Replete Equities

_Morning Snippet - 02nd July 2026_ *Index Observation* After consolidating for all its monthly expiry session with a negative bias to the index bounced back double the amount of gain on first day of July series. We had highlighted to buy the dip so far it remains below 23950 the range to accumulate remains valid as support remains unchanged near 23800. Short covering likely to unfold above 24000 while a larger move unfolds above 24200. Overall, this leg remains open for retest of 24150 and 24600 on the upside. We have rolled over our June Fut longs on Nifty to July with a 70 pt rollover spread. Both blends of oil have cooled off to 4 month lows which can arrest any incremental selling from these levels. Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty as well faced two consecutive day ending below its previous day’s low as the index took a step back before its larger step forward. First day of July series ended above its previous day’s high negating the pullback move and resuming its uptrend. Currently it has reversed from its April 2026 resistance which has acted as support all through last month which can be used to buy / add on longs with 57100 odd acting as support on downside. Upside is seen for 58800 retest once again post which can continue to head for 60000 mark. BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for today while the weekly closing on charts is seen tomorrow. *Interesting Observation* The all-time high for Nifty 50 was recorded in the initial days of this year. Since then, the large-cap benchmark index has declined to about 9% from this all-time high. A different picture is emerging in the broader market. - The Nifty Midcap 100 index breached that January high and has is currently retesting the breakout level, a healthy sign following a sustained rally. - The Nifty Smallcap 100 also printed a newer high after January, retested this break and moved forward, suggesting strong underlying strength in the small cap space. This price action among the three indices show the resilience and the underlying strength in the mid and small cap segments, while the large-cap heavyweights that dominate the Nifty 50 continue to lag.

_Morning Snippet - 01st July 2026_ *Index Observation* Nifty consolidated all of its monthly expiry session with a negative bias to end with 80 pt cut. The index is in range to buy this dip and so far it remains below 23950 the range to accumalate remains valid as support remains unchanged near 23800. Short covering likely to unfold above 24000 while a larger move unfolds above 24200. Overall this leg remains open for retest of 24150 and 24600 on the upside. _We have rolled over our June Fut longs on Nifty to July with a 70 pt rollover spread._ Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty as well faced it second consecutive day ending below its previous day’s low as the index is taking a step back before its larger step forward. Currently it holds at its April 2026 resistance which has acted as support all through last month which can be used to buy / add on longs with 57100 odd acting as support on downside. Upside is seen for 58800 retest once again. BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow while the weekly closing on charts is seen on Friday. *DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup* *Cash Market Activity* FII: ₹ -2,556 crore DII: ₹ 6,842 crore *Week-to-Date (WTD)* FII: ₹ -3,906 crore DII: ₹ 9,643 crore *Month-to-Date (MTD)* FII: ₹ -49,028 crore DII: ₹ 85,500 crore *F&O Cues* In the options segment, the 23800 strike to act as support, while the 24200 strike remains a key resistance. *The Rollover Analysis* 30th June 2026 Market Rollover Snapshot * Nifty futures rollover stood at 80% vs 73% (last three series average), indicating stronger-than-usual rollover activity with traders carrying forward positions into the July series. * Bank Nifty futures rollover stood at 84% vs 78% (last three series average), reflecting aggressive rollover participation and sustained positioning in the banking space. * Market-wide rollovers stood at 91%, broadly in line with the three-series average of 91%, suggesting healthy participation across the derivatives universe * Roll cost remained at around 62 bps on expiry, FII Positioning * FIIs continue to maintain a cautious stance with 257k net short index futures contracts, significantly higher than previous expiry levels, indicating institutional hedging remains elevated despite the rollover. * On the other hand, Clients (HNI & Retail) increased their bullish exposure with 186k net long contracts, highlighting continued optimism from domestic participants and maintaining the ongoing contrarian positioning versus FIIs. Stock & Sector Specific Rollovers Energy Sector Energy remains one of the strongest pockets on short side from the rollover data. Stocks such as BPCL, ONGC, IOC and Petronet LNG witnessed rollovers well above their historical averages. Power Sector Power continues to exhibit one of the strongest long-biased rollover structures. Power Finance Corp, Adani Green and Waaree Energies** have all seen above-average rollovers with supportive roll spreads, indicating continuation of the prevailing trend. Pharma Sector Pharma remains firmly positioned on the long side. Dr. Reddy's, Biocon and Lupin have witnessed constructive rollovers, suggesting the sector continues to attract fresh participation after its recent outperformance. Financials The broader financial space remains mixed. While FIIs continue to maintain significant index shorts, select financial stocks such as **Federal Bank, Angel One, witnessed aggressive stock-specific rollovers, indicating stock selection is likely to outperform broad sector exposure. For stock-specific rollover actionables, we will be releasing our preferred trading ideas during market hours after assessing favourable risk-reward opportunities.

Morning Snippet - 30th June *Index Observation* Nifty ended half a percent lower yesterday as participants adjusted positions on an index rejig day - ahead of its monthly expiry due today. This 23900 - 23950 is a buy on dip zone to existing longs as support remains unchanged at 23800. Upside seems unfolding for 24150 / 24600 while our positional buy call on June fut remains open. Having closed at 12 week high on weekly charts, Bank Nifty continues to show strength after completing its swing from 57000 to 58800 last week. View remains unchanged from yesterday with dips near 57700 likely to get bought into for retest of 58800 and further for 60k zone with 57100 acting as support as it also collides with its 200 DMA. Nifty and all NSE stock derivatives expiry is scheduled for today along with monthly and quarterly closing on charts. While BSE Sensex weekly expiry is seen on Thursday. *DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup* *Cash Market Activity* FII: ₹ -1,350 crore DII: ₹ 2,801 crore *Week-to-Date (WTD)* FII: ₹ -1,350 crore DII: ₹ 2,801 crore *Month-to-Date (MTD)* FII: ₹ -46,471 crore DII: ₹ 78,957 crore *F&O Cues* FII stance on index futures were neutral in previous trading session. They have added 10k short contracts. The net position on index futures stand at 234k short contracts In the options segment, the 23800 strike to act as support, while the 24200 strike remains a key resistance. *Rollovers (D-1) | One day to Expiry* *INDEX ROLLOVERS* Nifty rollovers above its 3 month average, with Bank Nifty in line rollovers compared to 3 month average * Nifty: 66% vs 61% avg * Bank Nifty: 64% vs 65% avg *LONG BIAS SETUPS* Fresh long buildup with OI expansion and above-average rollovers — longs being carried into the next series. *Vedanta* OI up 47%, with rollovers at 84% against 64% average. *Nykaa* OI surged 17% over average, rollovers at 93% compared to 80% average *Lupin* Short covering seen in the counter with OI down 25% in yesterday’s session , rollovers at 81% against 78% average. *SHORT BIAS SETUPS* Aggressive short buildup with elevated rollovers — bearish bets carried forward. *Waaree Energies * Signs of short buildup. OI up 42% vs 3M avg, rollovers at 90% compared to 77% average *BPCL* Signs of Long unwinding. OI down 22% vs 3M avg, rollovers at 90% against 74% average.

Published a new Article on blog. Here is the details: Defined Risk Nifty Options Strategy: A July 2026 Case Study https://www.repleteequities.com/blog/defined-risk-nifty-options-strategy-july-2026

**Most traders think every market view has only two outcomes. Bullish or Bearish. In reality, experienced traders think differently. The first question isn't: "Where will Nifty go?" It's: "How confident am I in my view, and how much risk am I willing to take if I'm wrong?" That's exactly how I approached the July 2026 Nifty expiry. Instead of buying naked options or taking unlimited risk, I've structured a defined-risk options strategy around my current market view. (Strategy screenshot attached.) A few observations behind this setup: • I expect Nifty to remain constructive over the coming weeks. • At the same time, I don't want to ignore the possibility of unexpected volatility. • Every trade starts with defining risk first, then looking at the potential reward. One thing I've learnt over the years is that traders spend a lot of time searching for the "perfect strategy." The better question is: Is your strategy aligned with your market view and your risk appetite? A good strategy applied in the wrong market environment can still lose money. That's why at Replete, we spend more time discussing: • Trade Management • Position Sizing • Risk Management • Strategy Selection than simply predicting market direction. Remember... Entry is important. Exit is important. Stop-loss is important. But trade management is often more important than all three.** I'm sharing this setup to explain my current thought process - not as a recommendation to blindly replicate. I'd love to know... How are you positioning yourself for the July expiry? If you'd like to learn how we select the right options strategy based on market structure, volatility and risk, not just market direction: DM me FOUNDATION. Happy to discuss.

Markets are closed today. Which makes it the perfect day to work on your trading, instead of in the market. Over the years, I've noticed something interesting. Whenever the market is closed, traders usually spend their time searching for: • A new strategy • A better indicator • A better entry setup But very few spend time reviewing how they actually manage a trade once it's live. And that's where I believe consistency is built. People often ask me what the most important part of trading is. Is it the entry? The stop-loss? The exit? My answer has remained the same for years. Entry is important. Exit is important. Stop-loss is important. But trade management is often more important than all three. A good trade can become a losing trade because of poor decisions after entry. At the same time, a difficult trade can often be controlled with disciplined adjustments, proper position sizing and structured execution. That's exactly why, at Replete, we spend far more time discussing trade management than predicting where Nifty or Bank Nifty will close tomorrow. This week, I shared our 5-Month Intraday Basket Performance Report. I'm happy to say it started some meaningful conversations with traders. Interestingly, most of those conversations weren't about finding another strategy. They were about: • Managing risk better. • Building consistency. • Avoiding emotional decisions. • Creating a repeatable execution process. That tells me something important. Most experienced traders don't have a knowledge problem. They have an execution problem. I'll be travelling over this long weekend, but I'll still be available on WhatsApp and can take a few calls. So instead of running another discount or webinar, I'd like to do something more valuable. Over the next three days, I'm opening a limited number of Trade Management Discussions. We'll talk about: • Your current trading approach • Position sizing • Risk management • Trade adjustments • What's preventing you from becoming more consistent If I genuinely feel our Intraday Execution System can help you, I'll explain how it works. If I don't, I'll tell you that honestly too. No pressure. No hard selling. Just a professional discussion between traders. If you'd like to connect over the long weekend, simply send me a DM with: TRADE Let's use this market holiday to improve the process before the markets open again.

Published a new Article on blog. Here is the details: Stock Market Prediction for Monday 29 June 2026 | Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Wrap, Levels & Trading Plan https://www.repleteequities.com/blog/stock-market-prediction-for-monday-29-june-2026

Replete Equities | Morning Snippet – 26th June 2026 Index Observation Nifty has staged a smart recovery over the last two sessions and is now trading back above the psychologically important 24,100 mark. The index continues to respect the 23,800–23,900 support zone, keeping the short-term structure firmly positive. While the recent bounce has improved sentiment, the next hurdle lies around 24,200, where option writers have built meaningful resistance. Technically, the daily chart continues to print higher lows after the April recovery, with momentum indicators strengthening and MACD remaining in positive territory. As long as Nifty holds above 24,000 on a closing basis, the path of least resistance remains higher towards 24,300–24,450, while a sustained move above this zone can open the gates for 24,600. Bank Nifty continues to outperform the broader market and remains the stronger index. After reclaiming 58,000, the index is now inching closer to the important 58,800–59,000 resistance zone. The overall structure remains constructive with higher highs, higher lows and improving momentum. Dips towards 57,800–58,000 should continue to attract buying interest. Today marks the monthly expiry for BSE Sensex and Bankex, while NSE Nifty, Bank Nifty and stock derivatives head into monthly expiry next Tuesday. Expect volatility to remain elevated with sharp intraday swings around key strike levels. --- DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup Cash Market Activity DII: ₹3,637 Crore FII: ₹-1,843 Crore Week-to-Date (WTD) DII: ₹5,352 Crore FII: ₹-2,461 Crore Month-to-Date (MTD) DII: ₹70,408 Crore FII: ₹-45,505 Crore --- F&O Cues FIIs maintained a largely neutral stance in index futures during the previous session, adding nearly 500 net short contracts. Their overall net short position continues to hover around 2.30 lakh contracts, suggesting they remain cautious despite the recent market recovery. Today's option activity paints a constructive picture. NIFTY Strong Put writing is visible around 24,100–24,150, indicating immediate support. Fresh Call writing has emerged near 24,200, making it the first resistance for today's trade. Above 24,200, the next supply zone shifts towards 24,400. SENSEX (Today's Monthly Expiry) The Sensex option chain shows aggressive positioning around the current spot. 77,500 witnessed the highest Put addition (+3.96 lakh) along with fresh Call writing, making it the immediate pivot for today's expiry. Significant Call writing is also visible at 77,600, followed by 77,700–78,000, indicating a stiff resistance zone. On the downside, Put writers have actively accumulated positions between 77,000–77,500, suggesting that buyers continue to defend declines. Overall, today's OI build-up suggests a buy-on-dips approach remains favourable unless key support zones are violated. --- Interesting Observation Financials Continue to Lead the Market One theme has become increasingly evident over the past few weeks—the market leadership continues to shift towards financials. Bank Nifty has consistently outperformed Nifty, reclaiming key resistance levels while most other sectors are still attempting to recover. The index has now moved back near its previous swing highs, indicating sustained institutional participation. Interestingly, this leadership is also visible in today's derivatives positioning. Put writers continue to defend lower levels aggressively, while Call writers are only adding positions near immediate resistance rather than building fresh bearish bets across the board. This generally reflects confidence that declines are likely to remain limited. Historically, sustainable rallies in Indian equities have rarely occurred without participation from banking stocks. As long as Bank Nifty continues to hold above 58,000, the broader market is likely to retain its positive bias. For traders, the message remains simple: > Respect the trend, trade with the leaders, and let option writers reveal where the smart money is positioning itself.

Replete Equities | Morning Snippet – 26th June 2026 Index Observation Nifty has staged a smart recovery over the last two sessions and is now trading back above the psychologically important 24,100 mark. The index continues to respect the 23,800–23,900 support zone, keeping the short-term structure firmly positive. While the recent bounce has improved sentiment, the next hurdle lies around 24,200, where option writers have built meaningful resistance. Technically, the daily chart continues to print higher lows after the April recovery, with momentum indicators strengthening and MACD remaining in positive territory. As long as Nifty holds above 24,000 on a closing basis, the path of least resistance remains higher towards 24,300–24,450, while a sustained move above this zone can open the gates for 24,600. Bank Nifty continues to outperform the broader market and remains the stronger index. After reclaiming 58,000, the index is now inching closer to the important 58,800–59,000 resistance zone. The overall structure remains constructive with higher highs, higher lows and improving momentum. Dips towards 57,800–58,000 should continue to attract buying interest. Today marks the monthly expiry for BSE Sensex and Bankex, while NSE Nifty, Bank Nifty and stock derivatives head into monthly expiry next Tuesday. Expect volatility to remain elevated with sharp intraday swings around key strike levels. DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup Cash Market Activity DII: ₹3,637 Crore FII: ₹-1,843 Crore Week-to-Date (WTD) DII: ₹5,352 Crore FII: ₹-2,461 Crore Month-to-Date (MTD) DII: ₹70,408 Crore FII: ₹-45,505 Crore F&O Cues FIIs maintained a largely neutral stance in index futures during the previous session, adding nearly 500 net short contracts. Their overall net short position continues to hover around 2.30 lakh contracts, suggesting they remain cautious despite the recent market recovery. Today's option activity paints a constructive picture. NIFTY Strong Put writing is visible around 24,100–24,150, indicating immediate support. Fresh Call writing has emerged near 24,200, making it the first resistance for today's trade. Above 24,200, the next supply zone shifts towards 24,400. SENSEX (Today's Monthly Expiry) The Sensex option chain shows aggressive positioning around the current spot. 77,500 witnessed the highest Put addition (+3.96 lakh) along with fresh Call writing, making it the immediate pivot for today's expiry. Significant Call writing is also visible at 77,600, followed by 77,700–78,000, indicating a stiff resistance zone. On the downside, Put writers have actively accumulated positions between 77,000–77,500, suggesting that buyers continue to defend declines. Overall, today's OI build-up suggests a buy-on-dips approach remains favourable unless key support zones are violated. Interesting Observation Financials Continue to Lead the Market One theme has become increasingly evident over the past few weeks—the market leadership continues to shift towards financials. Bank Nifty has consistently outperformed Nifty, reclaiming key resistance levels while most other sectors are still attempting to recover. The index has now moved back near its previous swing highs, indicating sustained institutional participation. Interestingly, this leadership is also visible in today's derivatives positioning. Put writers continue to defend lower levels aggressively, while Call writers are only adding positions near immediate resistance rather than building fresh bearish bets across the board. This generally reflects confidence that declines are likely to remain limited. Historically, sustainable rallies in Indian equities have rarely occurred without participation from banking stocks. As long as Bank Nifty continues to hold above 58,000, the broader market is likely to retain its positive bias. For traders, the message remains simple:

Respect the trend, trade with the leaders, and let option writers reveal where the smart money is positioning itself.

Photo from Replete Equities

Most traders focus on finding the next strategy. Very few focus on building a repeatable execution process. Over the last 5 months, our Nifty & Sensex Intraday Basket delivered: ✅ ₹5.86 Lakhs Profit ✅ 19.55% ROI ✅ 58.33% Win Rate ✅ 233 Trading Periods ✅ Maximum Drawdown: 2.05% ✅ Zero Negative Months The attached report contains the complete performance breakdown. What stands out to me isn't the profit. It's the consistency. No prediction. No hero trades. No chasing momentum. Just structured execution, risk management and disciplined trade management. If you're an options trader looking for a systematic approach rather than random trades, DM me: BASKET and I'll share how the Intraday Execution System works. 📄 Full performance report attached.

## First Hour Snippet | 24th June 2026 Index Observation Nifty witnessed sharp profit booking in Tuesday’s session and slipped close to the crucial 23,800 support zone. However, today's recovery from lower levels indicates that buyers are still defending this area aggressively. As of now, there is no structural damage on the daily chart as long as Nifty continues to hold above the 23,800–23,900 zone on a closing basis. From the derivatives perspective, today's OI addition is clearly concentrated on the put side between 23,800 and 23,900, suggesting strong support creation by option writers. On the upside, call writers remain active around 24,000, while higher resistance is visible near 24,400. Technically, Nifty is trading above its session VWAP and continues to hold within its broader consolidation range. A sustained move above 24,000 can trigger a short-covering rally towards 24,150, followed by 24,400–24,600. On the downside, any close below 23,800 would be the first sign of short-term weakness. Bank Nifty continues to display relative strength compared to Nifty. The index has successfully defended the 57,000 zone, which coincides with its 200-DMA support area. Momentum indicators are improving and the index remains on track towards its extended target zone of 58,800, provided 57,000 continues to hold. With monthly expiry approaching, volatility is expected to remain elevated and stock-specific opportunities are likely to outperform broad index moves. DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup Cash Market Activity DII: ₹ 680 Crore FII: ₹ 17 Crore Week-to-Date (WTD) DII: ₹ 1,715 Crore FII: ₹ -618 Crore Month-to-Date (MTD) DII: ₹ 66,770 Crore FII: ₹ -43,662 Crore F&O Cues FIIs maintained a largely neutral stance in index futures during the previous session. They added nearly 6,000 net short contracts, taking their overall net short positioning close to 230,000 contracts. Today's option chain activity suggests: 🔹 Strong Put Writing: 23,800 & 23,900 🔹 Immediate Resistance: 24,000 🔹 Higher Resistance Zone: 24,400 🔹 Max Support Base: 23,800 The Put OI addition (+3.2 Cr contracts) continues to significantly outweigh Call OI addition (+1.17 Cr contracts), indicating that option writers are currently defending lower levels rather than anticipating a major breakdown. Interesting Observation Over the past few weeks, we've highlighted the importance of tracking the relationship between the Dollar Index (DXY) and emerging market flows. The 100–101 zone on DXY has acted as a major inflection area since 2023. After spending several months below this level, the dollar has started showing signs of reclaiming this zone. Historically, a stronger dollar tends to tighten liquidity conditions for emerging markets and can create pressure on commodities and metal-related counters. At the same time, weakness in Chinese equities continues to reinforce this risk-off setup. For now, the market is balancing two opposing forces: ✅ Falling crude oil prices, which remain supportive for India. ⚠️ A strengthening dollar, which can limit risk appetite globally. The next few sessions around monthly expiry should provide greater clarity on which narrative takes control. Levels to Track NIFTY Support: 23,900 / 23,800 Resistance: 24,000 / 24,150 / 24,400 BANK NIFTY Support: 57,000 Resistance: 58,000 / 58,800 View: Neutral to Positive above 23,800. Expect range-bound trade with a positive bias unless key supports are violated.

Photo from Replete Equities

📊 End of Day Update Today's Intraday Option Selling Basket closed with: ✅ Current MTM: ₹20,930 📈 Max MTM: ₹31,297 📉 Intraday Drawdown: ₹21,320 The interesting part isn't the final P&L. It's the journey. The system experienced drawdowns, market fluctuations and multiple decision points throughout the session. Yet the outcome was driven by predefined rules rather than emotions. This is what structured execution looks like. Most traders focus on entries. Consistent traders focus on process. For traders looking to build a systematic approach to intraday index options trading, our Nifty & Sensex Intraday Basket is currently open. 🎁 Weekend Offer: Use code WEEKEND for 20% off. Details: https://www.repleteequities.com/tp-sen

Published a new Article on blog. Here is the details: Stock Market Prediction for Monday 22 June 2026 | Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Wrap, Levels & Trading Plan https://www.repleteequities.com/blog/stock-market-prediction-for-monday-22-june-2026

This setup is just one example of how structured options strategies can be used to express a market view with defined risk. For traders who want to go beyond individual trades and build a complete framework around market structure, strategy selection, risk management and execution, our Options Trading Foundations Program is currently open. We work with serious traders who are looking for process-driven decision making rather than tips or predictions. Details: https://www.repleteequities.com/foundation-program

Bank Nifty has rallied sharply over the past few sessions. The question now is: How do you position for a potential downside move without taking unlimited risk? One approach I'm looking at currently is a Bear Put Spread in Bank Nifty. Structure: ✅ Buy 56500 PE ✅ Sell 56000 PE Expiry: June End Why this structure? Because it allows me to express a bearish view while keeping risk predefined. Instead of buying naked puts and exposing myself to rapid time decay, the short put helps offset part of the premium paid. Current metrics: • Maximum Risk: ₹41,490 • Maximum Reward: ₹1.09 Lakh • Risk : Reward ≈ 1 : 2.6 • Breakeven: 56,362 The trade doesn't require a market crash. A controlled downside move into expiry can be sufficient for the structure to work. What I find interesting about spread strategies is that they force traders to think differently. Not: "Will the market go down?" But: "How much downside is realistically possible, and what is the most efficient way to position for it?" Many traders spend too much time predicting. Very few spend enough time structuring. And often, structuring matters more. Would you express this view differently? Curious to hear how other options traders are looking at Bank Nifty here.