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Publicaciones del Canal
https://www.theblock.co/post/403160/michael-saylors-strategy-sells-bitcoin
In my opinion, the current BTC price dump isn't being caused by external factors on a macro scale or geopolitical tensions.
Instead, it's due to an internal factor that I believe has become a structural risk regarding the BTC holdings of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor's company.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy was spotted selling 32 BTC, worth around $2.5 million. In terms of volume, this is insignificant and actually quite small. However, the real concern, in my opinion, is more about the ethics behind MSTR's mechanism.
We know that MSTR is a DAT (Digital Asset Trust) with the sole purpose of accumulating BTC. They raise funds by issuing preferred shares, like STRC, in order to buy BTC.
So the question is: why does MSTR need to sell the BTC they hold?
-> A while ago, we know Michael Saylor also hinted that they would be selling BTC.
-> The purpose of that BTC sale is to repay the dividend yield for STRC.
-> When a company sells BTC to finance a dividend yield, it clearly introduces the risk of a pyramid scheme within this mechanism.
This is exactly what is currently causing FUD in the market.
Saylor claimed this was to "inoculate" the market—selling a little bit of BTC now to buy back even more later.
So, unless we see large-scale buying from MSTR happen again, I think BTC will continue to drop.
| 2 |  Zooming out to the daily time frame...
Yesterday, I expected BTC to have at least a counter-rally from the $70k area, which is a strong support zone.
That's why I also closed 50% of my short positions for BTC and ETH yesterday.
However, the price is now showing significant weakness, and there are no bids at that $70k area.
On the daily time frame, we can also see that the flag pattern from the bearish flag on a higher perspective has finally broken down.
Now, with the breakdown of the support trendline from this flag pattern, there is at least an 80% probability that the price will continue to weaken.
There might be a bounce, but it's not worth taking action on long positions when the market is this bearish.
What we can do is follow the trend, which is bearish. Therefore, wait to open a short position when there is a bounce.
Personally, I am still holding yesterday's short position with a stop-loss at BEP (break-even point). I will ride this position down to a potential target of $60k. | 61 |
| 3 |  Source : Ryan Detrick
On the macro factor, there is also a potential for the S&P 500 to undergo a correction this June.
Based on historical statistics, the S&P 500 has never peaked in the month of June (data from 1950 to 2025).
Considering that the S&P 500 is already extended this far amidst a macro backdrop that is still facing high levels of uncertainty, there is potential for the equity market to begin correcting.
If the equity market undergoes a correction, there is a potential that BTC will also be impacted. | 51 |
| 4 |  Lastly, the BTC ETF cumulative flow is also currently declining, following a recorded weekly net outflow of -$1.42 billion last week.
More proof that institutions and smart money are starting to dump bags right now.
Need to be cautious. | 41 |
| 5 |  In the short term, BTC has the potential to tap the $70k area very soon, as seen from the momentum which is currently starting to show weakness.
My guess is there will be a potential bounce after tagging $70k, heading toward the $75k - $76k area, followed by a continuation lower.
No bids, no fundamental backup, and the price action is also weakening. | 41 |
| 6 |  On the other hand, we also see that STRC is still depegged below $100, which is its par value.
Most recently, Saylor revealed that the dividend yield for STRC remains unchanged. There is no increase, which means it will be increasingly difficult for STRC to return to its par value area in the near future.
Watch this metric closely.
As long as it remains depegged below par value, MSTR cannot conduct ATM (At-The-Market) issuances, meaning we have lost one of the largest buyers for the time being. | 43 |
| 7 |  Now we're back to BTC again..
The monthly candlestick closed bearish. This indicates that BTC's weakness will likely continue into this June.
Based on the monthly chart, we see potential for further downward price momentum, with a swing trajectory toward the unfinished auction areas at $60k and $49k.
This is the chart I will be using as guidance for the next 1–2 months. | 37 |
| 8 | In my opinion, the BTC drop is not over yet and will continue. We have only just seen a small portion of smart money and institutions selling off. However, the closer we get to the SpaceX IPO deadline, the greater the selling pressure will be on risk-on assets, including BTC. There might be a bounce in the short term. But that will only be a short-term rally and will serve as an opportunity for us to dump positions and gain exposure in short positions. | 49 |
| 9 |  The current selling pressure on BTC is most likely due to liquidity absorption, where investors planning to participate in the SpaceX pre-IPO on June 12th need to raise a large amount of cash.
Where is the cash to buy into the SpaceX pre-IPO coming from?
Naturally, this will come from selling off assets they already own. One of which is BTC.
FYI, SpaceX is raising $75 billion at a $2 trillion valuation. This is the largest IPO in history.
A similar thing happened during previous massive IPOs like GM, Alibaba, Meta, and Visa.
Data from Goldman Sachs also notes a drastic decline in US equity mutual fund cash balances comparing before and after the IPOs of those companies. | 45 |
| 10 |  +1If you've noticed since the beginning of this week, we are seeing a trend where ETFs have started dumping their bags in BTC.
Yesterday, I mentioned that 29 million IBIT shares were sold when the BTC price spiked to $78k.
Then, all of a sudden, yesterday we saw that ETFs recorded their largest outflow since May 13th. The outflow was clocked at $733 million.
Also, if we look at the Coinbase premium, it is currently in negative territory, approaching the dump levels we saw back in February.
This indicates that big players and institutions are starting to dump their positions.
The question now is, why? | 33 |
| 11 |  Based on the current structure of BTC, we can see that the $75k area has been breached for now.
With the breach under $75k and yesterday's daily close already below that area, we now have confirmation of a market structure shift.
This shows a change from the trend since last March, signaling a potential major trend continuation on the weekly time frame right now (Lower High and Lower Low).
So, with the current price action showing significant weakness, sentiment will turn bearish again.
Any bounce from the current level, I feel, will be the right moment to dump bags (exit positions) or open a short position. | 23 |
| 12 |  As of the current position, the BTC price is trending under the bull market support band.
If the upcoming weekly candlestick closes under this level, there is a high potential that the current condition will replicate what happened back in 2022, which means there is a potential for a further drop.
We must remain vigilant. I feel that the next drop occurring in BTC and risk-on assets will be related to the SpaceX IPO.
I will explain it later. | 27 |
| 13 |  Furthermore, if we combine this with the current BTC apparent demand, we can see that apparent demand has dropped to its lowest point in 2026, signaling less interest from market participants.
This is a clearly bearish signal from an on-chain analysis perspective.
However, it is important to note that changes in macro or geopolitical dynamics can easily shift the current on-chain analysis composition.
Just wanted to provide proper analysis for the time being. | 45 |
| 14 |  +1Bitcoin on-chain analysis still indicates that selling pressure has not yet subsided.
The fact is that BTC inflows to Binance over the last 10 days remain positive, with an average netflow currently reaching 1,190 BTC per day.
It is also observed that exchange reserves have increased over the past few days, signaling that current selling pressure is quite high. | 39 |
| 15 | Here is a brief summary of what happened over the weekend.
-> Trump stated that the US-Iran deal negotiations have shown positive progress, with a potential deal on the horizon.
-> Most recently, Iran stated that while the framework for the deal is close, it is still far from an actual signed agreement.
-> Because crypto is the only asset class open over the weekend, we saw some reactions across BTC and the broader crypto sector. Cultively from Friday night through Sunday, total leveraged positions saw over $1.5 billion in liquidations across all of crypto.
-> During today's Asia session, we saw both crypto and equity markets rally as the market anticipates a peace deal in the near future.
-> USOIL (WTI) price dropped back below $100 on this news, currently hovering around $92.
Conclusion:
As I mentioned, no one knows for sure how the US-Iran conflict will unfold. Once again, Trump released this statement over the weekend, and we could see some potential flip-flopping from him to manipulate oil and energy prices. This situation has the Trump administration a bit cornered right now; the longer energy prices stay at current levels, the more it will pressure inflation within the US economy. | 29 |
| 16 |  +1Bitcoin briefly pushed under $75k over the weekend. However, as news of a potential Iran-US deal broke, we saw the price reclaim back above the key level of $76k.
Price action is still highly choppy and, as I mentioned yesterday, continues to be driven by headline news.
The daily time frame perspective shows that the price remains within the same consolidation range it has been in for the last 108 days.
What we need to watch out for is that, as of the current position, the price is still trending below the median line of the parallel channel flag pattern.
If the price fails to reclaim above $78k, there is a potential that it will continue its weakness to retest the lower line area of the flag pattern on the daily time frame. | 35 |
| 17 |  One of the reasons why I currently feel the BTC rally is still fragile is the STH (Short-Term Holder) cost basis.
Currently, the STH cost basis is around $78k.
And every time the price approaches that area, we see selling pressure that causes the price to get rejected from that level.
What does this mean?
Short-Term Holders who are currently holding BTC tend to sell as soon as they reach their break-even point.
For us to confirm a bull market, I think what needs to happen is a convincing breakout above the STH cost basis.
As long as the price is still retesting this area, it will test the conviction of STHs—and as we've seen, STHs are still selling | 45 |
| 18 |  The stablecoin dominance fractal is repeating the exact same pattern from 2022.
I am using the bull market support band, which is a combination of the 21 EMA and 21 SMA on the weekly time frame.
Based on price action, stablecoin dominance broke out from resistance and retested the bull market support band as dynamic support.
In March 2022, the exact same thing happened, and then stablecoin dominance spiked higher.
In 2022, after stablecoin dominance retested support at the bull market support band, BTC dropped by -66%. | 47 |
| 19 | The privacy sector has also seen a fairly significant run over the past 2 weeks.
Based on history, a privacy sector rally always signals the end of an uptrend.
Please be cautious.
For the rest of the month:
1. No bids from MSTR because STRC depegged.
2. Uncertainty in geopolitical tensions.
3. Rising inflation.
4. US long-term yields are still above 5% (US30Y).
There are no setups showing any bullish signs. | 38 |
| 20 | NVDA beat earnings, but the price is actually trending flat.
-> The market may have already priced in NVDA beating the market at this point.
BTC reclaimed above $77k, but the price action still looks choppy with very low volume.
-> Not worth trading at all.
Currently, the narrative is on perp DEXs, following Hyperliquid's integration with Coinbase and the SpaceX pre-IPO.
-> Also watch RWA (Real World Assets) as an alternative for the "tokenization" narrative. | 31 |
