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FREE PICKS STATS OCTOBER 🚀
Over 1.25 Sporting B - Langreo @1.80 ✅ +0.80
Malaga - Espanyol (0-1), Malaga +0 @1.83 ✅ +0.83
Valencia - Athletic, Valencia +0.25 @1.97 ✅🔵️️️️️️ +0.44
Lebrijana - Getafe (2-2), Getafe -1 @1.83 🔵️️️️️️ 0
Sporting Gijon B - San Martin (0-0), Sporting B -1 @1.88 ❌ -1
Total: +1.07 units
FREE PICKS STATS SEASON 26/27 🚀
✅ July: +2.11
✅ August: +1.63
❌ September: -1.33
✅ October: +1.63
TOTAL: +4.04 units
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Sporting Gijon B - San Martin (0-0)
Sporting B -1 @1.88
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Time to dust off my Copa del Rey spreadsheet again! 🏆
Every matchup, opening line, closing line, upsets, surprises, fair lines and results — all tracked and analysed across the last 5 years.
It’s one of the best rounds of the season to find value, and I’ll be going through every relevant game again for 2026.
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Valencia - Athletic
Valencia +0.25 @1.97
I expect a reaction from Valencia under Javier Aguirre. His first match against Racing was far from convincing and, in my opinion, the draw was probably a fair result. Racing were the better side for long periods and Valencia could easily have lost, but at the same time Hugo Duro had a huge chance in the final minutes to win the game. It was not a good performance, but I would not draw too many conclusions from Aguirre’s first match.
I simply do not believe this Valencia squad is as poor as their league position and numbers suggest. There is more quality here than we have seen so far, and I expect them to improve with Aguirre. He is an extremely experienced coach in Spanish football and has built his career around making struggling teams competitive, organised and difficult to beat.
There was also clearly a problem with the previous coaching situation. The relationship between Corberán and part of the squad had deteriorated and the atmosphere around the team was not good. Now there is a new coach and a new sporting direction, so the players have very few excuses. For me, that can bring back some of the intensity and motivation that Valencia were lacking.
Tactically, I expect Aguirre to start from the defence. His best teams have normally been compact, physical and very difficult to break down. Against Racing he started with a back five, but the early goal changed the match completely. Valencia dropped far too deep and spent too much time protecting their own area. I would not be surprised if Aguirre now returns to a back four, especially after the improvement when he changed the shape during that game.
This also looks like a good opponent for Valencia to try to play this type of controlled match against. Athletic have gone around a month without playing an official game after their recent postponements, and it is difficult to know exactly what rhythm they will have. They are also missing important offensive players, particularly Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams. Nico is, for me, their most dangerous and differential attacking player.
Athletic’s strength is more in their defensive organisation, midfield intensity and pressing than in pure attacking quality. They can dominate territory and recover the ball very high, but I have doubts about their ability to turn that control into clear chances and goals. Before this long break, the draws at home against Elche and Alavés were worrying examples. In both matches they had problems breaking down organised defensive structures and lacked the final pass and finishing quality.
That is exactly the type of match I think Aguirre will try to create at Mestalla: few spaces, few transitions and long periods where very little happens. Valencia do not need to suddenly become an excellent attacking side. They first need to become difficult to beat again.
With Athletic lacking rhythm and some of their most talented offensive players, and Valencia playing at Mestalla with the motivation that normally comes with a new coach, I see a much more competitive home side than their current league position might suggest
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Sporting B - Langreo (0-0)
Over 1,25 @1.80
Expect both teams scoring here. The two are promotion contenders, pressing high, and with doubs in defense, especilly Langreo. Lot of pace and both playing fast, with mistakes at the back. Also both teams have had chances enough to score, expect minimum 1:1.
