Glassnode

Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis. This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro. No more switching between platforms. 📉glassno.de/4d1zUc9

#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL

Demand Exhaustion Update The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k. Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts. Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events. 📉glassno.de/4bppmCo

A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon. Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention. Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇 📉http://glassno.de/3NFyKsm

Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks. In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity: • Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility • Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital) • Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets • Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer • DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity. Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function. 📑 Get the report here

Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending Bitcoin has cleared the $59k–$72k supply cluster and entered a thinly accumulated air gap up to $82k. Spot CVD is recovering, ETF inflows are rebounding, and perp funding remains negative — short covering is doing the work here. But currently, only 60% of the supply is in profit, where prior cycles' early bounces were exhausted multiple times before a structural shift. 📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1

#Bitcoin rebounded from the $66k higher low, grinding steadily higher through the week with strong daily closes that pushed price back toward $73k. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/3N9wOsa

A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets. Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves. 📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p

For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends. This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets. 📉glassno.de/472oSj4

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series) Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders. Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution. 📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater. Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%. Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery. 📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj

An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions. Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far. 📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr

The Week On-Chain 10, 2026 Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook. - Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established. - An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout. - The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime. - US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows. - Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges. - Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen. - Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging. - Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty. - Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term. Read more in The Week On-Chain

🔄 UPDATE: The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21. Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it. 📉 glassno.de/4rjg683

#Bitcoin pulled back from $74k but internals are stabilizing. Momentum, ETF inflows, and profitability metrics improved modestly, though capital flows and conviction remain weak. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/3OXCaqR

#BTC Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging. https://glassno.de/4sLx5Rh

📢 We’ve just launched Strategy Watch – Glassnode’s new monthly analysis of fund performance and institutional capital flows in digital assets. Download the inaugural edition: https://glassno.de/4u7QGfF Each issue combines aggregated manager survey data with on-chain and market intelligence to track: 🔹 Institutional capital flows 🔹 Strategy performance dispersion 🔹 Manager positioning and cash levels 🔹 SMA adoption and mandate shifts 🔹 Allocation activity If you allocate capital, manage crypto strategies, or shape investment mandates, this is your monthly read on where returns are concentrating and how institutions are positioning. 📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly: https://glassno.de/4l5HrII

Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025. Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize. 📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj

🔄UPDATE: The $70k ceiling holds! Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC. Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure. Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor. 📉glassno.de/4kHB925

#BTC stabilises as momentum and on-chain activity improve, while derivatives stay cautious. Selling pressure eases but capital flows remain fragile, signalling a tentative recovery backdrop. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4cW6KuS