Satoshi Tweeted

🟠 Bitcoin failed to hold $65K as ETFs started bleeding again US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted 4 straight trading sessions of outflows. Investors pulled around $526M during that stretch, while BTC failed to hold above $65K and briefly dropped toward $63.1K. After a seven-day inflow streak worth nearly $1B, the market quickly moved back into caution mode. 📊 What it means:

— the latest session saw around $49.8M in ETF outflows; — the biggest outflows came on July 23 and July 24: $225M and $240M; — total net inflows since launch still sit around $51.3B; — but recent flows show institutional demand is unstable again.

⚠️ Context:

— BTC is trading near $64.3K and is still up about 2.7% over the week; — but the dip to $63.1K marked its lowest level since July 17; — spot volume on major exchanges has collapsed: Binance saw around $35B in July versus $246B in November 2024; — CryptoQuant says Bitcoin needs renewed demand and better market conditions to return to a bullish trend.

Bottom line: one good inflow streak is not enough if outflows return right after. BTC needs to reclaim $65K and show real spot demand. Otherwise, the market stays stuck in the same pattern: bounce, sell, repeat. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin is back near $66K as markets breathe after Iran pause BTC jumped close to $66K at the US open. The reason is simple: markets got relief after a pause in US-Iran strikes, stocks opened green, and risk assets started waking up again. There were also reports that Iran and Oman are trying to create mechanisms for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. For oil markets, that matters: less supply fear usually means more appetite for risk. 📊 What it means:

— BTC is approaching fresh local highs. — S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened around 0.3% higher. — WTI fell toward $82 per barrel before a small rebound. — Shorts got hit again as the market rose, with liquidations nearing $250M in 24 hours.

⚠️ Context:

— BTC held the 21-day and 50-day moving averages as support. — Those levels sit around $64.3K and $63.3K. — Analysts see this as a good signal, but not a confirmed breakout yet. — To keep momentum alive, Bitcoin needs a clean push into the $66–67K zone.

Bottom line: Bitcoin looks stronger than it did a few weeks ago, but the setup is still fragile. If BTC holds above $66K and pushes toward $67K, bulls get a real chance to extend the move. If it rejects again, this remains just a relief bounce on better headlines. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Old Bitcoin wallets are moving less again Galaxy spotted an important signal: dormant BTC activity in Q2 fell to its lowest level since Q3 2022. In simple terms, coins that had been sitting still for a long time are moving less often. That matters because when old wallets start moving BTC aggressively, it usually means long-term holders are taking profit. 📊 What it means:

— long-term holders are selling less after heavy distribution in 2024–2025; — coin days destroyed also declined, meaning older coins are less active; — Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says previous spikes looked like “OGs taking profit”; — a similar pattern appeared in 2017, when early holders sold into a strong bull market.

⚠️ Context:

— lower dormant coin activity does not guarantee an immediate rally; — but it may show that heavy seller pressure is starting to fade; — if long-term holders return to holding, it becomes easier for the market to build a bottom or continue recovery.

Bottom line: old BTC is not rushing back to the market like before. That is a good sign: patient holders may have already finished most of their profit-taking, which means overhead pressure is getting lighter. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Grayscale says Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than usual Grayscale says BTC may have already found its bottom, even though the traditional 4-year cycle pointed closer to September or October. The idea is simple: Bitcoin has grown up as an asset, and macro now matters more than old halving-cycle timing. The key driver is the Fed. If rate hikes stop and the economy holds up, Bitcoin may already have a base for recovery. 📊 What it means:

— Grayscale says BTC may have already bottomed. — K33 also sees a signal: more than 50% of Bitcoin supply was held at a loss, which has often appeared near past bottoms. — Swan Bitcoin points to record long-term holder supply: 14.7M BTC. — The fewer coins weak hands control, the easier it becomes for the market to build a reversal.

⚠️ Context:

— the next Fed rate decision is on July 29; — markets price around a 66% chance that rates stay unchanged; — if the CLARITY Act fails, Strategy and other treasury companies may keep reducing risk; — some analysts still expect a later bottom around October–December 2026.

Bottom line: Bitcoin no longer moves only by the old “halving — rally — bear market — bottom” cycle. The real question is when macro turns friendly for risk again. If the Fed stops adding pressure, BTC may have already left the bottom behind. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Binance saw 9K BTC leave in one day — are buyers waking up again? Bitcoin is holding around $65–66K, and the market just got an interesting signal: more than 9,000 BTC left Binance in a single day. That is the largest daily net outflow from the exchange since November 2024. When coins leave an exchange, it usually reduces sell pressure. In simple terms: BTC is not being sent to the order book for a quick dump. 📊 What it means:

— Binance is showing a strong net BTC outflow again. — This kind of volume often points to coins moving into self-custody or longer-term positioning. — CryptoQuant analysts say the market is absorbing selling better around $65K. — ETFs are helping the backdrop too, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing net positive inflows again.

⚠️ Context:

— one large exchange outflow does not confirm a new uptrend; — Binance netflows have been choppy for the past couple of weeks; — a real reversal still needs spot demand, volume and a more stable price structure; — BTC is holding near $65–66K, but it has not fully proven a new trend yet.

Bottom line: 9K BTC leaving Binance is not a “rocket tomorrow” signal, but it matters. Sellers are being absorbed better, and if volume plus ETF inflows follow, Bitcoin gets a real chance to keep pushing higher. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin breaks $66K: the market is looking at $70K again BTC finally pushed through the $65K area and reached $66.3K — its highest level in a month. After several rejections at resistance, bulls managed to break through, while shorts started closing and pushed price even higher. 📊 What it means:

— Bitcoin reclaimed the lower part of the old range and is now looking at $67.5–68K. — If BTC takes that zone too, a move toward $70K can happen fast. — Around $200M in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours. — Some traders expect another 5–6% upside if momentum holds.

⚠️ Context:

— some analysts warn the move may be driven partly by short covering, not only real demand; — options now show demand for higher BTC bets into the end of July; — the market is waiting for the Fed meeting on July 28–29; — if tensions around Hormuz ease, risk appetite could improve and speed up the move.

Bottom line: BTC finally looks alive again, but $67.5–68K is the next real test. Break it — and $70K comes back into play. Reject there — and this move may turn out to be another short squeeze into resistance. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin is holding stronger than tech — $70K is back on the table BTC failed to cleanly break $65.5K, but the bigger point is different: while AI stocks and Nasdaq were selling off, Bitcoin held up much better and moved back above $65K. That matters. When traders dump overheated tech names and BTC does not follow the same path, the decoupling story comes back. 📊 What it means:

— BTC funding is around 8% annualized, so leverage is not overheated; — options still show caution, with big players paying extra for downside protection; — Strategy raised $263M in cash through stock sales, reducing fear of more BTC selling; — the company now has around $3.22B in reserves to handle dividends and debt pressure.

⚠️ Context:

— Nasdaq-100 fell to five-week lows; — AI names like IBM, Oracle, ARM, Intel and others came under pressure; — the US 5-year Treasury yield rose to 4.33%; — geopolitics is also heavy, with Trump promising retaliation against Iran after a strike on US troops in Jordan.

Bottom line: bulls are not fully in control yet, but BTC looks stronger than many risk assets. If tech keeps weakening and Bitcoin holds above $65K, a move toward $70K becomes a real scenario again. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Saylor rejects BIP-110: “fixing Bitcoin with censorship is a bad idea” Michael Saylor published a long post with “110 reasons” why BIP-110 is the wrong path for Bitcoin. The proposal aims to temporarily limit non-monetary transactions on the network: Ordinals, NFT-like inscriptions and other arbitrary data. The debate is simple: supporters want to protect nodes, reduce unwanted costs and keep Bitcoin focused on money. Saylor says those goals are valid. But the remedy is dangerous. 📊 What it means:

— BIP-110 proposes a temporary fork and limits on certain transactions. — Supporters see Ordinals-driven bloat as a threat to the network. — Saylor argues for neutral rules, open fee markets and permissionless innovation. — His main point: you cannot protect Bitcoin by making it less permissionless.

⚠️ Context:

— This is one of Bitcoin’s biggest protocol debates since the Blocksize Wars. — Activation would need 55% support from validating nodes, but the last period showed only about 1%. — Ordinals activity is now far below its peak: under 10K inscriptions per day versus 400K+ at the 2023 high. — Adam Back has also criticized BIP-110, calling it an attempt to police other people’s activity.

Bottom line: this is no longer just a fight about Ordinals. It is a fight about what Bitcoin should be: a cleaner monetary network with filters, or an open protocol where the fee market decides what belongs onchain. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin buyers near $107K may be flashing an early bottom signal Glassnode is watching the group of investors who bought BTC in the last 1–2 years — roughly between $62.8K and $107K. Many of them are now underwater, and their behavior may help show where the market starts forming a bottom. 📊 What it means:

— when these buyers sit in losses for too long, they start realizing losses; — in past bear markets, durable bottoms often appeared only after this group ran out of selling pressure; — realized losses from 1–2 year holders recently climbed above $75M on a 30-day average; — if this metric starts rolling over, it could be an early sign that the heaviest selling phase is fading.

⚠️ Context:

— Glassnode says this structure is worth watching closely; — other on-chain signals are also showing early reversal conditions; — the next key BTC battleground is around $69K; — that level matches short-term holders’ cost basis and the old 2021 all-time high area.

Bottom line: $69K is now the real test. If BTC reclaims it with strength, the recovery gets room to run. If price rejects there, the range stays alive and the bottom debate continues. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin jumped above $64K on weak inflation — but traders still don’t fully trust it BTC quickly returned to $64K after fresh US inflation data came in cooler than expected. CPI printed at 3.5% versus the expected 3.8%, marking the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. The market finally got some relief: stocks moved higher, crypto bounced, and shorts started closing. 📊 What it means:

— weak CPI reduces fear that the Fed will keep pressing markets harder; — energy was the main driver of the inflation drop, despite Iran and Hormuz tensions; — more than $220M in crypto shorts were liquidated in 24 hours; — BTC is back near the top of its local range.

⚠️ Context:

— traders are still cautious: $64K–64.8K remains resistance; — part of this move looks like a short squeeze, not pure fresh demand; — if BTC cannot reclaim and hold the weekly open, this may just be another lower high; — in that case, the market can move back toward $60K.

Bottom line: weak inflation gave Bitcoin a clean push, but bulls have not won yet. The real signal is not a quick spike above $64K — it is holding that level. If BTC rejects again, this bounce will quickly look like a trap for late buyers. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin jumped above $64K on weak inflation — but traders still don’t fully trust it BTC quickly returned to $64K after fresh US inflation data came in cooler than expected. CPI printed at 3.5% versus the expected 3.8%, marking the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. The market finally got some relief: stocks moved higher, crypto bounced, and shorts started closing. 📊 What it means:

— weak CPI reduces fear that the Fed will keep pressing markets harder; — energy was the main driver of the inflation drop, despite Iran and Hormuz tensions; — more than $220M in crypto shorts were liquidated in 24 hours; — BTC is back near the top of its local range.

⚠️ Context:

— traders are still cautious: $64K–64.8K remains resistance; — part of this move looks like a short squeeze, not pure fresh demand; — if BTC cannot reclaim and hold the weekly open, this may just be another lower high; — in that case, the market can move back toward $60K.

Bottom line: weak inflation gave Bitcoin a clean push, but bulls have not won yet. The real signal is not a quick spike above $64K — it is holding that level. If BTC rejects again, this bounce will quickly look like a trap for late buyers. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin is being pushed back to $62K as oil and Hormuz hit risk appetite BTC moved lower as US-Iran tensions escalated again. The market reacted to Trump saying the US could “run” the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s key oil routes. With WTI holding near $75, stocks opening lower and sellers pressing hard, Bitcoin is back under pressure. 📊 What it means:

— BTC is moving toward the $62K zone, which bulls need to defend. — Traders spotted aggressive shorting before the New York open. — If buyers do not step in, $60K can quickly return to the table. — Pressure is not only coming from derivatives: spot selling is also active, which makes the setup weaker.

⚠️ Context:

— Nasdaq opened down around 1%. — Higher oil prices bring back inflation and rate fears. — Traders are calling BTC price action “very weak.” — Still, some analysts keep $70–75K rebound targets alive if key levels hold.

Bottom line: right now, Bitcoin is not trading like a safe haven. It is trading like a risk asset hit by geopolitics. If $62K holds and real spot demand appears, shorts can get trapped on a bounce. If not, $60K becomes the fear level again. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin ETFs finally see inflows — but it’s too early to celebrate US spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the week with $197.4M in net inflows, breaking an 8-week outflow streak. BlackRock’s IBIT did most of the work with $291.9M in inflows, while Grayscale, Fidelity and ARK still saw money leave. Sounds like a recovery? For now, it looks more like the first breath after weeks of pressure. 📊 What it means:

— The 8-week outflow streak is finally over. — But $197.4M is small compared with the $8.26B pulled from ETFs since May 11. — Analysts are not ready to say institutional demand is back. — One possible positive: expectations around the US CLARITY Act, which could give the market more regulatory certainty.

⚠️ Context:

— 10x Research says ETF and stablecoin outflows still remain headwinds. — August and September can be difficult months for BTC seasonally. — Some analysts think Bitcoin is already in the second half of the bear market. — Others still expect a possible bottom closer to October.

ETH had a similar move: spot Ether ETFs also broke an 8-week outflow streak with $84.42M in weekly inflows. But the bigger picture is still weak, with around $1.2B pulled since May 11. Bottom line: ETF inflows are a good signal, but not a victory. For the market to believe institutions are really back, Bitcoin needs more than one green week. Right now, this is an early hint — not a confirmed reversal. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin is back at $64K: now everything comes down to $65K BTC climbed above $64K and came close to fresh three-week highs. The market woke up as hopes returned that the US-Iran peace deal could still be saved, while oil started cooling after rejecting the $76 zone. The key level is simple now — $65K. If Bitcoin breaks it, the bounce stops looking like just another thin-market move. 📊 What it means:

— BTC reached $64.35K and came close to a new local high. — WTI stayed lower after rejecting from the $76 area. — DXY has dropped for three straight days and is near its lowest levels since mid-June. — Analysts now call $65K the crucial resistance for more upside.

⚠️ Context:

— QCP warns that risks are still here: US oil reserves are at their lowest level since 1983. — After tanker strikes and weaker Hormuz flows, energy markets remain fragile. — Strategy’s recent BTC sales also showed that instability has reached crypto. — But inflation expectations are cooling: the odds of inflation rising above 4.5% in 2026 fell below 20%.

Bottom line: Bitcoin finally looks stronger, but $65K is the real test. A breakout could bring momentum back to BTC and altcoins. A rejection would turn this whole move into just another bounce without follow-through. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin is back at $60K: pressure is coming from three sides BTC dropped 3.5% and moved back toward the key $60K zone. This is not just one weak candle: the market is being hit by war risk, rising oil prices and fresh Bitcoin selling from Strategy. Bitcoin failed to reclaim $64.5K on Monday. Nasdaq has already recovered part of its losses, but BTC still could not bounce properly from $62K. That means the pressure is not only about general risk-off sentiment. 📊 What it means:

— Brent oil jumped from $68 to $74 as US-Iran tensions escalated; — higher oil prices bring back inflation risk; — traders now price a 69% chance of a Fed rate hike by September, up from 42% a month ago; — in this setup, Bitcoin is still not treated as a real safe-haven asset.

⚠️ Context:

— Strategy sold $216M worth of BTC, and traders got nervous because the sale happened outside its main $1.25B program; — the company has big obligations: $1.76B in annual dividends and more than $3.8B in convertible debt; — Japanese government bond yields hit a 30-year high, adding more stress to global markets; — India is again signaling tighter crypto oversight, including restrictions for banks.

Bottom line: bears are in control right now. As long as oil rises, the Fed looks tougher and Strategy may keep selling BTC, the $60K zone remains under pressure. If it breaks, the market will quickly start looking for the next support level. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin bounced after Strategy’s BTC sale — are bulls still alive? BTC dropped to $61.3K after news of Strategy selling Bitcoin, but quickly recovered to $63.5K. The market panicked first, then cooled down: the company now has an extra $216M in cash, which reduces concerns around dividends and debt. 📊 What it means:

— Bitcoin futures funding jumped to 9% annualized, showing traders are leaning cautiously bullish again; — ETFs saw $223M in inflows on Friday after 10 straight days of outflows; — long-term holders are sending less BTC to exchanges: 4,130 BTC per day versus 8,040 BTC a week earlier; — this strengthens the $60K support zone because selling pressure is cooling.

⚠️ Context:

— June was still ugly: spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a record $4.51B; — options are not fully bullish yet, as demand for downside protection remains; — Strategy is sitting on around $8B in unrealized BTC losses; — without a real streak of ETF inflows, the market may not trust a clean move above $65K.

Bottom line: the quick rebound shows bulls are not dead. But they are not in control yet. For a real recovery, BTC needs to hold $60K, bring ETF demand back and break $65K without another heavy sell-off. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin near $64K: is the bottom in or is the market just taking a break? BTC is trading near $64K, almost 50% below its October peak above $126K. The drawdown is smaller than in old bear markets, but this cycle is different too: ETFs, institutions, macro and AI are now pulling more attention away from crypto. 📊 What it means:

— some analysts think the bottom may have already formed last month; — Standard Chartered is betting on ETF demand and corporate BTC treasuries; — more cautious analysts still see risk toward $56–52K; — Galaxy and Hilbert even allow a $40–46K zone if macro conditions worsen again.

⚠️ Context:

— the market looks like a late-stage bear phase, but the final bottom is not confirmed yet; — sentiment has dropped to levels similar to the post-FTX period; — old cycle indicators are less clean now because more trading happens through ETFs, derivatives and OTC desks; — Bitcoin is no longer competing only inside crypto, it is fighting AI, equities and other global capital stories.

Bottom line: the question is no longer only where the bottom sits — $52K or $45K. The real question is when Bitcoin becomes the most attractive place for global risk capital again. Until money rotates back from AI and equities, BTC may not get a clean V-shaped bottom. It may spend time building a base. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin nears $63.5K, but Monday could ruin the party BTC climbed to $63.45K over the weekend — its highest level in almost two weeks. The market is now watching the $62.7K area, where the 200-week moving average sits. Basically, Bitcoin is deciding whether this level becomes support again or turns into another failed bounce. 📊 What it means:

— the move looked like a short squeeze: shorts got pushed out, and price moved higher; — around $167M in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours; — the key level now is $62.6–62.7K; — if BTC holds above it, bulls get a real chance to extend the bounce.

⚠️ Context:

— trader Killa warned that the last 7 Mondays have been “absolutely terrible” for BTC; — the move happened in thinner weekend liquidity due to the US holiday break; — ETFs finally broke a 6-day outflow streak with $224M in inflows; — before that, funds saw around $2.4B in redemptions, so trust still needs to come back.

Bottom line: Bitcoin is finally showing some life, but this is not victory yet. Hold $62.7K — and the bounce starts to look real. Lose it on another ugly Monday — and this move may turn into just a short squeeze before fresh pressure. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin aims for $65K on Fed remarks as Sharplink snaps up $16M in ETH The cryptocurrency market is desperately attempting to print a local bottom following a brutal monthly close. Bitcoin bounced off a 21-month low triggered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s sticky inflation narrative. Analysts remain deeply divided on the next macro move: some label the current bounce a classic bull trap, while others point out institutional accumulation as Sharplink breaks its eight-month silence to aggressively backstop Ether. 📌 What’s Happening

— Bitcoin is hovering around $61,490 after wicking to a fresh multi-month low of $57,737. Major altcoins mirrored the relief bounce, with Ether (ETH) scaling up 3% and Solana (SOL) gaining 4.85%. — Sentiment at Rock Bottom: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index collapsed into deep "Extreme Fear" territory, printing a reading of 11 out of 100. Despite the midweek bounce, BTC remains down roughly one-third since the start of 2026. — The Macro Setup: Relief followed comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh regarding stubborn inflation structures. While the 5-year US Treasury yield spiked to 4.22%—luring capital into fixed-income risk-free assets and punishing non-yielding crypto—investors are simultaneously hedging against long-term monetary expansion.

⚠️ Technical Layout: PlanB’s $52K Warning & Deleveraged Books

— The Realized Price Target: Famed Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB highlighted that June was Bitcoin's worst month since June 2022, sliding 20.5% to close at $58,526. Crucially, the price closed below its 200-week moving average ($62,000) but above its realized price ($52,000). PlanB warns that every single cyclical bear market floor in history printed below the realized price line, making a final capitulation toward $52,000 highly probable. — Thinner Order Books: Institutional data provider Talos reports that the market entered Q3 2026 significantly healthier after wiping out $8.35 billion in speculative long open interest during Q2. However, due to massive $4.5B June ETF outflows and a buying slowdown from Strategy, order-book depth remains dangerously thin. While systemic forced selling chains are unlikely, thin books mean large market orders will cause high intra-day volatility.

📌 The Return of the Whales: Sharplink Loads Up

— Providing a much-needed bullish divergence, crypto treasury giant Sharplink officially resumed its active Ether accumulation after an eight-month pause. On-chain data from Arkham reveals the firm scooped up 10,000 ETH since June 25 for a total of $16 million at an average price of $1,611 per ETH, bringing their total long-term reserves to 866,725 ETH.

📌 Conclusion A short-term relief rally toward $65,000 cannot be ruled out, especially given the thoroughly flushed leverage metrics and localized corporate dip-buying from players like Sharplink. However, structural headwinds remain heavily restrictive. The historic $4.5 billion institutional exodus from ETFs in June creates a massive overhead supply wall. Until the market officially tests the macro realized price floor near $52,000 or receives a genuine liquidity injection from global central banks, this bounce should be treated with extreme caution. Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin just had its worst June since 2022 — the bottom may still be lower BTC closed June at $58.5K, down around 20.5% for the month. That was its worst June since 2022. The key detail: price closed below the 200-week moving average near $62K, but still above the realized price near $52K. For some analysts, that is a warning sign. In previous bear markets, the real bottom usually formed below realized price. 📊 What it means:

— PlanB thinks BTC could still drop toward $52K. — That would be roughly a 60% fall from the October high of $126K. — Past bear markets went even deeper: 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. — So Bitcoin may already be cheap, but that does not mean downside is over.

⚠️ Context:

— Bitrue says the cycle bottom may still be ahead. — Bitget Wallet sees the $55K area as a possible strong support zone. — Benjamin Cowen notes that past midterm years often saw market bottoms in the second half of the year. — But there is no confirmed reversal yet: BTC needs to reclaim key levels and show real demand.

Bottom line: the market already looks exhausted, but “cheap” does not always mean “bottom.” If BTC loses the current zone, $55K and $52K quickly become the levels where the market will look for a real turnaround. Satoshi Tweeted🔑