Glassnode

Bottom Building in Progress Bitcoin remains in deep value after five months below key investor cost bases. LTH capitulation has peaked at $280M/day while ETF flows stay net negative. Derivatives lean cautiously long, but the options surface still prices downside. The bottoming process is advancing, not yet complete. Read the full Week On-Chain👇

First eventful order flow in weeks. Aggressive shorting into the 58k lows, twice. Unfortunately for bears, the retest coincided with spot sell pressure easing. All of this short OI has since been flushed. Notably, BTC remained strong today despite negative news of MSTR selling

Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 glassno.de/4eZQxV4

The options market is currently pricing in low future volatility for $BTC. While upside expectations remain unchanged we see less demand for short exposure. This could be the first sign of optimism returning to the options market. https://glassno.de/4wpfdgH

One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction. https://glassno.de/44Imuwb

Bottoms are formed by a shift in regime. The Vector framework is still signaling a Strong Risk-Off environment for Bitcoin. However, under the surface, metrics are beginning to pivot. A potential bottom may be forming. We'll alert you the second it confirms

Altcoin Cycle Signal update: the altcoin signal remains firmly in "altcoin season". This is strength beyond the denominator effect we described last month. Alts remain strong both on a relative and absolute basis. https://glassno.de/3RhFoXG Quoting @glassnode: The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work. https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr

As $BTC extends its drawdown, options markets are repricing risk, volatility, and the probabilities investors assign to the next major move. Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇 DVOL is trending higher as $BTC's sell-off extends, signalling a gradual repricing of future volatility. The move reflects growing uncertainty, though implied volatility remains well below the extremes seen during major market dislocations. https://glassno.de/4y3vzgE Despite Bitcoin's rebound from $58K, Skew remains firmly positive, indicating puts continue to command a premium over calls. Demand for downside protection persists, although the retreat from June's extremes suggests defensive positioning is beginning to ease. https://glassno.de/3SGoSAY With $BTC still trading in negative gamma territory, dealer hedging may continue to amplify price swings. Combined with elevated implied volatility and persistent demand for puts, the options market remains cautiously defensive. https://glassno.de/3QDXIKu

Accumulation Below the Surface $BTC has fallen below $60K as ETF outflows persist. Despite the weakness, long-term holders are absorbing supply, suggesting patient capital is returning. Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Following @Strategy’s June 29 announcement, its preferred shares rebounded strongly into month-end, with $STRC recovering around 13%. Bitcoin continued to show weakness, closing June below $60k. 📉 https://glassno.de/4xXbDfp

$BTC fell from around $63K to a local low near $58K before stabilising. Defensive positioning persists across spot, derivatives and ETFs, while on-chain activity suggests the market remains in consolidation. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Directional managers posted strong gains in May, led by Fundamental (+8.62%) and Event Driven (+11.43%) approaches. Stock selection drove the standout returns rather than market direction. Strategy Watch, produced with @CIG_Crypto, is live.

Analyzing Spot $BTC ETF Volumes Chart of the Week👇

BTC has returned to a key inflection point after sweeping both the February and June lows. Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface. Volatility Rebounds BTC IV is rising as price revisits the February lows. 1 week IV has jumped from 33% to 45%, with the rest of the curve also moving higher. Options markets are pricing greater uncertainty as downside volatility returns. https://glassno.de/4amt4vK Protection Demand Returns 25 Delta Skew is rising across the curve as traders pay a growing premium for puts over calls. 1W skew has climbed to 30%, while longer maturities have also moved higher. Demand for downside protection is building again. https://glassno.de/4vQ3at7 Calls Remain Out of Favor The Skew Index Ratio compares upside IV vs downside IV. Only the 6 month tenor remains above 1, while shorter dated maturities all trade below neutral, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection than upside exposure. https://glassno.de/3QLDTkn Volatility Risk Premium Resets 1M implied volatility has caught back up with realized volatility. After spending the past 2 weeks below realized moves, the spread is now at zero. Options markets are no longer underpricing recent volatility. https://glassno.de/4xQdFha Short Gamma Dominates Below Spot Following today's large options expiry, traders rebuilt downside exposure, forcing market makers to be short gamma from 60.5K down to 55K, where dealer hedging could amplify volatility if BTC moves lower. https://glassno.de/4f2myge Put Activity Dominates Put selling led taker flow over the past 7 days, accounting for 38.3% of premium traded, followed by put buying at 32.1%. Call activity remained muted. The options tape continues to revolve around downside exposure. https://glassno.de/4eIuge1 Wrap Up Implied volatility has rebounded. Protection demand is building. Calls remain out of favor. Volatility risk premium has normalized. Short gamma dominates below 60.5K. Put activity dominates the tape. Options positioning remains defensive near key support.

With price sliding below $60k, long-term holders are now carrying 5.6M BTC at a loss, the highest since the Covid crash in 2020. The resolution of overhang supply is extending, not concluding. 📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-supply-loss Quoting @CryptoVizArt: Long-term holders are now carrying 5.3M BTC at a loss, surpassing the post-FTX crash level and reaching the highest reading since the Covid crash. The scale of underwater LTH supply suggests the resolution process is still in progress. 📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-supply-loss https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2062531969661980975

With price contracting to $1.04, the 90D-SMA has declined further to 0.33, the lowest reading since August 2022. Capitulation pressure continues to deepen. Each successive low in this ratio reflects a growing share of participants exiting at a loss, with profit-taking activity increasingly unable to offset it. 📉 http://glassno.de/xrp-rplr Quoting @glassnode: The 90D-SMA of XRP's Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38. For every dollar of loss being realized in the market, only 38 cents of profit is being taken. At the 2025 peak, this ratio reached 50, meaning profit-takers were overwhelming loss-sellers by a factor of 50x. That dynamic has fully inverted. A ratio this deep below 1 reflects a market where the majority of participants who are moving coins are doing so at a loss, a hallmark of intense capitulation. 📉 http://glassno.de/xrp-rplr

Waiting for Buyers $BTC has broken below $60K as loss realization, ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning continue to weigh on sentiment. Despite some selective accumulation, broad demand remains absent. Read the full Week On-Chain👇