Macro Trader

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Market Reaction: 그런데, 과연 주식시장 참여자들은 이 물가지표를 신경쓰고 있었을까? 그렇다면 어제의 상승과 물가지표 발표 전 지수 선물의 상승은 어떻게 설명할 것인가? 주식시장 참여자들은 사실 이 지표를 크게 상관하지 않는 것일지도 모름. As expected, core revised up slightly. Cue the narrative from markets that inflation is higher (month-over-month) and from politicians that it’s lower (year-over-year). Stock market doesn’t care. If traders were really worried about CPI, we wouldn’t have gotten a big rally yesterday and a lift in the futures pre-number. The in-line number was a mere speed bump in the stocks’ advance. Certainly the rally in bonds gives a further excuse for stocks to rally.

Bottom-line: 이제 시장의 중추 질문은 인플레이션 완화 과정 중 일시적 상승인지, 혹은 중앙은행이 곤두서야 할 신호인지 여부임. 다만, 파월 의장은 인플레이션을 통제하는 경로가 순탄하진 않을 것이라 이미 발언했고, 이번 물가지표는 그것을 투영하는 것일 수 있음. The next question for economists is whether this was a blip in an otherwise positive picture of easing inflation, or a sign of sustained price pressures that will require additional Fed attention. Powell has signaled that the path for inflation from here won’t be a smooth one, and this report lines up with that view.

Bottom-line: 모건스탠리의 경우 3월과 5월 통화정책회의에서 25bp씩 금리인상을 추가로 할 것으로 전망을 변경했지만, 5월 이후 노동시장 둔화 및 물가 상승률 둔화로 긴축적인 통화정책이 중단, 12월에는 첫 금리인하를 시행할 것을로 보고 있음. Morgan Stanley’s US economists, led by Ellen Zentner, say that, for the Fed, there isn’t any immediate implication here. Zentner and her team in the past couple of weeks added two rate hikes to their outlook, for March and May. We expect the Fed tightening path to be largely set through the May FOMC, with a 25 basis-point hike at each of the upcoming meetings. Beyond May, however, a slowing labor market and more moderate inflation outcomes should set the stage for a stop in the tightening cycle and an eventual first rate cut in December.

계란 사기 힘들다고 하던데, 상승률 표에서 아주 잘 익은 사과 같이 눈에 띄는구나.

Here is a look at where we are still seeing the most annual inflation.

Bottom-line: 시장 참여자들은 이 정도 숫자에도 흔쾌히 받아들이는 이유는 무엇일까? 그것은 물가지표 산정 방식에 대한 수정 이후 OER에 대한 가중치가 증가했고, 이 영역이 물가 지표를 조금 더 위로 올릴 수 있다고 생각했기 때문임. “Looks like OER is a driver of the slight headline beat .7 vs .8 last. Recall, OER weight increased in the latest revision. That is why people thought upside risk to the number. Used auto weight decreased. Since private market rent data has collapsed, we know that OER is moving even lower over time. That is why market is taking the inline number OK.”

But: 추정치보다 높은 물가지표였지만, 2021년 10월 이후 가장 낮은 전년 대비 증가율이며, 백악관 또한 마찬가지로 추세적으로 물가가 하락 중이라고 강조할 것임. Even though the 6.4% year-on-year CPI increase was higher than the average estimate of economists, it’s still the lowest reading since October 2021 and a tick down from the prior month. The White House is likely to point to the dip in the year-on-year inflation rates. The 6.4% headline CPI gain is the smallest since October 2021. And January marks the seventh straight drop in that rate.

Bottom-line: 이번 물가지표 중 주거 항목이 문제로 부각되고 있는데, 이 항목의 인플레이션이 통제되지 않으면 중앙은행이 원하는 수준의 인플레이션을 보는 일이 더 어려워질 것임. It was largely as expected, but it could have been worse, Stephen Stanley at Santander tells Bloomberg TV and Radio. As long as shelter costs are going up as rapidly as they have been, it’s going to be tough to get inflation down to where the Fed wants to see it.

No meaningful tick down in core services (excluding shelter) monthly inflation.

Market Reaction: 시장 예상치의 경우 평균으로 만들어지는 것인데, 이를 추정한 52명 중 13명은 6.4%의 물가지표 전년 대비 상승을 예상했었음. It looks like 13 of the 52 economists in the Bloomberg survey did anticipate at least a 6.4% year-on-year gain in the headline CPI.

Right on target for the monthly changes.

Bottom-line: 고용지표 발표 이후 중앙은행이 정책금리를 보다 더 올려야 한다는 시장의 중지가 모아진 상태에 있으며, 금일 발표되는 물가지표가 그 방향을 더 강하게 만들 수도 있음. Market expectations for the Fed’s tightening path have risen considerably since the start of the month largely thanks to a far better than expected jobs report on Feb. 3. With risk seemingly skewed slightly to the upside for Tuesday’s release, any print above consensus would likely reinforce the growing view that the Fed has more work to do before they can rest easy, and could push the terminal rate higher and eventual easing further out.

Bottom-line: 인플레이션에 대한 시장 참여자들의 대다수 의견은 중앙은행이 물가 압력 완화에 따른 정책금리 인상 중단이었음. 그러나 물가지표 산정의 집계 기간 변경 후 수정 발표 된 결과는 작년 하반기 물가가 이전보다 높았고, 이로 인해 많은 이코노미스트들이 전망치를 수정했음. The story on inflation up until last week was a positive one as price pressures eased across a range of indicators amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. That narrative completely shifted with the release of CPI revisions Friday. That data showed inflation has higher at the end of last year than previously thought. Deutsche Bank economists called it “rewriting history”, and it led to a flurry of economists’ revisions heading into this week.

Buckle Up for US Inflation Report. 🥶