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While we are all trying to figure out what is happening to bitcoin now and where it will go next, a comparison of growth cycles still makes it clear that growth awaits us. All the current dynamics fit perfectly into the pattern of rate behavior between the Halving (Galaxy)
Cryptoprojects with the highest developer activity in the last 30 days:
1) Polkadot #DOT
2) Kusama #KSM
3) Cardano #ADA
4) InternetComputer #ICP
5) Ethereum #ETH
6) Status #SNT
7) Hedera #HBAR
8) Cosmos #ATOM
9) Chainlink #LINK
10) Decentraland #MANA
Long-term holders at current levels are intensively fixing profits on bitcoin. Accordingly, a local pullback is quite possible. Technically, the VTS chart also looks weak: the bearish wedge has already been broken down on the 4-hour timeframe.
(Glassnode)
One of the most reliable metrics on bitcoin, NUPL, which predicts extremes, signals the VTC to move out of the "oversold" zone. Historically, it has always reliably predicted the bull run.
Strong inflows of VTCs to exchanges continue. In the last two days, bitcoins were added to exchanges for more than a billion dollars (Glassnode).
All of this poses the threat of massive fixes, especially in the event of a price drop.
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BTC miners are using the Bitcoin cycle comparison chart, and now is the hottest time for growth. The price spike we saw in the previous few days was the beginning of the bull run in previous times.
This week's token unlock calendar as a percentage of total supply
#DYDX #BIT #EUL #GAL #APE #STG
Circle said that the situation is "inflated" - the main collateral issuer USDC are stored in BlackRock and BNY Mellon, and even if you can not get back that $3.3 billion from Silicon Valley, the shortfall will be overlaid from corporate reserves.
They promise to restore full USDC-dollar parity by the beginning of the new week.
JPMorgan is still in a bearish mood. For market recovery, it is waiting for the resumption of capitalization growth of steibles and the resumption of growth of venture capital investments in crypto. Right now, both are falling.
And the recent collapse of Silvergate crypto-bank and tighter regulation of crypto in general will have a negative impact on financial flows in the near future.
Funding rates are signaling that short positions are actively accumulating on bitcoin (CryptoQuant).
Historically, this has been a good bullish sign.
We can already state the fact that in the market there was a distribution of VTC from weak to strong hands. Now a significant portion of bitcoin supply is again controlled by long-term holders.
In the past this always preceded bullruns. The graph looks very optimistic (CryptoQuant)
March has been a positive month for bitcoin lately, but historically it is still a weak time. On average, VTC was down 4.8%.
The mass withdrawal of bitcoins and ethers from centralized exchanges continues. Balances on exchanges have fallen to 5-year lows. Falling supply of BTC and ETH on trading floors reduces the likelihood of strong sales in the future (Santiment)
Most indicators on the higher timeframes are signaling an impending rise in bitcoin.
Visually all cycles of growth and decline have been similar, the current bear market is no exception.
Technically right now we are breaking through long-term dynamic resistance. Historically, this event has triggered a powerful up-trend. With each new one, there is less and less chance of history repeating itself completely. So getting into longs on the whole cutlet is clearly not the right time. But it's also not a good idea to sit completely in stablenecoin waiting for a new decline. Right now a healthy caution is the ideal solution.
Against the background of bitcoin growth to 25000$ the very reliable Puell multiplier also gives a bullish signal. After exiting the oversold zone, it rose to a 14-month high and rose above the "1" mark.
Historically, this has given a signal for the start of the bull run.
The current behavior of bitcoin continues to fit perfectly with the dynamics of previous cycles of correction and growth (Coinshares)
There are strikingly similar bearish cycles in the GTS in 2017-2018 and now.
Then, in a similar situation, we got a rise of almost three times.
Bitcoin network on February 3 recorded a transaction of 313 million dollars, a record for 4 weeks (Santiment)
An interesting observation: previously, after such record deals there was often a change in trends.
The monthly bitcoin chart shows a fairly bullish picture. The long fall stopped at the strong mirror level of ~$18,000. And after the horizontal consolidation a rebound begins.
Strong resistance is now only around $30,000. Therefore, the chances of continued growth are still high.
The bulk of the liquidation of longs is now in the $16,000-22,000 range.
A large number of short liquidations are in the 26000-29000 range (Kingfisher)
These levels always act as magnets.
There is a significant overflow of funds to altcoins with low capitalization (Santiment)
So far, bitcoin movement is not much different from previous correction cycles (Arcane)
Binance’s Fiat Partner Signature Bank Puts A Minimum Transaction Limit
https://bit.ly/3WvxFSk
Large Bitcoin wallet volume trades (Whalemap)
The accumulation was really large-scale and the fuel for growth created is enormous.
The service Glassnode found a strong overflow of stables in the VTS. Most often this happened somewhere near the tops, although it did not prevent the price from rising for a while longer.
There are many similarities between the formation of the macrodynes in VTS in 2022 and 2018. In this regard, many are waiting for X's right away, some are longing with a big leverage. But the big difference is that 4 years ago there was monetary policy easing around the world, and now there is tightening. At the very least, it could hinder rapid growth," warns Bloomberg Intelligence
Just-In: This Crypto-Focused Bank Lost $1 Billion Due To FTX Collapse
https://bit.ly/3QKsUT
Just-In: Financial Giant Linked With Galaxy Digital Plans To Buy FTX Japan
https://bit.ly/3WhfsrH
Against the background of the growth of bitcoin to $ 21,000, there is an accumulation of coins by all types of large wallets (Santiment)
Bitcoin's illiquid supply has reached a record 15 million coins. These are the VTCs that are now off the exchanges. Most of them are in cold wallets and are not traded (SFC)
A new review of the crypto market from Glassnode:
Volatility held at record-low levels all through the New Year holidays, which is very atypical. It usually ended with strong momentum (in either direction).
The market approached fundamental valuations, and the bulk of the speculative capital was washed out in the second half of 2022.
Breaking: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Announces 20% Additional Layoff
https://bit.ly/3QwBcyI
Breaking: Huobi Korea Severs Ties With Parent Firm; Will HT Token Tank?
https://bit.ly/3WYi66K
The sales pressure of bitcoin miners has come to naught. They have finally moved on to accumulation (Glassnode)
The Huobi exchange is beginning to stress its problems. Now they are planning to lay off 20% of the staff, for the last days there was withdrawn $90 million, of which $60 million in the last 24 hours.
Stablecoin USDD has again lost its 1-to-1 peg to the dollar.
That said, Justin Sun has always been a murky character. We don't know what goes on in their inner kitchen, but as a rule, there is no smoke without fire. It is advisable to keep on this exchange a reasonable percentage of the portfolio and generally look for an alternative.