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Trump Defends Russia Sanctions Waiver as Ukraine Peace Talks Continue U.S. President Donald Trump has defended his decision to waive key sanctions against Russia, arguing that tougher measures could push Moscow away from negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. In a Truth Social post on October 18, Trump said progress was being made in peace discussions and hostage negotiations. He also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for targeting Russian diesel refineries, claiming the attacks were disrupting global diesel supplies and driving up costs for American businesses and farmers. The decision to suspend key sanctions provisions for a 60-day review has drawn criticism from Ukraine and raised questions about the future direction of U.S. policy toward Russia. The policy shift could have implications for global energy markets, particularly if easing restrictions allows more Russian fuel to reach international buyers.

Fed Rate Decision Near U.S. Midterm Elections: History Favours a Pause The Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision on October 28 will come just six days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. After raising rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00% to combat persistent inflation, policymakers now face a delicate balancing act between controlling rising prices and supporting economic growth. According to CME Group’s historical analysis of 27 U.S. election years from 1972 to 2024, the Fed made no policy changes between September 1 and Election Day in 52% of cases. When the observation period begins on October 1, the proportion rises to 67%. However, the historical trend does not guarantee that the Fed will remain on hold. Previous rate increases near elections were often driven by persistent inflation, while rate cuts were more commonly associated with economic slowdowns or financial crises.

U.S. Dollar Weakens as Treasury Yields Retreat from Recent Highs The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its decline on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields pulled back after failing to sustain their recent rally. The index slipped around 0.1% to near 102.02 after encountering selling pressure near its yearly high of 102.54. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note retreated to approximately 5.23% from Thursday’s high of 5.35%. Lower oil prices also weighed on the dollar after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not launch attacks against Iran before the November midterm elections. Despite the recent pullback, the dollar could remain supported by persistent inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again later this year. 美国国债收益率回落，美元进一步走弱 周五，美国国债收益率从近期高位回落，推动美元指数（DXY）延续跌势。美元指数下跌约0.1%，至102.02附近，此前在接近年度高点102.54时遭遇明显卖压。与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率从周四的5.35%高位回落至约5.23%。随着美国总统特朗普表示，美国在11月中期选举前不会对伊朗发动军事打击，油价回落也进一步削弱了美元的支撑。

Euro Hits 17-Month Low as French Fiscal Worries Boost Dollar The euro fell to a 17-month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday as growing concerns over France’s fiscal position and political uncertainty weighed heavily on the single currency. The euro slipped as low as $1.1161, its weakest level since May 2025, while the spread between French and German government bond yields widened to levels not seen since the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The renewed concerns over France’s debt and budget deficit are raising fears of broader financial instability within the eurozone. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index climbed to 102.33, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in October despite recent weaker U.S. jobs data. 法国财政担忧加剧，欧元跌至17个月低点 周一欧元兑美元跌至17个月低点，法国财政状况恶化及政治不确定性持续打压欧元。欧元一度跌至1.1161美元，为2025年5月以来最低水平。同时，法国与德国国债收益率之间的利差扩大至欧元区主权债务危机以来的高位，反映出市场对法国财政状况的担忧正在升温。 法国不断上升的债务及预算赤字，引发市场对欧元区金融稳定性的担忧。与此同时，美元指数升至102.33，尽管近期美国就业数据偏弱，但市场预计美联储10月份维持利率不变的可能性正在上升

U.S. Unemployment Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since July U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell to 197,000 last week, down from a revised 198,000 previously and the lowest level since mid-July. The four-week average also declined by 2,500 to 200,000, with jobless claims remaining below 220,000 for most of the year. The data suggests layoffs remain historically low, even as hiring activity has moderated. The resilient labor market could provide support for the U.S. economy, but it may also give the Federal Reserve less urgency to ease monetary policy if inflation remains elevated. With September’s employment report due next week, markets will closely watch whether the strength in jobless claims is reflected in broader employment data. 美国初请失业金人数降至7月中旬以来最低 美国上周申请失业救济人数降至19.7万人，低于此前经修正的19.8万人，并创下7月中旬以来的最低水平。与此同时，四周平均值下降2,500人至20万人。今年以来，初请失业金人数大部分时间都维持在22万人以下，显示企业裁员情况仍处于历史低位，尽管整体招聘活动有所放缓。 强劲的劳动力市场可能继续为美国经济提供支持，但如果通胀仍然偏高，也可能降低美联储进一步放松货币政策的紧迫性。随着美国9月份就业报告即将公布，市场将关注近期低失业金申请人数能否反映在整体就业数据中。

U.S. Economy Runs Hot as Consumer Spending and Inflation Stay Elevated The U.S. economy continues to show strong momentum, with inflation-adjusted consumer spending rising 0.55% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in August. Nominal consumer spending increased 0.86% from July and 6.1% from a year earlier, reaching an annualized $22.3 trillion. Strong spending on services, durable goods and discretionary items suggests that American consumers remain resilient despite higher energy prices and broader economic uncertainty. At the same time, persistent inflation and strong economic activity are keeping pressure on the bond market. The latest PCE data showed headline inflation at 3.42% year-on-year in August, while core PCE remained around 3.0%, both above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Higher Treasury yields could reinforce expectations that interest rates remain elevated for longer, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar while weighing on gold and other rate-sensitive assets.

German Unemployment Falls in September, but Labour Market Remains Weak Germany’s unemployment numbers improved in September, with the unadjusted number of unemployed falling slightly below three million for the first time since June. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also remained at 6.4%. ING said the post-summer recovery in the labour market was not particularly strong, suggesting that the gradual deterioration seen over recent years may have paused, but has not necessarily ended. Looking ahead, ING sees tentative signs of cyclical stabilisation, including a bottoming out in hiring plans in industry and some improvement in services. 德国9月失业人数下降，但劳动力市场仍然疲弱 德国9月份失业人数有所改善，未经季节性调整的失业人数小幅降至300万人以下，为6月以来首次低于这一水平。经季节性调整后的失业率则维持在6.4%。ING表示，德国夏季过后的就业市场复苏并不算强劲，近年来持续恶化的就业趋势可能暂时有所缓解，但尚未完全结束。 展望未来，ING认为德国劳动力市场开始出现周期性稳定的初步迹象，包括工业企业招聘计划逐渐触底，以及服务业就业情况略有改善。

Trump Expects Canada Trade Deal Within Weeks as Import Bans Take Effect U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects Canada to return to the negotiating table and reach a trade agreement within the next three to four weeks, even as new U.S. import bans on selected Canadian goods take effect. The measures cover products including alcoholic beverages, dairy items and motorcycles, adding to the 50% tariffs already imposed on a range of Canadian goods. The latest restrictions mark another escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade dispute, although the immediate impact on Canada's overall economy is expected to remain limited. At the same time, continued uncertainty over tariffs and the future of the USMCA could weigh on business confidence, investment and cross-border trade. 特朗普预计数周内与加拿大达成贸易协议，进口禁令正式生效 美国总统特朗普表示，他预计加拿大将在未来三至四周内重返谈判桌并达成贸易协议，但与此同时，美国针对部分加拿大商品的新进口禁令已经生效。相关措施涉及酒类、乳制品及摩托车等产品，并叠加在此前对部分加拿大商品征收的50%关税之上。 最新限制措施进一步加剧了美加贸易争端，不过短期内对加拿大整体经济的影响预计仍然有限。与此同时，关税政策及《美墨加协定》（USMCA）未来走向的不确定性，可能影响企业信心、投资及跨境贸易。

Bessent Warns Iran Could Run Out of Oil to Trade Within Two Weeks U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Iran could have little or nothing left to trade within two weeks as U.S. sanctions and a blockade increasingly restrict the country’s oil exports. Bessent said around 15 million barrels of Iranian crude remain scheduled for delivery, mainly to China, after which Iran could face significantly greater economic pressure. The potential loss of Iran’s remaining oil export revenue could further strain its economy and increase uncertainty across global energy markets. Iran’s oil exports have already fallen sharply, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns over global oil supplies. 贝森特警告：伊朗两周内可能失去剩余石油贸易 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特警告称，随着美国制裁及封锁措施进一步限制伊朗石油出口，伊朗可能在未来两周内几乎没有可用于贸易的资源。贝森特表示，目前约有1,500万桶伊朗原油仍在等待交付，主要运往中国，完成这些交付后，伊朗可能面临更大的经济压力。 伊朗剩余石油出口收入可能进一步减少，将加剧其经济压力，并增加全球能源市场的不确定性。伊朗石油出口量已经大幅下降，而霍尔木兹海峡附近的供应及运输风险仍令市场担忧全球石油供应

Trump-Xi Summit Extends Trade Truce, but Major Issues Remain U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Washington on September 24, with both sides agreeing to extend their existing trade truce until January 10, 2027. The extension reduces the risk of an immediate escalation in tariffs and gives both countries additional time to continue negotiations. However, the summit did not produce detailed new tariff cuts or firm commitments on key issues such as rare-earth supplies and advanced AI chips. The outcome could provide some near-term stability for global markets, but uncertainty remains over what happens after the new January deadline. Developments involving tariffs, semiconductor restrictions, rare-earth exports and U.S.-China trade flows could continue to influence global growth, inflation and supply chains. 特朗普与习近平会晤延长贸易休战期，但核心问题仍未解决 美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平于9月24日在华盛顿举行会晤，双方同意将现有的贸易休战期延长至2027年1月10日。此次延长降低了短期内关税进一步升级的风险，并为两国继续谈判争取更多时间。然而，会谈并未就进一步降低关税、稀土供应或先进人工智能芯片等关键问题达成具体的新协议。

PIMCO Warns September Fed Hike Could Signal More Tightening PIMCO says the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike could represent more than a short-term risk-management move, with the possibility that policymakers may need to maintain a tighter stance for longer. The Fed has raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, while policymakers’ projections point to another rate increase later in 2026. Persistent inflation, rising energy prices and resilient economic activity remain key concerns for policymakers. The shift toward a more restrictive policy stance could support the U.S. dollar while putting pressure on rate-sensitive assets such as gold and bonds. Markets will closely watch upcoming inflation and employment data for clues on whether additional tightening will be required. PIMCO警告：美联储9月加息可能不只是风险管理措施 PIMCO表示，美联储9月份的加息可能不仅仅是短期的风险管理措施，政策制定者可能需要在更长时间内维持较为紧缩的货币政策。美联储已将利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，而政策制定者的预测显示，2026年稍后可能还会再次加息。持续的通胀压力、能源价格上涨以及美国经济保持韧性，仍是美联储关注的主要因素。 更紧缩的货币政策立场可能继续支撑美元，同时对黄金及债券等利率敏感型资产造成压力。

Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens as Exports Rise The euro area recorded a €14.2 billion trade surplus in July, up from €10.7 billion a year earlier and €7.2 billion in June. Exports to countries outside the euro area rose 9.0% year-on-year to €276 billion, while imports increased 7.9% to €261.8 billion. The stronger trade balance was mainly supported by higher surpluses in chemicals, manufactured goods, and food and drink. The stronger trade performance could provide some support to the euro area economy, although the region continues to face uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs. Notably, exports to the United States increased 10.7% year-on-year, while imports from China rose 8.0%, highlighting the importance of global trade to the region. 欧元区贸易顺差扩大，出口持续增长 欧元区7月份录得142亿欧元的贸易顺差，高于去年同期的107亿欧元，也较6月份的72亿欧元明显扩大。欧元区对外出口同比增长9.0%，达到2760亿欧元；进口则增长7.9%，达到2618亿欧元。贸易表现改善主要受到化工产品、其他制造品以及食品和饮料贸易顺差扩大的推动。 贸易表现改善可能为欧元区经济提供一定支持，但该地区仍面临关税、地缘政治局势及能源成本上升等不确定因素。

Gold Slips as Oil Rally Fuels Fed Rate-Hike Bets Gold prices fell on Monday as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Spot gold dropped around 0.9% to $4,308.24 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar strengthened to a one-week high, adding further pressure on the dollar-priced precious metal. Markets are now pricing in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike. The recent surge in oil prices, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and concerns over supply disruptions, could keep inflation elevated and encourage central banks to maintain a tighter policy stance. 价上涨推高加息预期，黄金价格承压 周一黄金价格下跌，油价上涨加剧通胀担忧，并进一步强化市场对美联储即将加息的预期。现货黄金下跌约0.9%，至每盎司4,308.24美元，而美元则升至一周高位，进一步打压以美元计价的黄金。目前市场预计美联储加息25个基点的概率已升至89%。 近期油价因中东局势升级及供应中断风险而大幅上涨，可能使通胀持续处于高位，并促使各国央行维持较为紧缩的货币政策。利率及债券收益率上升通常会降低黄金的吸引力，因为黄金本身不会产生利息收益

U.S.-Iran War Escalates as Oil Prices Surge and Sanctions Tighten The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to put pressure on global energy markets, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz threatening to keep oil supplies constrained. Brent crude has climbed above $100 a barrel, while the U.S. administration is preparing additional sanctions targeting Iran’s financial and energy sectors, including a major bank. The prolonged conflict is raising concerns over further disruptions to global trade and energy flows. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation risks and could make it more difficult for central banks to ease monetary policy. Markets are already pricing in greater chances of further interest-rate increases, while rising bond yields have also supported the U.S. dollar. 美伊战争持续升级，油价上涨与制裁加剧市场压力 美伊冲突持续对全球能源市场造成压力，霍尔木兹海峡附近的运输受阻可能使全球石油供应持续紧张。布伦特原油价格已突破每桶100美元，美国政府也准备进一步扩大对伊朗金融及能源领域的制裁，其中包括针对一家大型银行的制裁。持续的军事冲突正加剧市场对全球贸易及能源供应进一步受扰的担忧。 油价上涨正在推高全球通胀风险，并可能限制各国央行降息的空间。市场目前已提高对进一步加息的预期，而债券收益率上升也为美元提供支撑。

Fitch Warns Tariff Escalation Raises Risks for Canada Fitch Ratings said the latest escalation in U.S.-Canada trade tensions highlights growing risks for the Canadian economy, although the immediate macroeconomic impact is expected to remain limited. The latest measures come as Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs on around US$20 billion of U.S. goods, while the U.S. has introduced additional tariffs and import restrictions on selected Canadian products. While the direct impact may be manageable in the near term, Fitch warns that a prolonged trade conflict could weigh on business confidence, investment and economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding future tariffs and the stability of the U.S.-Canada trade relationship could also place additional pressure on the Canadian dollar. 惠誉警告关税升级增加加拿大经济风险 惠誉评级表示，近期不断升级的美加贸易紧张局势正凸显加拿大经济面临的风险，但短期内对整体经济的直接影响预计仍然有限。加拿大已对约200亿美元的美国商品实施报复性关税，而美国也进一步对部分加拿大产品加征关税并实施进口限制，使两国贸易关系持续恶化。 虽然短期经济影响可能仍然可控，但如果贸易冲突持续，可能削弱企业信心、投资及经济增长。同时，未来关税政策的不确定性以及美加贸易关系的不稳定，也可能进一步给加元带来压力。

EUR/USD Faces Downside Risk Ahead of ECB Decision EUR/USD could face another pullback as traders turn their attention to the European Central Bank’s upcoming policy decision. While the euro’s broader trend remains relatively positive, a widely expected ECB rate hike could trigger a “sell-the-fact” reaction if policymakers deliver a more cautious outlook on further tightening. Rising energy prices have pushed eurozone inflation higher, although underlying inflation and services inflation have shown some signs of easing. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside, with the pair potentially retracing towards the 1.15 area before buyers return. However, the broader bullish trend could remain intact if the ECB maintains a hawkish stance and continues to signal that further tightening may be necessary 欧洲央行决议临近，欧元兑美元面临进一步下行风险 欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）可能面临进一步回调，市场目前将焦点转向欧洲央行即将公布的利率决定。尽管欧元整体走势仍相对强劲，但市场已充分预期欧洲央行加息，若央行对未来进一步加息持较为谨慎的态度，可能引发“利好兑现”行情。与此同时，能源价格上涨推动欧元区整体通胀升温，但核心通胀及服务业通胀近期有所放缓。

Gold Rises as Dollar Weakens Ahead of US Inflation Data Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, with investors turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision. Spot gold rose 0.6% to around $4,429.89 per ounce, while the dollar index slipped 0.4%, making gold more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. Markets are now watching the upcoming Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data closely. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, potentially putting pressure on gold, while softer inflation could reduce rate-hike expectations and provide further support for the precious metal. 美元走弱及美国通胀数据受关注，黄金价格上涨 周二黄金价格上涨，主要受到美元走弱及市场等待美国通胀数据的推动。现货黄金上涨0.6%，至每盎司约4,429.89美元，而美元指数下跌0.4%，使以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者更具吸引力。 市场目前正密切关注即将公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）及消费者价格指数（CPI），以判断美联储下一步利率政策。若通胀数据高于预期，可能强化市场对加息的预期，并对黄金造成压力；若数据低于预期，则可能降低加息预期，为黄金提供进一步支撑。

Trump and Xi Set to Meet as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Persist U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in the United States on September 24, with trade, technology, and broader economic relations likely to remain key topics. The meeting comes as both countries continue to negotiate tariffs and other trade restrictions, while seeking to prevent tensions from escalating further. Markets will closely watch whether the meeting produces progress on tariffs and trade cooperation, as any breakthrough could improve global risk sentiment, while renewed tensions could increase concerns over inflation, supply chains, and economic growth. 特朗普与习近平即将会面，中美贸易紧张局势持续 美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平预计将于9月24日在美国举行会晤，贸易、科技及更广泛的经济关系预计将成为重要议题。此次会面之际，中美两国仍在就关税及其他贸易限制进行谈判，同时努力避免双方紧张关系进一步升级。 市场将密切关注此次会谈能否在关税及贸易合作方面取得进展。若双方达成突破，可能提振全球市场风险情绪；若紧张局势重新升级，则可能加剧市场对通胀、供应链及经济增长的担忧。

U.S. Dollar Steadies Near Two-Week High as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil The U.S. dollar held near a two-week high as renewed hostilities in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and strengthening demand for the greenback as a safe-haven currency. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have also continued to support the dollar, even as recent U.S. economic data came in below expectations. 中东局势推高油价，美元维持两周高位 随着中东冲突再度升级，油价持续上涨，市场对通胀的担忧升温，推动美元作为避险货币维持在两周高位附近。 与此同时，美国国债收益率上升，以及市场对美联储进一步加息的预期增强，也持续为美元提供支撑，尽管近期美国经济数据表现低于市场预期。

Trump Says U.S. Growth Could Reach 20% President Donald Trump said the U.S. economy could potentially achieve growth of up to 20% if his administration’s policies are implemented effectively. The comments reflect his continued push for stronger economic growth, lower interest rates, and policies aimed at boosting investment and business activity. Such expectations could influence market sentiment, particularly around U.S. interest rates, the dollar, and inflation 特朗普称美国经济增长率可能达到20% 美国总统特朗普表示，如果其政府的经济政策能够有效落实，美国经济增长率可能达到20%。这一言论反映出特朗普持续推动更强劲经济增长、降低利率以及促进投资和商业活动的政策方向。 相关预期可能影响市场情绪，尤其是美国利率、美元及通胀走势