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奈飞（Netflix）Q1 指引不及预期，盘后股价下跌超过 4%。 📊 Q4 财报回顾（整体优于预期） 营收：$12.05B（高于预期 $11.97B）🟢 EPS：$0.56（高于预期 $0.55）🟢 付费用户数：突破 3.25 亿，再创历史新高 ➡️ 核心订阅业务依然稳健，用户增长未见明显放缓。 ⚠️ Q1 2026 指引（市场失望的关键） 营收：$12.16B（低于预期 $12.19B）🔴 EPS：$0.76（低于预期 $0.81）🔴 营业利润率：32.1%（低于预期 34.4%）🔴 ➡️ 并非增长停滞，而是 短期盈利能力与成本压力高于市场预期。 📈 FY2026 全年指引 Outlook（中长期仍偏正面） 全年营收指引：$50.7B～$51.7B（略高于市场预期 $50.98B）🟢 广告业务：公司预计 2026 年广告营收将较 2025 年翻倍 ➡️ 奈飞正在从“纯订阅模式”向 订阅 + 广告的双引擎模式转型。 💣 市场真正担忧的点：资本策略急转弯 暂停股票回购 加速囤积现金 计划以全现金方式收购 WBD（华纳兄弟探索） 这才是盘后大跌的核心原因： 市场原本将奈飞视为 高自由现金流 + 稳定回购的股东回报型公司 如今突然转向 大型并购 + 现金储备优先，估值逻辑被迫重估

美股直线拉升

🚨 *DANISH PENSION FUND AKADEMIKERPENSION TO EXIT US TREASURIES

美国天然气爆涨 23% 金、银、大宗商品全面爆涨

BESSENT ON FED: TRUMP MAY REACH FED CHAIR DECISION AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK - CNBC INTERVIEW

机会每年来， 后悔年年有。 特朗普只是负责 制造回调。 不是没机会， 是你每次都在“再等等”。 去年四月：再等等 去年十月：再等等 现在特朗普：再给机会了 不要到时又说还没上车 😜

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🇺🇸*US Policy Reports (20/1)* 1️⃣ *Tariff Risk Renewed as DC Stays on SCOTUS, Greenland Watch* 🔗 https://tinyurl.com/3vf4j6yc President Trump has threatened 10% tariffs on a group of European countries, escalating to 25% on June 1, unless a deal is reached for the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.” *EU lawmakers are set to halt the parliamentary approval of the US-EU trade agreement in response.* The Supreme Court will also release its next set of opinions on Tuesday (1/20), which could include a decision on the tariff case. 2️⃣ *RJ Macro Monday: Trade Volatility Revives With Greenland Tariff Threat* 🔗 https://tinyurl.com/5n9byy5s *Greenland tariff threats.* Trump escalated his Greenland push by announcing new 10% tariffs on several European countries, increasing to 25% by June if a deal for the U.S. to purchase Greenland is not reached. > ➡️ *Key issue:* If the White House uses IEEPA to implement the Greenland tariffs, they could be quickly curtailed given the pending Supreme Court decision. *U.S. involvement in Iran on hold – for now?* > ➡️ *Key issue*: We do not think a strike is off the table, but tensions have clearly waned; Trump is likely waiting to see what Tehran does next. *Critical minerals tariff announcement lays out path to price floor.* The Section 232 investigation into processed critical minerals punted the imposition of tariffs to allow for negotiations on price floors. > ➡️ *Key issue*: The tariff threat will remain, but the punt is ultimately unsurprising. *Venezuela, LatAm: what comes next?* > ➡️ *Key issue*: With the initial dust settling and the world watching other geopolitical developments (Greenland, Iran), our expectation is that domestic attention in Venezuela will turn to legislative reforms. *Court wins for offshore could help inch permitting reform debate along.* Courts reversed two of the White House’s stop-work orders on offshore wind last week. > ➡️ *Key issue*: The offshore wind issue remains a material hurdle to advancing permitting reform legislation, but we continue to believe that a path forward exists.

Vix jumped 7% to reach above 20.

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Malaysia-US reciprocal trade pact yet to take effect as Putrajaya seeks written assurances — Anwar https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/789855

🇬🇱 Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen: "If we have to choose between the United States and Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the EU."

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