Glassnode

🔄 Update: With the spot price surging to $97K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly: 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.4K --- Spot Price: $97K --- 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.8k 🟢True Market Mean: $81.1K 🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K 📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The Week On-Chain 2, 2026 Bitcoin has entered the new year with constructive momentum, posting two consecutive higher highs and extending price to $98k. This early-year advance, however, has carried price directly into a historically significant supply zone. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains locked in a low-volatility consolidation regime, with compressed ranges masking rising underlying fragility and unresolved directional conviction. - Options markets continue to price elevated downside convexity, signalling that tail-risk demand remains firm despite improving spot and derivatives positioning. - Volatility risk is being deferred rather than resolved, leaving the market vulnerable to abrupt repricing once liquidity conditions shift. - Institutional balance-sheet flows have stabilised following a full de-risking cycle, but accumulation remains uneven and event-driven rather than structurally persistent. -Spot market behaviour has turned constructive, with Binance and aggregate exchange flows transitioning into buy-dominant regimes while Coinbase sell pressure has materially eased. - The recent push into the $96K region was mechanically driven by a derivatives-led short squeeze on comparatively thin futures volume. - Long-term holder distribution has slowed, with cost-basis clusters and confidence bands forming a developing structural price floor. - Broader market direction remains increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions and derivatives positioning until persistent spot accumulation re-emerges. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Using the newly launched Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap, the recent $80K–$95K consolidation reflects a top-heavy cost-basis structure meeting renewed demand above $80K. Overhead supply from recent buyers has absorbed bounce attempts, anchoring price despite sustained buying interest following the drawdown. 📉http://glassno.de/4syBK9D

As Long-Term Holders (LTHs) transition from a high-spending regime in H2 2025 to lower spending in Jan 2026, their profit-taking volumes have cooled to levels typically observed in shallow bear phases. Such conditions are often associated with heightened uncertainty and tend to emerge during mid-bull market pauses or the early stages of deeper bear markets. 📉glassno.de/4pzkKgI

Long-term $BTC holder distribution has decelerated. Net outflows have rolled over from extreme levels, indicating that the market is progressively absorbing long-held supply and that a large portion of overhead supply may now be largely worked through. 📈https://glassno.de/3ZdVEct

#BTC consolidates after rejection from the upper-$90Ks as momentum cools and RSI slips back into neutral. Price remains range-bound across the mid-$80Ks to low-$90Ks, signalling a pause in directional conviction. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse https://glassno.de/4qp3VXk

🔄 Update: With the spot price trading around $89.9K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly: 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.9K --- Spot Price: $89.9K --- 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k 🟢True Market Mean: $81.0K 🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K 📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The Week On-Chain 1, 2026 Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside. Executive Summary - Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range. - A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume. - Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural. - US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement. -The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression. - Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range. - Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation. - Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking. - Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion. Read more in The Week On-Chain

The Week On-Chain 1, 2026 Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside. Executive Summary - Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range. - A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume. - Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural. - US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement. -The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression. - Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range. - Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation. - Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking. - Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion. Read more in The Week On-Chain

The 7D-SMA funding rate across major perpetual markets has improved modestly. Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours. Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive. 📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9

#BTC is stabilising within the $80K–$95K range as momentum recovers and sell pressure fades. Spot liquidity is thin, open interest is rebuilding cautiously, and options markets point to near-term volatility. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4jq5QIr

The Week On-Chain 50, 2025 Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained. - Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors. - Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support. - Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside. - Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end. Read more in The Week On-Chain

🔄 Update: With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly: 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k --- Spot Price: $86.4K --- 🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K 🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K 📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

#Bitcoin rejected at $94K and fell to $87K, weakening momentum as sell pressure rose and liquidity thinned. Derivatives and on-chain signals remain cautious, keeping the market vulnerable to further downside. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4qeiigE

#BTC DATs continue selective but steady BTC accumulation. Flows remain modest compared to late-2024 peaks, yet buying has broadened across miners, tech, and financial firms. Despite volatility, balance-sheet adoption remains a quiet structural tailwind. 📈https://glassno.de/48KEyre

$ETH Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after weeks of steady outflows. Modest inflows are starting to return, hinting at easing redemption pressure. A sustained move back into positive territory would signal improving demand into year-end. https://glassno.de/48HBugV

Unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have recently climbed to ~$350B, including ~$85B in BTC alone. With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead. 📊http://glassno.de/4oRkiua

Liquidity can be assessed through several measures, including the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (30D-SMA). For Solana, this ratio has traded below 1 since mid-November, meaning realized losses now exceed realized profits. This signals that liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets. 📉 glassno.de/3MoCPAt

The Week On-Chain 49, 2025 #Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean. - The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges. - Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts. - Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities. - With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists. Read more in The Week On-Chain