CRYPTOHELL

$XRP hasn't shown its performance yet, but it's still consolidating close to its major trend support level. Accumulating XRP now is okay, the CBDC narrative by the end of the year might boost the price of many cross-border payment tokens like XRP. — XRP sama sekali belum pamer performanya, tapi masih terus terkonsolidasi dekat dari level support major trend-nya. Akumulasi XRP sekarang juga boleh, narasi CBDC di akhir tahun kemungkinannya akan mendongkrak harga banyak token cross-border payment seperti XRP.

The white-colored metric is Stock-to-flow, and twice already when the price touched or stayed at that level, corrections happened. So, pay attention to the support area as our buying and hodling zone. — Metric berwarna putih adalah Stock-to-flow, sudah 2 kali disaat harga menyentuh atau berada di level tersebut patut terjadi koreksi. Maka perhatikan area support sebagai area beli dan menabung kita.

Personally, I'm still focused on the EMA50 daily timeframe as the support level, hoping there's liquidity there. But it seems like there's not much action around $65k - $64k. — Gua pribadi masih fokus pada EMA50 daily timeframe sebagai level support, gua harap ada likuiditas disana. Tapi keliatannya sih sepi pengunjung di harga $65k - $64k

Hey, check this out, the US government is selling a bunch of Bitcoin from the Silk Road case again. So, friends, you should pay attention to the support ratios 1.13 - 1.272; 1.414 - 1.618 in the price range of $59,200 - $53,350. — Tolong diperhatikan, pemerintah AS lagi banyak jual Bitcoin dari kasus Silk Road. Jadi temen-temen patut perhatikan support rasio 1.13 - 1.272 ; 1.414 - 1.618 pada kisaran harga $59.200 - $53.350

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111 For your references

Basically, theories about Bitcoin reaching $100,000 or more sooner or later have been widely introduced, one of them being Plan B, which was trending with its Stock-to-Flow model last year in 2021. — Pada dasarnya teori-teori Bitcoin cepat atau lambat bisa menyentuh $100.00 atau lebih itu banyak diperkenalkan, salah satunya Plan B yang trending dengan Stock-to-flow nya pada tahun 2021 kemarin.

Using this chart, two conclusions (or perhaps, assumptions) are made. 1. The price will reach $100,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2021 and no later than 2028. After 2028, the price will never drop below $100,000. 2. The price will reach $1,000,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. After 2037, the price will never drop below $1,000,000. As always, the logic of this chart and the assumptions derived from it depend on bitcoin’s previous performance being indicative of the future. That is always the case when relying on any sort of linear regression. However, unanticipated events may drastically alter that behavior in the future, so one should not take the price predictions made by this chart as gospel.

This chart is derived by taking two bands of bitcoin prices. - A resistance price above the current price - A support price below the current price These resistance and support bands were derived by taking a linear regression of the historical bitcoin price to derive a “power law”. This power law is just a straight line to represent the correlation between bitcoin’s price and time. This line is then perfectly copied (including its slope) twice. With these two new lines, - One is lowered such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or greater than the prices hitting that line - the support line. - One is raised such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or less than the prices hitting that line - the resistance line.

Santostasi argues that Bitcoin's price behavior aligns more closely with this kind of distribution due to several factors: 1. Network Effects: Bitcoin's value is influenced by its network effects, meaning that as more people adopt and use Bitcoin, its value tends to increase. This results in occasional exponential price surges followed by periods of consolidation. 2. Speculative Nature: Bitcoin, being a relatively new asset class, is subject to high levels of speculation. Speculative trading can amplify both upward and downward price movements, leading to the formation of bubbles and subsequent corrections. 3. Limited Supply: Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it inherently deflationary. The scarcity of Bitcoin contributes to its value proposition, as demand increases while supply remains fixed. 4. Psychological Factors: Human psychology plays a significant role in financial markets, including Bitcoin. FOMO (fear of missing out) and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) can drive investors to buy or sell impulsively, causing extreme price swings. By understanding Bitcoin's price dynamics through the lens of power-law distributions, Santostasi suggests that investors can better anticipate and navigate the market's volatility. However, it's essential to note that while the Power Law Theory offers insights into Bitcoin's behavior, predicting future price movements remains inherently challenging due to the multitude of factors influencing the market.

Have you heard about Bitcoin Power Law theory ? The Bitcoin Power Law Theory, proposed by Giovanni Santostasi, is an attempt to model and predict the long-term price behavior of Bitcoin using principles from power-law distributions. Santostasi, a physicist by training, applies concepts from statistical mechanics to understand complex systems like financial markets, particularly focusing on Bitcoin. In essence, the Power Law Theory suggests that the price movements of Bitcoin follow a power-law distribution rather than a normal distribution. A power-law distribution is characterized by a few large events (extreme price movements) and many small events (minor price fluctuations), with no clear scale or typical size.

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That's why the open interest for futures contracts is positive, with the volume increasing until April 7th. — Makanya open interest untuk pembukaan kontrak berjangka positif dengan naiknya juga volume sampai tanggal 7 april kemarin.

If we look at the derivative metrics, I might guess that many exchanges are currently using Bitcoin as liquidity for derivative products. That's why crypto exchanges are aggressively promoting leverage trading, especially margin trading. Because traders don't need to buy and hold coins, they just need to make the right call on the direction and they'll profit. That's why the derivative metric seems more positive compared to the spot market metric. — Kalo kita lihat dari metric derivative ini, gua mungkin menduga kalo bursa pun saat ini banyak menjadikan Bitcoin sebagai likuiditas untuk produk derivative. Makanya bursa kripto gencar banget mempromosikan leverage trading, apalagi margin trading. Karena trader ga perlu beli dan nyimpen koin, cuma call salah satu arah aja orang udah dapet profit. Makanya, metric derivative ini keliatan lebih positif dibanding metric spot market.

Check this out, since January 2024, the purchasing power of investors towards Bitcoin has drastically decreased. The stablecoin exchange reserve metrics could be our gauge for investor purchasing power towards Bitcoin too. If the metrics go up, it means the purchasing power is strong; if it goes down, then the purchasing power is weak. In the past month, the metrics have been sideways, which makes sense since the price is pretty high. So maybe a lot of people are in a wait-and-see mode. — Liat deh, mulai Januari 2024 pun daya beli investor terhadap Bitcoin pun menurun sangat drastis. Metrics stablecoin exchange reserve ini bisa jadi tolak ukur kita terhadap daya beli investor terhadap Bitcoin juga, jika metrics naik maka daya belinya kuat, jika menurun maka daya belinya pun lemah. Sebulan belakangan pun metrics sideways, ya wajar sih harganya juga cukup tinggi. Jadi mungkin banyak yang wait & see.

Pasokan Bitcoin di Spot Market Exchange masih kian menurun yang menandakan sirkulasi pasokan Bitcoin di Spot Market banyak keluar dari sirkulasi bursa kripto. Apa ini pertanda positif ? Bisa jadi iya, bisa juga engga. Positifnya, pasokan Bitcoin kurang lebih banyak yang dormant atau disimpan di Cold Wallet / Hard Wallet untuk tidak diperdagangkan. Atau mungkin di simpan di custodian wallet lalu dijadikan collateral asset oleh beberapa investor. Ini menurut gua anomali, kenapa ? karena sudah berjalan 6 tahun dari 2019 sampai sekarang metrics Exchange Reserve terus menerus downtrend dan gak tampak ada transaksi besar yang signifikan. Apa ini sehat ? Gua cuma bisa bilang gatau, cuma aneh aja kenapa ko trendnya masih terus downtrend. Apakah orang positif holding ? atau memang Bitcoin lagi di manipulasi ?

The supply of Bitcoin on Spot Market Exchanges keeps decreasing, indicating that the circulation of Bitcoin supply on the Spot Market is mostly leaving the crypto exchange circulation. Is this a positive sign? It could be, or it might not be. On the positive side, there's a lot of Bitcoin supply that's dormant or stored in Cold Wallets / Hard Wallets, not being traded. Or maybe it's stored in custodian wallets and used as collateral assets by some investors. This seems anomalous to me. Why? Because for the past 6 years from 2019 until now, the Exchange Reserve metrics have been continuously downtrending, and there haven't been any significant large transactions. Is this healthy? I can only say I don't know, it's just strange that the trend keeps going downwards. Are people positive about holding? Or is Bitcoin being manipulated?

Sementara ini gua pribadi masih expecting harga naik ke $76.870 - $81.849 pada rasio 1.236 - 1.618. Apakah harga Bitcoin akan terkoreksi atau breakout dari rasio 1.9 pitchfork ? Gak ada yang tahu pasar akan bergerak bagaimana, tapi yang pasti ada dua probabilitas. 1. Jika candle tertolak pada kisaran harga $76.870 - $81.849 pada rasio 1.236 - 1.618 dengan beberapa konfirmasi teknikal dan onchain. Maka potensi koreksi -30 sampai dengan -40% akan terjadi pada bulan pertengahan tahun. Gua masih fokus di bulan September 2024 karena ada pemilu presiden amerika. 2. atau jika candle dapat breakout melewati rasio 1.9 pitchfork dan rasio 1.618 pada harga $81.849 dengan beberapa konfirmasi teknikal dan data onchain. Maka potensi harga bergerak naik ke $102.076 per Bitcoin.

For now, personally, I'm still expecting the price to rise to $76,870 - $81,849 at the 1.236 - 1.618 ratio. Will the Bitcoin price correct or break out from the 1.9 pitchfork ratio? Nobody knows how the market will move, but there are two probabilities. 1. If the candle gets rejected around the $76,870 - $81,849 range at the 1.236 - 1.618 ratio with some technical and on-chain confirmations, then there's a potential correction of -30% to -40% happening around mid-year. I'm keeping an eye on September 2024 because of the U.S. presidential election. 2. Or, if the candle manages to break out past the 1.9 pitchfork ratio and the 1.618 ratio at $81,849 with some technical and on-chain confirmations, then there's potential for the price to move up to $102,076 per Bitcoin.