will struggle to sustain momentum. While it’s in a value zone, the uncertainty of stocks keeps a roof over this range. Positive scenarios to look for: large IPO’s coming onto market and sustaining value, oil price caps, trade deal to be made with U.S & China end of month (resolution of Iran), change in political behaviour for favourable midterms (typically rally after in Q4), Clarity & Genius Act. Alts have been playing catch up for the first time since we’ve entered this range, good sign that higher risk traders value BTC’s strength.