Macro Trader

S&P 500 Large Caps Are Enjoying This Fed Meeting.

Policymakers lifted the Fed’s target for its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

FOMC 전에 다른게 뭐 그리 중요할까, 🤔

Bottom-line: Green Start US stocks rose after wage data added to evidence inflation is cooling as the FOMC met to discuss its rate tightening path. The S&P added to its monthly gain of more than 5%, while the Nasdaq was heading for a January advance of 10%.

Labor costs have risen at least 1% for six straight quarters, extending what was already a record streak in data back to 1996.

Market Reaction: 노동비용이 예상을 하회하며 시장은 임금과 고용의 수요 우위가 중앙은행으로 하여금 시장에 강한 메시지를 줄 것이란 우려를 완화시킴. 다만, 1%의 비용 증가 자체도 여전히 높아 금리 경로를 탈선시킬 파급은 아님. US employment costs rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the closing months of 2022, but probably not enough to derail the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further and keeping them higher for longer to reduce inflation.

음... 센스있네, 유럽 겨울에 대한 ‘🔥' 반응이라니... 🤔

Bottom-line: 20개국의 유럽 연합이 지난 4분기 경기 수축이란 예상과 달리 확장을 하면서 침체를 피해가는 경로 위에 섰음. 유럽 지역 4분기 경제성장률이 전년 대비 +0.1% 성장했으며, 독일과 이탈리아는 수축, 프랑스와 스페인의 확장했음. 이 지역은 작년 한 해 전쟁 및 두 자릿수 이상의 인플레이션에도 불구 예상을 뛰어넘는 성장을 보였음. 이런 성장은 가계와 기업에 대한 정부 보조 및 생각보다 따듯했던 겨울이 기여한 부분이 있음. The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and the war in Ukraine. Gross domestic product edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, Eurostat said Tuesday, defying economist estimates for a contraction of 0.1%. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion. There was also stronger-than-anticipated data on Monday from Ireland. The euro region, which expanded to 20 countries when Croatia joined on Jan. 1, has struggled with record spike in prices sparked by the war-induced surge in energy costs. Governments have sought to offset the damage for households and firms, however, dispensing billions of euros in aid. A mild winter has also helped to calm energy markets.