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IJM says MACC, IRB officials gathered info at its office, operations continuing as usual
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/789761
今天不少机构应该是冒冷汗，
反而投行最开心。
IJM 今日成交额接近 2 亿令吉，
按 0.3% 的投行收费来算，
单日就贡献了约 60 万令吉的佣金。
全球市占63%挫至35% 大马手套业遭中国“碾压追赶” | e南洋
https://www.enanyang.my/news/20260119/Finance/1138381
SMRT (RM0.445) - Unexpected earnings reset. Downgrade to Sell
by Sam Jun Kit
Summary :
Management indicated at a meeting last Friday that its deployment pace for TNB is expected to slow materially in the coming years, following the opening up of TNB’s SCADA vendor base.
This came as a negative surprise and indicates a sharp earnings reset, given that c.38% of group earnings were previously driven by one-off deployment revenue.
The anticipated step-down in TNB's contribution invalidates Sam Jun Kit's prior BUY thesis.
Accordingly, he cuts FY26/27/28f earnings by -18%/-41%/-44%, respectively.
Following the earnings reset, Sam rebases SMRT’s valuation to 8x P/E (from 20x previously) to reflect the potential earnings void as TNB’s recurring income base approaches expiry over the next three years.
Sam downgrades the stock to Sell rating (from Buy) with lower TP of RM0.32 (from RM1.24 previously).
Details :
SMRT has entered into a Strategic Technology Collaboration and Engagement Agreement with Kuasa Aktif Sdn. Bhd. to formalise a framework for ongoing and future technology research, enhancement, demonstration and potential commercial deployment.
Separately, management also indicated in the conference call that its deployment pace for TNB is expected to slow materially in the coming years, following the opening up of TNB’s SCADA vendor base.
As a result, upcoming TNB deployments are likely to be immaterial relative to historical run rates, suggesting a steep decline in one-off revenue from this customer going forward.
Unexpected negative
The loss of TNB’s one-off deployment revenue came as a negative surprise and indicates a sharp earnings reset ahead.
In 1Q26, c.38% of group earnings were driven by one-off deployment revenue, with managed services contributing the remaining 62%.
Sam estimates that >90% of the one-off component is attributable to TNB.
Management guided that site deployments are expected to contract materially from FY27 onwards, falling to <100 sites, down from a historical run-rate of c.3k sites.
While managed services provide some residual earnings support – with c.70% of managed sites linked to TNB and contracts expected to run for the next three years – Sam reckons renewal visibility beyond this period remains low.
With the one-off deployment revenue from TNB rolling off, Sam expects SMRT’s earnings to decline significantly in FY27.
Earnings gap without TNB deployment
Sam's previous BUY thesis on SMRT was anchored on earnings upside from TNB, driven by a large pool of unconnected sites and TNB’s Smart Grid rollout.
With new site deployment now expected to slow materially, Sam's earlier thesis is no longer intact.
While growth from Financial service industry and early-stage penetration into Indonesia’s power sector could provide alternative earnings drivers, Sam sees limited scope for these to fully offset the near-term earnings gap from TNB.
The strategic technology collaboration with Kuasa Aktif Sdn Bhd offers longer-term optionality via IP-protected solutions, but has yet to yield a commercial product for TNB.
Forecasts
Sam cuts FY26-28f earnings significantly by -18%/-41%/-44% respectively, primarily to reflect lower site additions of 2k/1k/1k.
He also revises the mix of site additions with one-off revenue to 50%/2%/2% (from 70% previously).
The modest net increase of c.1k sites post-FY27F assumes
(i) minimal incremental deployment from TNB; and
(ii) site additions from the FSI segment in the Philippines and Indonesia.
Core net EPS (sen) :
FY26 e : 5.0
FY27 f : 4.0
FY27 f : 4.0
Sam downgrades stock rating to SELL with a lower TP of RM0.32 (from RM1.24) based on valuation multiple of 8x P/E (from 20x previously) while rolling forward base year to FY27, reflecting potential earnings gap as TNB’s recurring income base approaches expiry over the next three years.
This P/E multiple implies a -1.5SD below the 5-year KL Small Cap index mean. Sam turns negative as earnings visibility deteriorates amid an expected sharp step-down in TNB’s contribution.
