JoesCrypt

Expect more bodies to float to the trading floor surface in the coming weeks https://x.com/joemccann/status/2116390120840643039

A cool $110 billion volatility trap @Nomura estimates that a 2% SPX decline could trigger approximately $110 billion in mechanical selling across dealers, leveraged ETFs and volatility-control strategies. At a 3% decline, that figure rises to almost $178 billion. With systematic equity exposure already near the 95th percentile, the market is increasingly vulnerable to a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Selling creates volatility. Volatility creates more selling. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2116332404709433491

S&P 500 averages 1.9% in November. UBS flags squeeze risk November is the S&P 500's strongest month, with a 1.9% average gain since 1950. @UBS S&T's Justinus Steinhorst flags acute short squeeze risk: gross shorts are rising even as net exposure stays low. The longer-term case draws on post-midterm history. UBS cites a 13.8% average 6M S&P 500 return with a 100% historical hit rate, and a 7.7% average 3M return with an 89% historical hit rate. Those are historical outcomes. They support UBS's longer-term positioning case without guaranteeing the next result. The tactical view is in commodities. UBS points to November oil weakness (-2.9% on average) versus strength in copper (+1.7%) and silver (+1.1%). Amid Iran tensions, the desk sees an opportunity to shift Energy equity exposure into Metals & Mining (UBXXMETL). https://x.com/joemccann/status/2116277613589361102

AI HY spreads were 400bps over Treasuries, significantly wider than non-AI BB/B since mid-2025. @GoldmanSachs expects 2027 to be an active AI issuance year across currencies and asset classes. That expected supply adds risk for AI-linked HY credits already under pressure. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115871789159162282

The next China shock may not stay in China. China's domestic economy is struggling, but its export machine is running at full speed. @BankofAmerica's Hartnett highlights Chinese exports surging 36% year-on-year, with high-tech exports up a staggering 63%. The problem is that this industrial strength is increasingly disconnected from domestic demand. China is relying on foreign buyers to absorb its production, raising the risk of exporting deflation and squeezing corporate earnings globally. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115856119008800945

The $QQQ short squeeze setup $QQQ short interest has climbed to its highest level since 2023, according to JPM. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115855449463595343

The token bull market continues. Total token spending rose 23.0% compared with the same week last month. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115802080082612557

Inflation breadth stays above its 2017-2019 average Inflation is still spread across more PCE components than the 2017-2019 average. UBS's chart tracks the share with 6m annual inflation above 3%. That share remains elevated, even after retreating from its peak. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115798808713986362

FOMC flipped from hikes to hold in six weeks — @scotiabank The Fed reversed course fast. As recently as September 16 the committee was raising rates. By October 28 it shifted to maintaining the target. That's a sharp turn, and it didn't come without friction: dissenters Cook and Hammack prefer hikes, per Scotiabank's read of the decision. That internal split raises the odds of more volatility around future meetings. A committee that just reversed direction and still has vocal hawks isn't one sending a clean signal. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115783159489130542

CTAs are short the long end almost everywhere The govvie-futures matrix shows CTA signals are "overwhelmingly Short across most tenors, nearly all Americas and EMEA instruments flash Short," with the lone Long sitting on China 10y. When the systematic crowd is this one-sided short bonds, the pain trade is a rally nobody is positioned for. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115781525803499950

All time low "Available cash on the NYSE as a % of market cap is at its lowest level in history." https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115773443941749107

Send it https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115513155686412537

Nasdaq futures open interest jumps $10.6bn as earnings risk builds @GoldmanSachs identifies a $9.5bn purchase in Nasdaq non-dealer net positioning, a new high. With non-dealer positioning elevated in the CFTC data for Oct 20, @GoldmanSachs sees significant futures selling risk if Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet results disappoint. Funding adds another concern. @GoldmanSachs points to volatile Nasdaq funding costs above those of the S&P, with sector-specific liquidity risk for tech-heavy portfolios. $AMZN $META $GOOGL https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115280713335640354

AI token costs fall to ~50% of May peak LLM token costs fell to ~50% of their May peak, according to @Nordea. Nordea cites a Stanford study that found smaller models match or outrun larger ones on mainstream tasks. Smaller language models use 3% of the energy of large models, while 49% of business leaders are scaling back AI. The longer-term risk is a mismatch between demand and capacity. Nordea warns that a shift toward local AI and smaller models could leave data centres with overcapacity against 5-year project timelines. Once again, Wall Street is long the left tail of compute, not long the right tail like technologists are. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115277246818828436

AI rebounds, 286 names fall AI is rebounding. Breadth isn't keeping up. @GoldmanSachs' US equities desk put NDX at +1.40%, reclaiming its 100DMA, in its 27 Oct 2026 midday update. SPX ex AI was down 50bps, with 286 names down. @GoldmanSachs said "AI financing concern" eased after $META and $AVGO funding success. The rebound from oversold conditions was strongest in the AI complex: neoclouds +585bps, optical +5% and inference chips +466bps. Momentum was +272bps and +8% in 3 sessions after a ~20% drawdown. @GoldmanSachs described flows as stable, with hedge funds favoring tech/financials over consumer/macro. That's a tactical recovery. The desk flagged weaker breadth as a potential source of risk-off pressure. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115235827831959764

Yesterday’s selloff was nothing short of historic Positioning in $USDBRL longs according to the @UBS FX Flow Monitor highlights a sharp reduction by HFs yesterday at a -5σ pace. That's the largest daily loss for $USDBRL over the past ten years https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115165407032258979

$GOOGL bouncing right where it is supposed to. Earnings tomorrow https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115164493995200610

The Santa rally starts here? https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115093862410854892

Meta $25bn common-stock offering about 5x subscribed $META's expanded $25bn common-stock offering drew roughly five times demand for available shares. The company is targeting up to $98bn to fund AI spending. More than half of the allotment went to long-term investors and existing shareholders; the top 15 subscribers received about 70% of the offering. The deal priced at $625 per share, a 2.7% discount to the close the Friday before the announcement. The equity sale is part of a broader financing package that includes $12.5bn of mandatory convertible preferred and expected at‑market share placements; if the full $98bn is raised it would be among the largest equity financings on record. https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115091374991426021

Worst in 100 years The 10-year rolling return on US Treasuries is now -1%, below the lows of December 1959 and September 1981, the latter of which marked the start of the greatest bond bull market in history: https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114832263582249459