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Crypto Fear & Greed Index Now: 13(Extreme Fear)

Today, $778.5 million in USDC hit crypto exchanges in just one hour. That marks the largest hourly stablecoin inflow since the last $BTC ATH. Sums like that are rarely moved without a reason — usually, it is positioning ahead of buys.

The U.S. is moving troops toward Iran. Military aircraft are flying non-stop between the U.S. and the Middle East, transporting equipment and soldiers. A ground operation appears to be getting closer. This may be the “very powerful strike” Trump referred to earlier today.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Now: 8 (Extreme Fear)

JUST IN: Over $250 million liquidated from crypto market in the past 4 hours.

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BTC liquidation map is still skewed higher. At the moment, the largest concentration of long positions sits in the $61,000-$64,400 range, while short positions are clustered above $76,500. What stands out is positioning: most traders are currently favoring shorts. If BTC rises to $76,500, short liquidations would be roughly $4.5B - nearly double the $2.5B in long liquidations that would be triggered if price drops to $61,000.

The Strait of Hormuz is open - but there’s a catch. Over the past 24 hours, only 9 vessels have passed through the strait. According to rumors, Iran has allowed navigation for China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Iraq, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. For other countries, a reported tariff of $2M per ship may apply. Markets are red because there is still no clarity on the Iran-U.S. talks - who Trump is speaking to, and for what purpose, remains unclear. On top of that, media reports say Saudi Arabia has urged the U.S. to continue strikes on Iran and push for regime change. Waiting for the next headline from Trump, once his team reloads the exchange balance.

Another Ethereum OG, thomasg.eth - who was holding $538 million in crypto at the 2021 market peak - is now gradually rebuilding his position. Yesterday, he bought another $3 million worth of ETH. Over the past week, he has accumulated $19.5 million in ETH and moved it into staking on Aave.

Altcoin trading volumes are dropping sharply Current volume on Binance is around $7.7 billion, while other exchanges are seeing about $18.8 billion. That is far below the levels seen during active market phases, when Binance volumes reached $40-50 billion and other platforms saw as much as $91 billion. CryptoQuant analysts note that, historically, the best investment opportunities tend to emerge when market interest is at its lowest.

Risk-off sentiment is intensifying Escalation in the Middle East remains the main source of pressure on markets. Strikes on energy infrastructure are continuing, oil prices are rising, and there is still no clear end to the conflict. Powell’s hawkish tone at the Fed meeting only added to that pressure. He made it clear that rate cuts are unlikely amid rising prices and inflation. Markets are now pricing in just one cut, while some major banks expect zero cuts this year. All of this is weighing on risk assets, especially equities. In this backdrop, BTC is still showing a local safe-haven effect. Geopolitics is clearly reinforcing the broader risk-off mood. Crypto is not immune - liquidity-driven moves and manipulation are still part of the picture - but it continues to look relatively strong versus other risk assets, with BTC once again holding above 70K. Forecasting here is difficult because the situation can shift at any moment. As long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists, BTC will likely keep trading within the current range. Altcoin squeezes and pumps are not going anywhere, so we work with what the market gives us and reassess from there.

Markets are flying again Oil jumped to $108, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all under selling pressure. The move comes after Iran announced an attack on the largest gas field and promised retaliatory strikes on oil infrastructure. At the same time, U.S. PPI came in hotter than expected, rising 0.5% to 3.4% after forecasts called for it to hold at 2.9%. There are now less than 6 hours left until the Fed’s rate decision. Powell is reportedly urgently rewriting his remarks for the press conference.

CryptoQuant’s CEO is flagging the same thing many are seeing right now: a large share of crypto analysts currently holds a bullish outlook on BTC.

📢If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could spike ~150% to $175, marking the largest surge since the 1979 oil crisis.

BITCOIN IS AT A MASSIVE MULTI-YEAR SUPPORT. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED, BITCOIN WENT UP BY 450% 🔥 TIGHTEN YOUR SEATBELTS 🚀

More Bitcoin shorts were liquidated than longs over the past 7 days.

Americans now own more Bitcoin than gold

Some whale keeps accumulating ETH. Over the past 2 days, 11,629 ETH ($23.71M) were withdrawn from Binance to a new wallet (0xfDe8). At the same time, over the last 2 days, 63,324 ETH ($131.2M) were withdrawn from Kraken to another wallet (0x8E34).