Sengupta Amit

Wishing you all a happy and prosperous Poila Boishakh 🙏 Shubho Noboborsho.

Reports from early March 2026 indicate that Iranian strikes have successfully targeted and destroyed key components of the U.S. THAAD. Specifically the AN/TPY-2 radar, which is the eyes of the THAAD battery. The primary strike occurred at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Other air defense components, including an AN/FPS-132 early warning radar in Qatar and various Patriot systems in the UAE and Kuwait, were also reportedly damaged in the same wave of attacks. as of March 12, 2026, the Pentagon has reportedly begun moving THAAD components from South Korea to the Middle East to replenish these combat losses. During the same timeframe, a high-tech Chinese intelligence-gathering vessel Liaowang-1 is operating in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea. The ship reportedly went dark turned off its AIS tracking for five days before reappearing on March 9, 2026. There is a high possibility that the Chinese Spy ship is mapping the electronic battlefield in real-time. And who knows China may be sharing this tracking data including the positions of U.S. stealth aircraft and air defense batteries directly with Iran. But then, even Iran does have a growing fleet of satellites in orbit that it uses for intelligence and monitoring. Recently, U.S. CENTCOM said they have struck Iran's Space Command centers and ground control stations near Tehran to blind Iran by disrupting their ability to receive data from these satellites. As a result, Russia & China is providing Iran with high-resolution satellite imagery and electronic intelligence from their own satellites. Since their ground stations are in Russia & China, the U.S. cannot risk escalating this issue further with Russia & China.

India currently has about 25 days of crude oil reserves and another 25 days of petrol and diesel stock, which together gives roughly 50 days of fuel sufficiency. That’s a decent safety cushion for now given the situation worldwide. Because of the ongoing US/Israel – Iran tensions Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Iran’s strikes have also damaged energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, pushing Brent crude above $80 per barrel. About 60-65% of India's crude imports used to typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Now India is scouting for alternative suppliers. Russia has openly said it’s ready to support India with additional energy supplies if needed. However, increasing Russian oil imports could irritate the US again. Ideally what India could do is use Russian oil largely for domestic consumption, refine American crude, and export the refined products to Europe. But such large scale strategic planning never goes unnoticed in geopolitics. There’s always pressure, scrutiny and someone ready to challenge your move. Still, having 50 days of fuel cover gives India breathing space. And realistically speaking, this US/Israel - Iran issue may not drag on for months. US won't stay deeply engaged in the Middle East for too long. Iranian stockpiles have already been significantly depleted, though not completely.

After the recent joint missile strikes by Israel and US on Iran, PM Modi spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu and spoke about the regional situation and said that civilian safety should be the top priority. His tone appeared balanced and neutral. He then spoke with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed and strongly condemned the recent attacks on the UAE, offering condolences for the loss of lives. That statement clearly showed India's support for the UAE and criticism of the attacks linked to Iran. If you notice, PM Modi did not speak to President Trump, and neither he expressed grief or concern over reports of Ali Khamenei’s death. Because of this, India’s position can be seen as carefully balanced, and indirectly showing supportive nature towards Israel, the U.S., and Gulf countries, while staying formally neutral towards Iran’s current leadership. If the U.S. were to push for a regime change in Iran, which they will and a more pro-U.S. govt comes to power, Then, India’s neutral tone today could help in maintaining or rebuilding good relations with any future govt in Tehran. In simple terms, India seems to be playing it smart, avoiding strong commitments on one side while keeping doors open on all sides. This way, once tensions settle, India’s economy and strategic interests could benefit no matter how the situation evolves.

In simple terms, India seems to be playing it smart, avoiding strong commitments on one side while keeping doors open on all sides. This way, once tensions settle, India’s economy and strategic interests could benefit no matter how the situation evolves.

I feel like the USA won’t stay deeply involved in the Middle East regarding Iran, for too long. I also think big changes are coming inside Iran. US will install a Pro US Govt. In my view, the current Islamic system there might collapse soon, and the country could even return to its older pre-Islamic heritage like bringing back Zoroastrian cultural and ethical symbols as national identity. The possible return of Reza Pahlavi could be politically beneficial for the US, since he is seen as more aligned with the West. At the same time, his emphasis on Iran’s ancient, pre-Islamic identity could encourage a broader cultural reawakening.

The U.S. says it sank an Iranian warship near Chahbar Port and that Iran’s missiles never came close to the USS Abraham Lincoln. However, Iran is claiming that it fired ballistic missiles at the carrier. Both sides are telling very different stories, making it hard to know what’s true, much like the information warfare we’ve seen since the Russia-Ukraine War began. While reports about the death of Ali Khamenei are being treated as confirmed, but then much of the battlefield narrative feels shaped and controlled. We’re not watching this unfold live, we’re seeing what each side chooses to release. In today’s digital world, whoever controls the flow of information online often shapes global perception.