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📊 GBPUSD trades sideways ahead of crucial reports
GBPUSD moved near the upper part of the 1.33500–1.34300 range throughout most of Monday but decreased to its lower part after Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supstantial interest rate cuts.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell adopted a more aggressive stance in his speech, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is likely to maintain its current trajectory of 0.25% reductions in interest rates. ‘This is not a committee that is eager to swiftly reduce rates’, he stated. Market participants anticipate that the Fed will continue to lower rates at their next policy meeting scheduled for November. However, expectations for a 50-basis-point (bps) decrease dropped towards 38.2%, down from 53.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index, stated that while a 50-bps decrease cannot be ruled out entirely, it's contingent on the state of economic data. If economic indicators deteriorate, such a move may be justified. However, Powell strongly believes that market sentiment regarding future rate reductions is overly optimistic. Last month, the Fed initiated its easing cycle by implementing a larger-than-expected 50-bps reduction. Powell's address took place in the context of a particularly eventful week for U.S. economic data. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index will come out on Tuesday, the non-manufacturing report will be released on Thursday, and the crucial Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report will be published on Friday. If the non-manufacturing and NFP data surpass expectations, as Simpson suggested, the U.S. dollar may experience a ‘slight uptick’ before ultimately resuming its downward trend.
GBPUSD has been moving sideways during Asian and early European trading hours today. The market will be waiting for the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data today at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected numbers may trigger a downward correction in GBPUSD towards 1.33000. Conversely, weaker data may provide some support for the pair.
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5 789
🔽 The euro corrects downwards after Powell's speech
The euro (EUR) lost 0.26% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish speech. Powell's comments made investors less confident that the U.S. central bank would lower interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) again at its next meeting.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Powell stated that recent updates to data on economic growth, savings rates, and personal income had removed some ‘downside risks’ the Fed has been focused on. He indicated that he anticipates two more interest rate reductions, totalling 50 bps, this year as a baseline ‘if the economy performs as expected‘. Powell also warned that it might take several years for housing services inflation to decrease to a desirable level. Overall, the market treated his remarks as hawkish: the probability of a 50-bps rate cut in November dropped below 40%, down from 53% a day before, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher.
Meanwhile, preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office showed that the country's inflation in September eased to 1.8%, slightly more than the forecast. The data raised the chances of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the monetary policy meeting on 17 October. Overall, EURUSD has been struggling to close above 1.11920 for more than a month now, so bears may be finally taking the upper hand.
EURUSD was mostly flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's main events are the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 09:00 a.m. UTC, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, and the JOLTS Job Openings, both at 2:00 p.m. UTC. If eurozone inflation slows faster than expected, EURUSD may face more bearish pressure and will likely drop below 1.11000. However, only strong U.S. data can trigger the start of a new bearish trend in EURUSD. The pair may rebound above 1.11700 on weaker-than-expected U.S. reports.
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5 789
🔽 Gold drops by 0.89% after Powell’s hawkish comments
Gold (XAU) declined by 0.89% yesterday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave hawkish comments at the National Association for Business Economics.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Powell stated that the recent 0.5% rate cut shouldn't be viewed as a signal for equally aggressive moves in the future and that any additional reductions will depend on economic data. He also emphasised that the U.S. economy remains strong, and he expects a soft landing. Gold is heading for its largest quarterly gain since early 2016, fuelled by the Fed's 50-basis-point (bps) cut in September, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and China's additional monetary stimulus.
The probability of another 50-bps rate cut in November has dropped to 38%, down from over 50% last week. Thus, gold has been falling for the second day amid month-end flows favouring the U.S. dollar (USD) despite declining U.S. Treasury yields. XAUUSD dropped towards $2,635 but still closed September with a 5.4% gain—its best month since March. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged up 0.34% towards 100.8, weighing on gold. Geopolitical tensions remain high after Israel's strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in Lebanon, but analysts note that gold has struggled to find bullish momentum.
XAUUSD was increasing during Asian trading hours as Lebanese troops pulled back from the Israeli border late Monday amid rising tensions after Israel killed Hezbollah's leader, signalling a possible ground invasion. Today, investors should focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report due at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number will put downward pressure on XAUUSD, while lower-than-anticipated figures might suggest a bullish outlook for the pair. ‘Spot gold may rise towards a range of $2,654 to $2,667 per ounce, following its stabilisation around $2,626’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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5 789
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5 789
🔽 Gold slips 0.54% as investors take profits
Gold (XAU) fell by 0.54% on Friday as investors took profits after XAUUSD had reached a record high in the previous trading session.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The yellow metal continued setting new record highs, heading for its largest quarterly gain since early 2016. XAUUSD rose by about 1.6% for the week, supported by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) significant 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut and China's recent stimulus measures. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose by just 0.1% in August, below the 0.2% forecast, while the annual increase of 2.7% met expectations. Personal income and spending were also weaker than expected last month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 55.7% chance of a 50-bps cut in November and a 44.3% likelihood of a 25-bps cut. However, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated on Friday that the U.S. central bank should return to a gradual pace of rate cuts following the larger-than-usual half-point reduction in September.
A combination of factors should help limit deeper losses. Israel intensified its conflict with Iran's allies—the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon—launching aggressive airstrikes on Sunday, raising fears of a broader war in the Middle East. Investors are now worried that the conflict could escalate, potentially drawing in Iran and the U.S., Israel's key ally. Overall, the possibility of further interest rate reductions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and supports safe-haven demand for gold.
XAUUSD declined during the Asian trading hours. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech today at 5:55 p.m. UTC, which may affect expectations for a rate cut in November. If Powell signals a more dovish stance or hints at further rate cuts, it could weaken the U.S. dollar (USD) and push XAUUSD higher. Conversely, if he suggests a more cautious approach or less aggressive easing, it will put downward pressure on the pair. ‘Spot gold may retest support at $2,646 per ounce, a break below which could open the way towards the $2,619 to $2,633 range’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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5 789
USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY retested the support level of 141.660
👉Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 141.660.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 142.430.
Set your stop loss at 141.519 below the previous low ($6.40 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 143.340 ($6.40 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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5 789
Bitcoin remains stable at $65,000 amidst significant ETF inflows, reflecting growing investor interest amid Fed rate cut speculations and economic data impacts.
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5 789
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