Election Data Analyzer

Imagine a world of smaller precincts where we don't need machines and a group a citizens take the day off to vote and show pride in the Republic. This is what it might look like. Real data from one small rural county. The numbers are the registrants per precinct. Each wedge is a precinct. This ain't impossible folks....Come on fly over country, make it happen! You don't need anyone's permission.

7 Registrants 3 last names all Active. I guess it COULD be possible. Might want to knock on the door and check.

7 Registrants, 5 different last names. 6 registered on the same day in 2020 in FEB. So what happened? This clan decides to trek down to the Clerks office hand in hand for fun ON A WENDSDAY? Give me a break. Thanks ERIC.

Folks, If you need some assistance with this type of U/(D+R) analysis contact me directly. The beauty of it is that only reg date and party columns from the roll are needed.

ERIC County 4 of 4: 2019-2021

ERIC County 3 of 4: 2021 Through AUG

ERIC County 2 of 4: 2020

ERIC County 1 of 4: 2019

ERIC, thank you very much. This is a congressional district voter registration cumulative totals for No Party, REP and DEM. This is so unbelievable, I considered not even posting it. But, I went back to the source data again on the SoS web site and checked. Sure enough, this is what ERIC expects us to believe, I guess. I am not going to name the district but it is in a state that really loves their TUBAS. "Let's Go ERIC".

Folks, This is just confirming the analysis above, but, looking at it from a different perspective. What this is showing is that the counts of the ratios U/(D+R) resembles a controlled curve. The ratio that showed up MOST across 12 counties in a year was just slightly greater than 1 and showed up 31 times (for example). The X Axis is the ratio value, the Y axis is the COUNT of the number of times that DAILY ratio shows up over the year across 12 counties. This takes the time series perspective out of it. But wait, there is more....I had someone give me there data set for the same group of counties and I reproduced the same patterns in the above posts up with a different set of formulas (not EDA). I posted that for a peer review with a number of very smart people. As far as I am concerned, U/(D+R) looks like a controlled parameter. I welcome the assistance of any statistician(s) out there to poke holes in my theory.

Wrap Up: Row 1 means that there were 203 days when the number of UAF registrations was equivalent to (D+R). So let's say 50 D's and 25 R's register in these 12 counties, that means that exactly 75 Unaffiliated had to register that day. This represents 78% of the working days in a calendar year, ignoring holidays (the % would be HIGHER had I accounted for holidays). At the other end of the spectrum, there were 3 days when the ratio was = 9. So 9 Unaffiliated registered for every D+R. What does this mean? If people can reproduce this in other states, I think it is very significant. For it to be significant in this state, I would need statistical help to show if this is how people behave. Let's say all of that pans out and this is non-random behavior then we have a SERIOUS voter registration roll integrity problem. And, it would need to be non-partisan, the algorithim is dependent on D's as well.

This is the aggregate of all 12 Counties in one state (U/(D+R)) ratios for 2020. The total U/(D+R) for all is 1.04 for 2020. One other item pops out from this is the trendlines. They all modulate on the same period, different heights, but the same period. Do people behave this way? As with any technical analysis, it would great if folks could try and reproduce this in your county.

For clarification, if you want to try this at home, I am ignoring any other party except R, D and declared Unaffiliated. I am ignoring GRN,LIBR etc...those are not include in the ratios or the overall toals provided for the year.

County 12 of 12....U/(D+R)=1.015 for the entire yeat

County 11 of 12....U/(D+R)=0.994 for the entire year

Socks on tight? https://www.sos.la.gov/OurOffice/PublishedDocuments/FINAL%20VERSION-1.27.22%20ERIC%20PR.pdf

Two more counties folks, but this is no longer a cliff hanger, sorry (not so sorry).