Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 미국 주가지수의 성장동력을 대변하는 5개의 대형주(애플, 마이크로소프트, 구글, 아마존, 페이스북)가 이번 주 실적을 발표함. 지난 2년 간 꾸준히 두자릿수 성장을 기록했지만, 이번 분기에는 전년 동기 대비 -22% 역성장을 하면서 3개 분기 연속 역성장을 기록할 것으로 예상됨. 이들 5개 대형주가 주가하락으로 3조 달러 가량의 시가총액을 잃고 지수 내 비중이 줄었지만, 여전히 지수의 20% 수준을 차지하고 있음. 뿐만 아니라 전문가들의 추정은 내년에 다시 성장을 할 수 있을 것으로 예상되고 있기 때문에 만일 실적의 부진이 확인될 경우 마침내 최종 항복에 이를 수 있다고 함. Once the key growth engines for the S&P 500 Index, megacap technology stocks are slated to enter this earnings season with diminished stature: profits are expected to fall by the most in at least three years. That’s a prospect that should frighten investors hoping for an end to this year’s bear market. The five biggest firms by revenue among this cohort -- Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. -- are mired in a profit slump, with earnings per share projected to fall 22% from the same quarter of 2021, data compiled by Bloomberg show. After losing roughly $3 trillion in market value combined this year amid slowing economic growth and surging interest rates, the group’s weighting is around the lowest in more than two years. But it still accounts for about a fifth of the benchmark -- more than the utilities, energy and consumer sectors combined. That makes the tech giants as important as ever for the direction of the S&P 500. And with Wall Street analysts projecting that megacap tech profits will rebound in the year ahead, any signs of weakness in their forecasts means trouble for the broader market, according to Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The consensus still expects a relatively rapid recovery in fundamentals to emerge next year,” she said. “If the companies can’t confirm this forecast, this important segment of the S&P 500 may finally capitulate." Investors are on alert, she said, after Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said last week that demand has been affected by downturns in China and Europe. Microsoft and Alphabet will be the first to report, on Tuesday after markets close. Meta Platforms follows Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The group is poised for the third consecutive quarter of falling profits, a stark contrast from the past two years, when the quintet consistently posted solid double-digit growth.

Bottom-line: 알리바바 및 텐센트를 포함하는 대형 기술주 위주의 지수가 시진핑의 독점적 권력이 확정되며 떠나는 투자자들로 인해 큰 폭의 매도세를 보임. 이 지수의 최고점 대비 낙폭은 -74%로 20년 전 미국의 기술주 거품에 따른 나스닥 지수 낙폭인 -78%에 근접. 하지만 분석가들은 바닥을 논하기엔 아직 이르다 함. 이는 시진핑 권력 하에서 그간 기업 뿐만 아니라 민간 기업이 어려운 환경의 사업을 영위했기 때문임. After another day of epic selling, the rout in Chinese technology stocks is rivaling the selloff during the bursting of the US dot-com bubble two decades ago, with analysts saying it’s too soon to call a bottom. The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks shares of internet giants including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd., slumped almost 10% Monday as investors fled the market in response to President Xi Jinping’s tightening control in China. That took the gauge’s plunge from its February 2021 peak to 74%, nearing the Nasdaq Composite Index’s more than yearlong slump of 78% through October 2002. The selloff suggests investors have little hopes of a revival in private enterprise under China’s new leadership, which is stacked with Xi’s allies. The past decade under his reign saw a crackdown to curb the outsized influence of tech giants. “A lot of bad news have been baked in and the market correction is clearly overshooting, but we’re still looking for an inflection point which is unclear for now,” said Xiadong Bao, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris.

Bottom-line: 시진핑이 뚜렷한 후계자를 지정하지 않은채 권력을 연임한 뒤, 14억 중국인들을 위해 경제를 더욱 개방하고 세계와 연결고리를 유지하겠다고 했으며, 경제성장률 데이터까지 예상을 상회했지만 위안화나 증시는 약세를 지속하고 있음. 전문가들은 이번에 집권하면서 시진핑을 보필할 인력들이 그 동안 일관되게 권력에 무조건적으로 동의하며 시진핑의 편에 서 있었다는 점을 위험으로 들고 있음. 그들은 어떠한 경우에도 시진핑의 결정에 도전하지 않을 것이며, 그 누구도 틀렸다고 말하지 않을 것이기 때문임. Minutes after pulling off a power play that stunned even seasoned China experts, a smiling Xi Jinping gave an optimistic outlook for the years ahead. Noting how the Communist Party brought China fast economic growth and social stability over the past 40 years, Xi vowed to further open the world’s second-biggest economy and stay connected with the rest of the globe. The party would align its priorities with the nation’s 1.4 billion people, he said, and continue working hard to give them “a better life.”. “Its strong fundamentals will not change,” Xi said on Sunday to conclude a twice-a-decade reshuffle of top party leaders, referring to China’s economy. “And it will remain on the positive trajectory over the long run.”. By stacking China’s most powerful bodies with his allies, Xi has ensured he’ll be around to see those pledges through -- possibly for at least another decade after he appointed no obvious potential successors. Yet rather than cheering the stability offered by the 69-year-old leader, who is currently 10 years younger than US President Joe Biden, many China watchers are worried that nobody will tell Xi when he’s wrong. “These are all officials who got to the highest level of power by agreeing with Xi Jinping on everything and by siding with him consistently,” said Victor Shih, associate professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. “They will not start to challenge his decisions regardless of the merits of these decisions.”. China’s yuan and the country’s stocks tumbled in Hong Kong to the lowest level since the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis even as economic growth data beat estimates. The onshore yuan depreciated as much as 0.4% on Monday, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, plunged more than 5%.

wow... 2k, 🙇🏻‍♂️

하루의 시세보다 중장기 고민을 위해, 오늘은 아래 내용을 도슨트 하겠습니다. 1. 7인의 중국 리더(The Seven Men Who Will Lead China Into Xi’s Third Term) 2. LDI 관련(LDI Chaos Likely to Hurt Private Equity and Property Allocations)

US Equity Futures Off to Flying Start on Monday. 🦅

자정 전에 올리려고 적다보니 자연실업률을 자언실업률로, 문서를 문저로 오기했습니다. 본래라면 삭제하고 다시 올리겠으나, 이번엔 오타를 수정하고 edited 상태로 둡니다. 안녕히 주무세요. 🙇🏻‍♂️

Docent: 얼마전 중앙은행에서 2020년의 보고서 수정본을 발간하면서 물가안정과 자연실업률 상태에 놓이는 중립금리(r*) 외에 금융시장이 안정될 수 있는 상태의 중립금리(r**)를 제시했음. 이 기사는 파이낸셜 타임즈 내용이며, 꽤나 명쾌한 추론을 하고 있기에 도슨트가 되어 소개코자 함. 물가안정과 자언실업률을 향하는 중립금리(r*)는 현재 우리가 목도하는 것처럼 너무나 멀리 있음. 높은 인플레이션을 통제하기 위한 금리인상 속에 미국 중앙은행은 고통과 비용이 따를 것이라 단언하며, 영국 중앙은행 또한 금리인상을 망설이지 않을 것이라 발언했고, 유럽 중앙은행 또한 우리가 지금 해야 할 일을 계속 할 것이라 함. 이 모든 것은 거시경제 안정(완전고용과 물가안정)을 위한 것임. 하지만 때때로 이 금리를 향해 가다보면 은행이 벽에 부딪힐 때가 있을 것임. 자본시장의 토대가 되는 금융기관들조차 흔들리는 금융 안정성 문제가 부각 될 수 있다는 것임. 하지만 뱅크 오브 아메리카가 5%, 래리 서머스가 6%의 실업률을 제안한 것처럼 중립금리(r*)에서는 이를 어찌할 방도가 없음. 그러므로 서로 다른 작동 원리를 가지는 금리가 필요하게 됨. 그것이 바로 금융 안정성을 위한 중립금리(r**)임. 과거 앨런 그린스펀의 풋 옵션(금리인하)은 이러한 금융시장 안정성(LTCM)과 연관이 있었다는 것도 지목하고 있음. 금융시장은 금리인하를 원하고 있음. 또 다른 중립금리(r**)를 제시함에 따라 시장 참여자들은 완전고용이나 물가안정과 관련 된 중립금리(r*)는 잊어버릴 수도 있을 것임. 브라보! 이 문저는 금융 불안정성의 역할이 무엇인지 정확히 설명했음. Four economists from the New York Fed have recently released a revised version of a 2020 paper entitled The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**. And what, pray tell, is r-star-star? Again, easy. If r-star is the natural real rate of interest associated with macroeconomic stability (caveat emptor), then r-star-star is the rate associated with financial stability. Cool. You can watch the paper being presented at a recent Fed event here. It’s engrossing. Spoiler alert though. There’s a major catch. Both conceptually and observationally r** differs from the “natural real interest rate” and from the observed real interest rate reflecting a tension in terms of macroeconomic stabilization versus financial stability objectives. Great. Financial stability ≠ macroeconomic stability. R-star ≠ r-star-star. Moreover, the two part ways just when it matters most — a financial crisis (basically, whenever banking hits the wall). We’re already seeing this tension play out. To choke inflation, American business leaders expect the Fed to spank labour. Bank of America expects a 5.5 per cent unemployment rate. Frankly, as Larry Summers has suggested, over 6 per cent wouldn’t be weird. So, the price mechanism and households (occasionally) need different interest rates. Full employment and price stability are (occasionally) at odds. Financial instability, meanwhile, will happily challenge both. Basically, there are conditions under which the dual mandate (alias: internal equilibrium) must take a back seat to capital markets (alias: global equilibrium). As per the paper: . . . “Greenspan’s put” . . . has been a feature of all financial stress episodes in the US [since the 1970s], with the only exception being the later part of the Great Financial Crisis . . . [in] general we note that financial stress episodes are associated with periods in which the real interest rate is above our measure of r**. Translation: financial markets want their policy cut. Otherwise, they’re gonna pay you a little visit. And when they do, you can forget whatever fed funds rate you think is appropriate for full employment and/or price stability. Bravo to the NY Fed. This paper has, in all fairness, explained exactly what it is that financial instability does.

Bottom-line: 비트코인의 가격 움직임이 S&P 500 지수 및 나스닥 100 지수와 각각 0.69, 0.72의 상관관계를 가지고 있지만, 이는 몇개월 전까지 거의 똑같은 자산같이 움직이던 때보다 낮아지는 추세에 있음. 반면 8월까지 0의 상관관계를 가지던 금과 현재 0.50의 상관관계까지 가파르게 높아짐. 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 거시경제 환경이 불확실하고 시장의 저점을 향한 하락이 남았단 생각이 투자자들로 하여금 비트코인을 다시 안전자산처럼 여기도록 어떤 변화의 과정에 있지 않나 추정함. Bitcoin’s movements in relation to other assets may indicate that investors see it becoming a haven again, after a stretch where it’s traded basically as a risk asset, according to Bank of America Corp. The largest cryptocurrency has a 40-day correlation with gold of about 0.50, up from around zero in mid-August. While the correlations are higher with the S&P 500, at 0.69, and Nasdaq 100 at 0.72, they’ve flattened out and are below record levels from a few months ago. BofA digital strategists Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss see that as a sign that things could be changing. “A decelerating positive correlation with SPX/QQQ and a rapidly rising correlation with XAU indicate that investors may view Bitcoin as a relative safe haven as macro uncertainty continues and a market bottom remains to be seen,” the strategists wrote.

Bottom-line: 메리 데일리는 경제지표들이 도움을 주고 있지 않지만, 최종 정책금리가 다가 올 수록 한 번에 인상하는 금리 폭을 50bp 혹은 25bp로 낮춰야 한다고 생각함. 또한 시장 참여자들도 75bp 금리인상이 끊임없이 연속 될 것이라 단정짓지 말것을 권고함. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that policymakers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, though it’s not yet time to “step down” from large hikes. “It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said Friday in a fireside chat hosted by the University of California Berkeley. At the November meeting, “we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75 basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever.”. A slowdown to more incremental increases of 50 or 25 basis points will be appropriate as the Fed’s benchmark rate gets closer to its terminal level for this hiking cycle, Daly said.

US stocks rally on bets rate-rise pace to slow. 🏌🏼

Bottom-line: 달러 대비 엔화 변동이 극적이지만, 개입에 의한 것으로 보이진 않음. Behind the dramatic action in the Japanese yen is someone likely working a sell order into the 11am fix. The USDJPY pair doesn’t trade like intervention--you don’t get that kind of bounce when BOJ is selling.