World Affairs Blog

🇮🇷🇷🇺 - Russia, Iran signs MoU on Russian gas exports to Iran. According to latest reports that date back to before the deal was signed, it may be worth 40 billion US.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 - Kyiv Post says Ukraine has a severe air defense shortage, causing major damage to critical infrastructure due to Russian strikes, thus endangering the country's industrial output.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 - ISW says Kadyrov wants to crackdown on terrorism because he is "afraid Putin could turn on him if terror attacks get too intense".

🇰🇷🇺🇦🇰🇵 - South Korea's TV Chosun assessment on the DPRK thing: they expect Russia to pay North Korea $115 million a year to dispatche 3 or 4 out of its 10 engineering brigades to participates in "reconstruction work" in Donetsk oblast. This would free up Russian manpower for frontline operations among other things.

🇦🇿 - My opinion (in French) on Karabakh having a negative freedom score on Freedom House: Le seul moment où la liberté est vraiment disparue, c'est quand les hommes sont partis et qu'il ne reste plus qu'un champs de ruine sur lequel règne l'ombre d'un empire éclipsé par un nouveau qui n'attend que de pouvoir amener sa propre civilisation pour recommencer le cycle.

🇧🇴 - First of all, the coup's failure is likely to increase Luis Arce's popularity in the country ahead of 2025's election cycle. The key decision to watch now is whether the president will decide to do a purge. President Arce has not invoked state of emergency, martial law or any other legal disposition of this magnitude, which may be an indicator he is not seeking a legal carte blanche to get rid of problematic army officers or commanders. Furthermore, the coup leader's apparent isolation and Washington's likely opposition to any large-scale purge complicates any decision in this sense by president Arce. Thus, it is my assessment that no major "purge" will happen as a result of today's event in La Paz.

🇧🇴 - Bolivian coup leader arrested, claims he got framed by Bolivian president Arce who "wanted to increase his popularity".

🇫🇷 - IPSOS France chief clearly telling a liberal getting excited about "the 3 possible scenarios after the election: moderate govt, technical govt and a current affairs govt" that it is "funny to totally forget a fourth possibility: a RN govt". May be a sign that French pollsters are not as confident as people think that French centre and left will pull it off.

🇧🇴 - Criminal investigations opened into former army commander Zuniga.