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5 812
📊 USDJPY slows down ahead of BOJ meeting
Yesterday, USDJPY didn't break the 154.000 resistance level and finally went sideways, gaining 0.04% by the end of the day ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) meeting on Thursday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The BOJ will likely keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 31 October. With weaker exports and household spending in summer and recent political changes in Japan, the central bank is unlikely to change the interest rates. BOJ might only hike the rates if economic data strengthens and inflation stays above 2%. However, many in Tokyo think the regulator could still raise rates before the year ends. The market will be watching for clues about the BOJ monetary policy plans.
Meanwhile, economic data shows some resilience. Tuesday's jobs report showed some strength, which could lead to more spending. Output is still weaker, but there's hope that the weaker Japanese yen (JPY) and increased export orders will help boost growth. Auto production should recover, too. While recent data shows some pullback in inflation, with domestic and imported goods prices still rising, most people expect any dips to be temporary. Prices in Japan won't keep falling, given the rise in commodity, energy, and global goods prices.
USDJPY continues to trade sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. The most important event is tomorrow's BOJ rate decision at 3:00 a.m. Still, today's U.S. ADP Employment Change report at 12:15 p.m. UTC may influence the pair. A higher-than-expected figure should be taken as bullish for the USDJPY, while a lower-than-expected reading may push the pair into a downward correction.
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5 812
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5 812
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5 812
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5 812
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5 812
🚀 Gold is expected to reach new highs
Gold (XAU) continued to rise after a minor correction last week, and the pair may now increase towards historical highs. The price has approached the resistance level at $2,760.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Two factors support XAUUSD: the upcoming U.S. presidential election and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Uncertainty surrounding the election may further strengthen gold's role as a safe-haven asset during times of instability. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will also announce its interest rate decision next week. Markets anticipate potential positive economic data that may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy from the regulator. Investors believe that gold prices will continue to receive support and that the interest rate may decrease by 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction is approximately 98%.
As for the current geopolitical situation, the active phase of the Middle East conflict remains unchanged, and there is no certainty when the conflict will end. Israel continues to launch airstrikes in the eastern Bekaa Valley of Lebanon, resulting in casualties.
XAUUSD will likely continue rising today. If the pair breaks above the resistance level at $2,760, it may continue growing towards $2,788 and higher.
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5 812
📊 EURUSD faces headwinds from ECB rate cuts and potential Trump presidency
During a relatively quiet trading session on Monday, the euro (EUR) gained 0.18% against the U.S. dollar (USD).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is heading for its largest monthly rise in two and a half years against a basket of major currencies. This surge is fuelled by a combination of factors: a strong U.S. economy and expectations that Donald Trump will win a presidential election, which could result in major trade policy changes. Indeed, better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic indicators have bolstered the greenback lately. In addition, the market is increasingly pricing in a Republican victory this November, with Trump winning the presidency and his party controlling both chambers of Congress. Analysts warn that the euro could face additional pressure if the U.S. implements a global baseline tariff, potentially leading to retaliation from other countries. This could result in higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation, further weakening EURUSD. Moreover, increased bets on more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are also weighing on the pair.
Investors are turning their attention to the U.S. October employment report, which is expected to be impacted by the recent workers' strike at Boeing and Hurricane Milton. ‘The market will be looking quite closely for more signs into what's happening in December. (It's) going to be listening to what the reaction is to the stronger nonfarm payrolls numbers. It comes down to the Fed's reaction function’, said Peter Vassallo, FX portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management. At the same time, traders should note that the week leading up to the U.S. election could be very volatile, with the potential for uncorrelated and sharp market moves due to unexpected economic data and political events amid limited liquidity.
EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, USD-related pairs may experience some extra volatility due to the release of two macroeconomic reports: JOLTS and CB Consumer Confidence at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The data and their results may noticeably impact EURUSD. If the reports indicate the underlying strength in the U.S. economy, EURUSD will continue to fall, possibly below 1.07630. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results may provoke a rebound above 1.08400.
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5 812
🔽 AUDUSD continues to decline as the U.S. dollar rises
The Australian dollar (AUD) lost 0.32% and renewed local lows on Monday due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) is increasing against other major currencies. The bullish momentum is likely due to the positive U.S. economic data and the likelihood of Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election. Market analysts believe that if Trump becomes president, he will implement trade policy changes, which could increase the U.S. dollar's value. Additionally, market participants believe that the Republican Party will likely gain control of Congress, further supporting the bullish trend. Some analysts speculate that if the U.S. imposes tariffs on imported goods, it could weaken other currencies, such as the Australian dollar, and potentially lead to higher U.S. interest rates.
Although AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the beginning of October, the pair could receive some support from Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline inflation to have decreased towards 2.9% and core inflation measured by the trimmed mean to have increased by 0.7%, reaching an annual rate of 3.5%. Any uprise surprises in the CPI data may undermine the slim possibility of a rate reduction at the end of the year. At present, swaps indicate only a 34% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start reducing rates in December, with the first easing more likely to occur in April 2025. Additionally, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts have warned that their forecast for a December rate cut could be revised if the trimmed mean measure exceeds 0.7%.
AUDUSD continued to decline during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants will await the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Analysts expect confidence to increase from 98.7 towards 99.5. A higher-than-expected reading will put bearish pressure on AUDUSD, while a lower-than-expected figure may trigger an upward correction in the pair.
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5 812
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5 812
USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY rebounded from the support level of 152.760
👉General outlook
USDJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 152.760.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 152.990.
Set your stop loss at 152.630 below the previous low ($2.35 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 153.350 ($2.35 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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5 812
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