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Disclaimer: I am a SEBI Registered Research Analyst (RA: INH000026488). All stocks, market updates, and investment-related information shared in this channel are strictly for educational and informational purposes only.
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In every video, I clearly stated that before the next bull run begins, the market would first crash to bring valuations back to normal — and that is exactly what is happening now. This appears to be the final stage of the bear market correction.
Those who regularly watch our YouTube videos can easily understand how the market behaves during a bear phase, which is primarily driven by valuations and earnings.
The Nifty 50 had not corrected for the past 10 months, largely due to support from domestic institutional investors (DIIs). Now, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are using their selling power to bring the index down so that valuations can return to more reasonable levels and prepare the market for the next bull run.
The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has already undergone a significant correction. However, since the Nifty 50 had not corrected properly earlier, it is still putting some pressure on the small-cap index — though the impact is much smaller compared to large-cap stocks.
I expect a sharp rally in small-cap stocks once this final stage of correction is complete.
Currently, the Nifty 50 P/E ratio has fallen to around 20.7. I believe it may drop below 20 to reach more attractive valuation levels.
The stock market ultimately moves based on valuations and earnings, not on geopolitical events or political developments.
In fact, the war situation has simply provided an opportunity for valuations to normalize — otherwise, the bear phase might have lasted much longer.
FIIs are selling aggressively to bring the Nifty 50 to more reasonable valuation levels. This is actually positive for the market. I expect the Nifty 50 to fall to around 23,000 ± 500, where valuations could become more attractive.
The Smallcap 250 index is already available at attractive valuations, and I expect a sharp rally in small-cap stocks once the correction in the Nifty 50 is over. This is the right time to gradually accumulate quality small-cap stocks. I also expect a strong move in small caps after the Q4 earnings season.
March 2026 could be the month of correction to bring market valuations back to normal levels. If the Nifty 50 recovers from current levels without correcting, it will become difficult for valuations to return to reasonable levels. In that sense, FIIs are doing the right thing by selling aggressively and allowing the market to correct.
Over the last 10 months, DIIs kept the Nifty 50 near all-time highs and did not allow a natural correction. Because of this, the market entered a long bear phase. Now, FIIs are selling aggressively during the final stage of the bear market, and the current war-related uncertainty is helping bring valuations to reasonable levels.
Many people panic when the market falls, but they fail to understand that corrections are necessary. If the market does not fall and valuations remain high, the bear market can last much longer without generating returns. In fact, we have already seen a bear and sideways market for almost a year.
Do we want to see the same boring market continue in 2026?
So always think positively—sometimes a market correction is necessary to create the foundation for the next bull run. In that sense, a healthy fall in the market can actually be a good thing.
" Atlanta electric " Hidden new stock from high voltage Transformer has given breakout..🚀
The power transmission sector stocks did not fall during the current market crash, which shows strong resilience in this sector. This is an important indicator that the sector could participate in the next bull run.
US AI data center–related stocks that I shared last time —
"Sterlite Technologies " and
" Aeroflex Industries "
are outperforming even in a weak market.🚀
" Atlanta electric "The new stock has taken support and looks ready for the next move.”🚀
As I said, March 2026 could be the month when the market forms its bottom. One year ago, I had clearly mentioned that our bear market might end between January and March 2026. Now we are in the last stage of the bear market, and in most bear markets the final stage usually includes a sharp correction or crash to bring valuations to attractive levels.
This fall is actually healthy for the market because the Nifty 50 index had not corrected properly over the last 10 months and was being kept near its all-time high. In a bear market there is a simple rule: without correction, there cannot be a new bull run. The bear phase generally continues until the market experiences a strong correction that resets valuations.
Going forward, we may see more downside in large-cap stocks, while small-cap stocks may fall less, because the small-cap index has already undergone a meaningful correction whereas Nifty 50 had not corrected adequately earlier.
At present, the Nifty 50 PE ratio is around 20.9, and a level below 20 could provide a strong valuation-based support for the index.
In many cases, events like wars create short-term panic but also provide an opportunity for valuations to become attractive. Otherwise, the market could remain in a boring and prolonged bear phase. I expect that after the Q4 earnings season, the market could start a strong rally from these lower levels.
As I have been saying, FIIs will sell aggressively to pull the Nifty 50 down, and that is exactly what is happening now. If FIIs do not bring the Nifty 50 down at this stage, then DIIs may again push the index towards its all-time high levels. If that happens, market valuations will remain expensive and we may not see the next bull run anytime soon.
Investors should try to understand the market in terms of valuations, rather than focusing only on factors like Trump or geopolitical wars. In many cases, such events actually provide an opportunity for the market to correct and bring valuations back to reasonable levels. Otherwise, the market would remain near all-time highs where investors get no returns.
Today, the Nifty 50 is down around 1.6%, while the Smallcap 250 index is down only about 0.3%. This clearly indicates that the Nifty 50 is still relatively overvalued, whereas the Smallcap 250 index is already available at attractive valuations. That is why we are not seeing a major fall in small-cap stocks, while large-cap stocks are witnessing sharper corrections.
As I have mentioned earlier, Nifty 50 may need to correct towards the 23,000 ± 500 level. FIIs are the only participants with enough capital to pull the index down to such levels. DIIs, on the other hand, have been continuously buying in the market.
I have repeatedly said in my YouTube videos that towards the end of every bear phase, the market usually experiences a sharp fall first, and only after that does the next bull market begin. The same pattern seems to be playing out now.
Our bear market predictions have largely turned out to be correct because we analyze the market based on valuations and earnings, rather than short-term news.
I believe that the Smallcap 250 index could witness a strong rally once the bull market begins. Currently, the index is around 15,000, and I expect it to consolidate around these levels until the Q4 results are announced.
Since the Nifty 50 has not corrected significantly yet, whenever it falls, it creates some pressure on the Smallcap 250 index as well. However, the impact on small caps is relatively limited compared to large caps.
Historically, when the market forms a bottom at the end of a bear phase, there is usually a trigger or event behind it.
In the 2018–19 bear phase, the COVID crash formed the market bottom.
In the 2022–23 correction, the Hindenburg report on the Adani Group triggered a sharp fall that helped form the bottom.
Similarly, in the 2025–26 bear phase, the Israel–Iran war may act as the trigger that helps the market reach reasonable valuations and form a bottom.
Therefore, investors should not see the war purely as a negative factor for the market. In fact, it may help the market correct faster and form a bottom sooner. Otherwise, the bear market could have lasted for a much longer period.
💥₹8.7 Lakh Cr Jal Jeevan Mission 2.0
The Government of India has approved Jal Jeevan Mission 2.0 with an outlay of around ₹8.7 lakh crore until 2028.
This massive investment will significantly boost sectors like:
💧 Water Infrastructure
🚰 Pipe Manufacturing
⚙️ Pump Technology
🏗️ Water Engineering
Many stocks from these sectors are outperforming in the market today.
• WPIL Limited
• Enviro Infra Engineers
• Oswal Pumps
• Shakti Pumps
• Denta Water and Infra Solutions
• Ion Exchange (India) Limited
• EMS Limited
• Indian Hume Pipe Company
• SPML Infra
• Om Infra
These companies operate in water supply, treatment, pipelines, and pump manufacturing, making them potential beneficiaries of the Jal Jeevan Mission expansion.💥💥
Currently, the Nifty 50 PE is around 21, and I believe it should fall below 20 to make valuations more reasonable. Based on this, I expect the Nifty 50 to correct further and possibly reach the 23,000 level during March 2026.
The Smallcap 250 index has already gone through a significant correction and is now available at attractive valuations, along with strong earnings growth. That is why we are seeing strong buying in many small-cap stocks whenever the market recovers.
However, the selling pressure in the Nifty 50 is currently putting pressure on the small-cap index as well.
I expect a strong rally in the Smallcap 250 index after the Q4 earnings season. If the Nifty 50 corrects further and valuations become more reasonable, then the Nifty 50 could also participate in the rally.
At present, the Nifty 50 is near 24,000, which could be a golden opportunity for FIIs to sell aggressively and bring the index closer to 23,000. Because if the Nifty moves above 25,000, it may become difficult to bring it back down to the 23,000 level again.
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