Crypto Push

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​​ETH’s Shanghai update: Assessing what it means for the Ethereum ecosystem 2022 has been a busy period for the Ethereum community with many updates already released. The ETH 2.0 is expected to be launched in June 2022. But that is not it. The All Core Developers of the Ethereum blockchain has released the preliminary specifications of the latest update called Shanghai. What is the Shanghai update? Shanghai comprises of three major changes along with several small ones. The first is the EVM Object Format (EIP-3540). It introduces the separation of code and data. This separation is especially beneficial for on-chain code validators (like those utilized by layer-2 scaling tools, such as Optimism). It also introduces new contract code section types to solve complicated features such as Account Abstraction, control flow in EVM, and EIP-3074. After several attempts, Ethereum has finally announced the Beacon chain withdrawal on its blockchain. There are a variety of security concerns around staked ETH eligible for withdrawal. The update would facilitate the consensus layer to handle the security concerns and ensures safe passage for transactions. The third major change is the Layer 2 Fee Reductions, anticipated by many developers because of increasing competition by Solana and Cardano. This EIP helps to balance out the increasing block sizes. It proposes a maximum cap to the amount of CALLDATA in a block. It is a simple change with significant fee reductions on Layer 2. The EIP-4844 also lays the founding bricks for a full sharding implementation to further reduce Layer 2 fees. The news did not end there with the AllCoreDev team ending the announcement with, “Expect another update in a month or two. In the meantime, we’ll also have the chance to discuss all of this face to face at Devconnect — see you in Amsterdam 👋🏻🇳🇱!” Will Shanghai delay the Merge? The soft fork comes after the grand Merge which has its own list of upgrades on the Ethereum network. But the Merge is finally set to happen in June 2022 with the team pressing further on its release, “Our main priority remains The Merge, with a renewed focus on testing. Over the next month, we are hoping to finalize implementations, run multiple short-lived devnets, and gather feedback from application, infrastructure and tooling providers.”

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​​Litecoin’s bulls must look out for these divergences in price action After its latest bullish rally, Litecoin (LTC) finally saw a close above its long-term liquidity range (Point of Control/POC) while rising within an ascending channel (white). With the 4-hour 50 EMA (cyan) jumping above the 200 EMA (green), the bulls have steered the trend in their favor over the last few days. Now, as the price keeps testing the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB), it could see a short-term pullback towards the $115-mark. At press time, LTC was trading at $119.2, up by 4.1% over the last 24 hours. LTC 4-hour Chart At last, the buyers stepped in at the 15-month-long support near $90. As a result, the altcoin registered over 30% ROI from its 64-week low on 24 February to date. While recovering from its previous sell-off losses, it found a close above its 20/50/200 EMA. Meanwhile, the 50 EMA undertook a bullish crossover with its 200 EMA. This reading entailed the bulls had taken charge of the trend while they reclaimed the $116-support. Owing to the overbought readings on its BB, LTC could see a near-term setback towards the lower trendline of its up-channel. Following this, it would most likely continue its up-channel trajectory towards its three-month trendline resistance (white, dashed). Also, with the 20 EMA still looking north, the bulls made it a point to keep the uptrend intact for a while. Rationale The RSI hovered near the overbought region while marking lower peaks over the past two days. This reading confirmed the bullish vigor but disclosed a bearish divergence with the price. Thus, affirming the possibility of a near-term pullback before a recovery. Furthermore, the OBV corresponded with the RSI by bearishly diverging with the price. Conclusion Considering the oversold readings on the BB with the divergences on the OBV and RSI, the alt positioned itself for a short-term pullback towards the 20 EMA. Soon after, the bulls might try to maintain their edge and aim for recovery at the $123-zone. Moreover, LTC shares a 72% 30-day correlation with the king coin. A close eye on Bitcoin’s movement would be imperative to make a profitable move.

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​​Assessing Bitcoin and the possibility for a full-scale bull run Bitcoin price has shown no signs of escaping the consolidation that has been ongoing for roughly two months now. This lack of volatility is getting worse with each passing week and as another week comes to an end, investors can expect a minor uptrend but the long-term outlook remains capped at $45,550. Coiled-up markets rarely rally Bitcoin price has been stuck trading between $46,000 and $35,000 for roughly two months with no directional bias in sight. Each week BTC rallies quickly but gets rejected and heads down slowly. Stuck between the daily demand zone ($36,398 to $38,895) and the weekly supply zone ($45,550 to $51,993), Bitcoin price is directionless. To make matters worse, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $40,326 and the 100-day SMA at $42,492 are squeezing the price even more. A breakout from this range tightening could result in a small move to upside but the move is limited to $45,550. Even if buyers manage to push the price higher, BTC will face the 200-day SMA at $48,550. Hence, an upside for BTC from a technical standpoint seems unlikely. Considering the uncertainty in the global markets and the high correlation between the traditional markets and BTC, a crash in the prior will easily be felt by the latter. Therefore, the scenarios in which Bitcoin price will kick-start a bull run is extremely slim. While things are looking relatively limited for Bitcoin price, the short-term holders’ chart for BTC depicts a potential crack that could potentially propagate and lead to a massive crash. Roughly 2.51 million BTC are being held by investors termed as “short-term holders.” This category of investors is usually looking to take short-term profits and are more likely to sell their stack at the slightest inconvenience. Often these holders are also nick-named “weak hands.” Since 2.51 million BTC is already being held at a loss by these investors, a flash crash could trigger these investors to sell their holdings to prevent experiencing further losses. Therefore, investors need to expect a capitulation event to take place before a stable bottom forms. This move is likely going to be the place where long-term buyers will accumulate, kick-starting another bull run for BTC. In this case, Bitcoin price will likely make a run for the $60,000 psychological level and eventually scale up to $80,000, where it will set a new high.

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​​Ethereum, Cosmos, Near Price Analysis: 16 March As the king alt finally found a close above the $2,600-level, it jumped above its 20/50 EMA. Now, as it flashed a bullish edge on its technicals, it endeavored to challenge its reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart. Cosmos faced a strong rejection of higher prices at the $27-mark while its 20 EMA continued to be a hurdle. On the other hand, Near managed to break out of its pattern but its RSI still needed a close above 50 to confirm a change in momentum. Ether (ETH) Since falling below the $3,200-mark, ETH found an oscillating range between the above mark and the $2,300 base. After falling from its ATH, the bearish phase led ETH to lose more than half its value as it gravitated towards its six-month low on 24 January. Recently, ETH saw a morning star candlestick pattern that propelled a close above its 20/50 EMA. Now, the upper trendline of the down-channel posed an immediate barrier for the bulls. At press time, ETH was trading at $2,640.2. The bullish RSI undertook a steep upturn from the 37-floor. A close above the 58 mark would position it for a test of its overbought region. Also, the CMF crossed the midline and affirmed the increased money volumes into the crypto. Cosmos (ATOM) Since falling from the $43-mark, the alt had been on a sharp downturn by marking lower peaks and troughs. The recent sell-off phase led ATOM to lose nearly 30% (from 17 February) of its value until it touched its two-month low on 24 February. Following this, the bulls stepped in as the alt rose in a rising wedge (white) while snapping the trendline support and reclaiming the $25-mark again. Now, the 20 EMA (red) would be an immediate hurdle for the bulls. At press time, ATOM was trading at $26.93. The RSI saw a rising wedge growth but struggled to overturn its midline. a break below this pattern could lead to a near-term pullback. Further, the Supertrend continued to be in the red zone and favored the selling vigor. Near Protocol (NEAR) Since its ATH, NEAR lost more than 64% of its value and plunged toward its 11-week low on 24 February. It lost its crucial price points as the bears were in the driving seat. NEAR adhered to its trendline support while diving towards the $7.6-long-term support. As a result, it bounced back to witness three-week trendline support (white, dashed). Consequently, it saw a down-channel (white) that tested the $10.3-mark. At press time, the NEAR was trading at $10.128. The RSI saw a patterned growth but was yet to find a close above the equilibrium. Also, the AO corresponded with the increasing buying influence as it approached its zero-line.

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​​As shorting demand decreases, this is what Bitcoin has in store for investors The price action of Bitcoin hasn’t witnessed much stability in the last few weeks. The constant fluctuation in price has frustrated the market to an extent where a section of investors is actually wishing that the price falls further down. Shorts on the house! On-chain data has indicated that there has been quite an increase in investors looking to short the king coin in the last couple of days. That goes to say about the significant demand for short interest in Bitcoin. This shorting interest has risen by 329.66% in the last week alone. And, the consequences of the same have been visible on the king coin’s performance. Due to the recent shorting, the average funding rate has turned negative. The indicator in the chart below is revisiting the negative zone which is a good sign. Notably, around the first week of March, funding rates were worse. It’s also interesting to note that up until the first week of March, the crypto-margined Futures contracts were observing a downtrend. Unlike stablecoin margined Futures contracts, crypto-margined contracts are vulnerable to a price fall. In such a situation, not only do they lose their profits, but they also lose the value of the asset. Stablecoin margined contracts, on the other hand, are immune to losing value. These are only preferred by long traders. Shorting them leads to immediate liquidation since they can’t be hedged. As a result, crypto-margined contracts came down by 27% in 10 months. However, their recent increase might be indicative of the fact that investors are gaining confidence in Bitcoin once again. Otherwise, there is no reason investors would dare to pull off such a stunt in the midst of a bear market. Secondly, backing this confidence is the aforementioned negative funding rate. The dip in funding rate is actually a good sign for investors since they indicate buying signals. Multiple funding rate bottoms have been followed by a price rise in the past, although those dips have been much more significant. Regardless, if the indicator’s historical tests play out as per expectations, one can expect the price to rise in the coming few days.