S2UndergroundWire

Concerning the damage itself, within the maritime community, a shaft seal failure at sea is an immediate threat to the vessel. This seal is essentially a large mechanical gasket which acts as a seal between the spinning propeller and the hull of the ship. The shaft seal allows for the propeller to spin freely, while also keeping seawater out of the vessel, and when it fails, it normally results in immediate catastrophic flooding in a compartment that is impossible to fully seal off (the engine room). This is not something that would be the result of hostile action or even sabotage, if the shaft seal did fail this would be a non-malicious catastrophic failure, but one which occurred at the worst possible time. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z August 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: U.S. MERCHANT MARINE VESSEL SINKING IN PACIFIC OCEAN DUE TO SHAFT SEAL FAILURE. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES NEW ECONOMIC WARFARE CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: President Trump announced a new economic offensive against Iran, aimed at leveling sanctions on nations which are working with Iran. In his post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that economic sanctions will be used against third-party nations which are providing financial aid to Iran, are engaged in oil smuggling, or otherwise are benefitting from Iran's current status within the region. Analyst Comment: Choosing to engage in an "ECONOMIC D-DAY" is probably an acknowledgement that, at present, military options are not likely to achieve the intended effect. If a front is being opened up on the economic side of the war, the worse case scenario is that it probably won't make the situation much worse in the short term. However, if this economic effort is genuine, this is a major indicator that the war is expected to last for a long time, as economic wars of attrition rarely resolve quickly. Pacific Ocean: Last night an incident was reported onboard the M/V SLNC YORK after a mechanical error resulted in a catastrophic shaft seal break approximately 1,100 nautical miles northeast of Saipan. An emergency distress call was transmitted and the crew abandoned ship due to the uncontrolled flooding in the engine room. Another merchant vessel, the M/T PACIFIC TANTAI rescued the crew from liferafts, and a US Navy Destroyer also responded to the scene to take on the crew. The vessel remains adrift as she sinks, and salvage crews are reportedly moving to the vessel to stabilize the ship in hopes of preventing her sinking. United Kingdom: This morning the Home Office published a pamphlet for migrants, informing them on how to not rape British citizens. The brochure informs asylum seekers that they cannot rape random people and that they cannot own slaves. Per the documentation, if they were to do so, they could (not will) go to prison. Analyst Comment: As one could probably expect, a laminated brochure is unlikely to have the same effectiveness as hanging violent criminals from lampposts, but the Home Office seems keen to give it a try anyway. -HomeFront- USA: Concerns remain constant concerning the rise in public officials using Flock cameras illegally. After the initial concerns with Flock itself became mainstream weeks ago, concerns have been growing regarding other similar companies such as Axon. Over the past few weeks dozens of police officers have been fired and arrested for misusing Flock/Axon sensor suites. Many of these cases of misuse involve everything from stalking exes, to interfering with investigations and evidence tampering. Earlier this month in Charlotte, North Carolina, one police officer was arrested after his drug-dealer friend asked him to run a license plate through the Flock database, to check if his buyer was an undercover cop (which he was). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The SLNC YORK was not a random cargo ship, she was a part of the Maritime Security Program within the U.S. Maritime Administration. This vessel was working under contract for the US Navy, and frequently carriers military cargo between the United States and US military bases within PACOM. At the time of her crew abandoning ship, her exact cargo is not known, but it was probably logistical supplies intended for PACOM. This vessel sinking (along with the cargo) will probably make the already dire logistical situation within PACOM and CENTCOM worse, simply due to the logistical shuffle that will be needed to replace that capability.

Concerning the alleged victims, a correction to yesterday's report is needed as the fatality in this case is not the same person who was previously convicted of murder. The victim was Vilisoni Angilau (aged 18), and Vilisoni Angilau (aged 33) was previously convicted of crimes related to gang affiliation. Same exact name, same exact area, same exact family, same exact affiliation with the Ward, but different people. Turns out, the 18-year-old who was killed yesterday is also affiliated with the Tongan Crips, as evidenced by confirmed gang members and shotcallers mourning his death on Facebook. Local Tongans are claiming the victim is not affiliated with the gang, but social media posts indicate this is not true. The reason for why this matters is due to the elevated potential for a gang war to kick off, if it hasn't done so already. Clearly local police thought the same at the time, as they rolled way harder than they needed to in order to protect the hospital. Gang violence is very likely to continue to escalate within Utah over the next few weeks, and this is going to affect more people than just those in the gang. When the only Level 1 Trauma Center for hundreds of miles is locked down because hordes of Tongan Crips are trying to break down the doors after a gang shooting, this becomes more of a substantial concern than just some random gang war. Even in the legendary gang epicenters around the country, local hospitals don't have to worry about literally being overrun as if they were a forward-deployed military base in a foreign land. But in Salt Lake City, this is now a genuine concern that is all brought about by a demographic that comprises less than one percent of the population. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z August 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES HALT TO DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS WITH IRAN. DUBAI CONFIRMS YESTERDAY'S MISSILE ATTACK ORIGINATED FROM IRAN. ISRAELIS STRIKE AIRBASE IN SYRIA. TAJIK NATIONAL FLEES MURDER CONVICTION IN UNITED STATES AFTER VIRGINIA ALLOWS HIM TO OBTAIN PASSPORT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Following yesterday's missile warnings in Dubai, the culprit of the missile attack was revealed to be not the Houthis, but Iran. Two ballistic missiles were launched from within Iran, with one impacting in the Gulf, and the other landing somewhere outside the UAE. Emirati officials have stated that the missiles were not intended for them, and that the missiles were attempting to target merchant vessels within the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the UAE has allegedly halted trade and financial transactions with Iran, until further notice. Analyst Comment: Prior to the war, Dubai was Tehran's gateway to the west, and served as a major hub for trade, but especially for banking. If the Emirs have indeed shut down Iran's access to financial markets, this will probably have more significant impact than it seems at first. Syria: Last night Israeli forces conducted airstrikes at Al Duhur Airbase, targeting the runway and several maintenance facilities at the airfield. Analyst Comment: This is a message to Turkey. Turkish forces have been at this airfield for a few months, trying to fix the airstrip enough for it to open once again, which would in turn allow for the recreation of the Syrian Air Force, but also another place for Turkish forces to run operations out of. The Israelis striking this runway is probably an effort to put the Syrians back in their box, and also inflame tensions with the Turks even more, to prevent their expansion into Israel's back yard. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation, the energy crisis continues to worsen as gas prices climb steadily higher. This morning, the national average for diesel rose to over $5.50, as reflected by the current global diesel shortage. This afternoon bond yields dropped after the Treasury Department announced that the US will be doubling the repurchases of debt. Washington D.C. - Yesterday President Trump stated that no diplomatic efforts with Iran are taking place, sharply reversing the months of prior rhetoric that the White House has become legendary for. Up until this statement, the official stance has been that indirect talks are occurring, and that Iran frequently calls the White House "wanting to make a deal". Yesterday's statement by President Trump is a very sharp reversal regarding the diplomatic efforts in the region. Virginia: Yesterday local authorities revealed that a Tajik man fled the United States last month following his detention in a mental facility. In 2019, Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda stabbed his landlord to death, but was found not guilty by reason of insanity in 2022. He was sentenced to detention in a mental facility, before being deemed to be a candidate for early release last year. While serving his sentence, he was allowed by the prosecution to visit the Tajik Embassy in Washington D.C. where he was allowed to obtain a passport for his home country of Tajikistan. He was also allowed to have prison vacation time, when he could have two-day vacations outside the detention facility. During one of these vacation slots on July 6th, Toshpulodzoda used his passport to flee the United States. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Utah, overnight more details have come to light regarding Monday's funeral shooting. The lead suspect at the moment is Afuhia Masiu Manatau, who pulled out a gun and attempted to kill an unidentified person at the funeral. At some point during the shootout, his son Tusi took his father's gun and continued to shoot at members of the Angilau family.

Concerning yesterday's shootings, posts on social media indicate that other family members of yesterday's deceased have been observed flashing Tongan Crip Gang signs and generally confirming their gang affiliation, specifically within the Tongan Wards. On Facebook, most of the Salt Lake Tongans don't wish each other a "Happy B-Day"...they change it to "C-Day" because the letter "B" is too closely affiliated with their arch rivals...the Bloods. This is a callback to their Inglewood origins...many of the TCG's rivals are much the same as in California. The Rose Park Bloods are their main external adversary within Salt Lake, as both gangs have been expanding into each other's turf. In the same area, the Rose Park Taliban (a gang formed from the children of refugees from the Middle East) also maintains some presence, and is allied with the Bloods. Back in March, a Rose Park Taliban member tried to murder a liquor store employee in Taylorsville (near Tongan Crip territory), so gang violence in southwest Salt Lake specifically from these gangs is a constant. As yesterday's "victim" had previously killed a member of the Baby Regulators gang, it's possible that this was a revenge killing that was unrelated to the other Angilau who's funeral was being held at the time. As a result of this complicated web of alliances and relationships between extremely violent gangs, more violence is expected. Despite the grass skirts, barbeques, and disarming smiles, most of these people are killers, and the killing is only likely to escalate. Since one person was killed during the funeral shooting, the funeral for that person will undoubtedly be another opportunity for another shooting, as the cycle of violence and vengeance continues. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Intercepted radio traffic from 911 dispatch also confirms that the reason for the overwhelming police response at the hospital, was due to the Tongan Crip Gang attempting to breach the entrance to the Emergency department. At least one employee was assaulted and wounded in the ER, and a large crowd of Tongans also attempted to break through the Emergency Room entrance on the south side of Unit 4. After this breach attempt, local authorities responded in force, with SWAT officers responding immediately to reinforce the hospital and prevent the facility from being overrun. Snipers were deployed to the rooftops, and at least two Bearcat armored vehicles were posted at the Emergency Department to secure a perimeter around the facility. Concerning future threats, the circumstances of yesterday's funeral shooting are still unclear, with much of the eyewitness testimony being verifiably false as gang members seek to cover up the crime. The main question is whether or not this will result in a wider gang war, and right now the answer to that question is not so clear. The Tongan Crip Gang is known to engage in mutual combat within the gang itself, as rival factions settle internal disputes with violence and murder. Funerals are a common way for hostile TCG factions to meet up, and tensions flare. However, the Tongans also have many rivals locally which might also be inclined to stoke up a gang war. The TCG originally had a foothold in Inglewood, California, where the gang achieved it's extremely brutal reputation. After expanding this foothold to Salt Lake City, the TCG became one of the most legendarily violent gangs in the entire nation. Though small in numbers, they make up for their lack of footsoldiers with sheer violence. Even so, many locals prefer to call them "nice" and ignore this brutality, due to the affiliation this gang has within facilities owned by the LDS Church. This gang is known to murder people randomly without a second thought, and despite Tongans being less than one percent of the population of Utah, they make up over 13% of all gang member affiliation in the region. For those who want to make the argument that "not all Tongans" are causing problems, unfortunately in Salt Lake City specifically, this does not appear to be the case based on the case history and preponderance of evidence. During the Tongan Crip funeral murder at an LDS Ward back in January...not a single churchgoer came forward to name the killer. 100% of the congregants at the Ward where the murder took place, refused to speak to the police or provide a statement regarding what they saw. Police set up an anonymous hotline to protect witnesses, but among the hundreds of Tongans that witnessed that shooting, not a single person came forward to testify and the shooters were eventually charged based on evidence of the murder plans being found on their phones. Even the small handful of Tongans who are not documented gang members are extremely loyal to tribal allegiances; quite literally every single Tongan with a social media presence in Salt Lake County has expressed support for their guy who attempted to murder a gas station clerk with a shotgun. No one within this diaspora has condemned the actions of the man who's funeral even resulted in further bloodshed. The Tongan community has not tried to distance themselves from the frequent murders that are conducted within their areas, and most of the Tongan Wards within Salt Lake close ranks around those who commit violent murders.

//The Wire//2300Z August 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: KINETIC TARGETING CONTINUES WITHIN MIDDLE EAST AS HOUTHIS LAUNCH MISSILES TOWARD DUBAI. TONGAN CRIP THREAT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN SALT LAKE CITY.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Iran struck two more ships in the Strait of Hormuz last night, continuing the trend of the past couple of weeks. This morning, the UKMTO retroactively admitted to a merchant vessel being struck on August 15th, with the ship sustaining damage and one crew casualty. This afternoon, Houthi forces conducted a ballistic missile strike on the UAE, with missile warnings being issued in Dubai, for the first time since May. No locals reported witnessing any interception, and government officials stated that one missile splashed down in the Gulf, and another landed outside their territory. Analyst Comment: On the rhetoric front, this morning President Trump continued claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz, posting a graphic which claims the Strait is now U.S. territory. Even though waterways traditionally can't be claimed as land territory, and while this may just be a more lighthearted meme, at the other end of the spectrum this could be more serious. If the White House is indeed serious about making a territorial declaration of some kind, this could be an effort to move the goalposts to allow for the use of more substantial weapons. If Hormuz is America, then the US can claim that Iran is attacking the homeland. Of course, this logic is a stretch at best, but it's exactly the kind of reasoning that would make sense for the White House to rely on at this stage in the war. -HomeFront- Utah: One suspect has been arrested in conjunction with yesterday's events in Salt Lake City. Afuhia Masiu Manatau was arrested for his role in yesterday's shooting at the Tongan funeral in Kearns. During the funeral, a fight broke out among the congregation, between his 17-year-old son, and several others. During the fight, Manatau gave a firearm to his son, which resulted in the son attempting to murder the others. Manatau's son (the shooter) was shot in the chest during the engagement, and Manatau himself has been arrested. Analyst Comment: Concerning casualties, so far one fatality was reported as a result of the funeral shooting. The victim has been identified as Vilisoni (Soni) Angilau, a confirmed Tongan Crip who was recently released from prison after murdering a member of a rival gang in 2013. Soni Angilau's immediate relative, Naisa Angilau, was also recently released from prison for a completely different shooting as well, after he attempted to kill a gas station clerk in 2009. Of note, Soni's brother Siale also met a violent end as he was also shot and killed during a high-profile shooting that took place inside the courtroom during his trial. Siale Angilau was shot and killed by federal Marshals after attempting to stab a witness to death during his trial for racketeering back in 2014. All of these family members have an extensive presence on social media, and all self-identify as Tongan Crips. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Utah, additional details are helpful for understanding how serious yesterday's shooting actually was, especially considering the long history of similar murders. Despite assurances to the contrary, Intermountain Medical Center remained locked down throughout the evening last night, as the threats to the hospital remained constant. Many non-essential employees were escorted out of the hospital by SWAT, and patients' medical procedures were canceled due to the security threat. Intermountain Public Relations officials issued statements claiming that everything was fine and that there was no threat to the hospital, however employees within the hospital confirmed that these statements were not true.

Nevertheless, nobody wants to ruffle any feathers when a faith-based organization is involved, even if that organization is knowingly and deliberately allowing a gang to operate within their facilities, so these shootings (but especially the Tongan Crip angle) will continue to be ignored by local media, politicians, and Church leadership alike. However, both today's shooting, and the prior one in January took place in close proximity to schools, where children could have been wounded or killed by the gunfights in the parking lots, so this is not merely an internal Church problem. Further investigation will be needed to truly determine how widespread the problem is, but this is probably more significant than most people realize, and pretending everything is fine is resulting in clear and present dangers being allowed to threaten innocent citizens. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Analyst Comment: These shootings are directly linked to a different shooting. This was the funeral for Ofa'tangikivaha Angilau, a Tongan man who was neutralized by Good Samaritans two weeks ago. On August 7th, Angilau attempted to purchase alcohol without showing ID at the Holiday Oil gas station in Riverton. After the clerk denied his purchase, he left the store and returned with a shotgun, and attempted to murder the clerk. Before Angilau could bring the shotgun to bear, he was promptly shot dead by two different bystanders in the store. His funeral was this morning, and due to the shooting breaking out during the funeral, this retroactively indicates that Angilau was probably affiliated with the Tongan Crip Gang. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For wider context, the Tongan community has a major foothold in Salt Lake County, and have been running operations inside LDS Wards throughout the city for some time. The LDS Church has organized several different Tongan Stakes (districts) which serve as the administrative hierarchy solely for immigrants from the Pacific island of Tonga. Around 13,000 Tongans live throughout the Salt Lake County area, which is roughly a quarter of the entire Tongan population in the United States, and as a result the LDS Church has provided substantial resources for this community, including a few dozen cultural centers and dedicated Wards just for Tongans. At these facilities, no English is spoken and even the websites are in the Tongan language. Over time, the Tongan Crip Gang has emerged as a major threat to the local area. In many cases, the Tongan Wards within Salt Lake City are not really houses of worship, but actually safehouses for the Tongan Crip Gang, as demonstrated by gang colors being placed all around these structures, only gang members attending these wards, and the frequent shootings at these facilities. Due to the gang seeking refuge within LDS churches...in the heartland of where the LDS Church was founded...this rarely gets mentioned by local mainstream media sources, which in many cases have either been financially motivated (or even outright ordered) to ignore this major gang threat. Most outsiders are rather shocked to learn that a violent gang can not just occupy houses of worship, but be invited in to use the facilities to continue their criminal enterprises. But that's what's been happening in Salt Lake City for a long time, and as unpleasant as it is, this must be acknowledged as the body count keeps rising. The Tongan Crip problem has become so bad that local police pre-stage at Tongan funerals, because they assess with a high degree of certainty that there is going to be a shootout at some point. This morning's shooting is the second shooting this year involving a funeral for a Tongan Crip Gang member; back in January, nearly the exact same event took place. Tongan Crips were having a funeral for one of their leaders, and a rival gang showed up to conduct a shooting in the parking lot. This morning's shooting occurred under nearly identical circumstances. Also during both shootings, upwards of a dozen officers were already staged at these Wards with rifles, prepared for the active shooting, knowing that a small arms engagement would be occurring at some point.

//The Wire//2300Z August 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS STAGNANT. WHITE HOUSE SIGNALS SHIFT AWAY FROM PACOM AS PRESIDENT TRUMP ATTEMPTS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA. TONGAN CRIP GANG SHOOTING REPORTED AT FUNERAL IN SALT LAKE CITY.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation remains much the same, no major changes over the weekend. Iran did not conduct any major strikes over the past few days, and the Houthis have also not engaged any Saudi oil refineries since last week. Otherwise the situation remains as before. South Korea: Over the weekend President Trump announced a significant change to the American diplomatic position regarding the Korean Peninsula. Due to South Korea not participating in hostilities during the Gulf War, President Trump has ordered the United States to reduce American participation in ROK military exercises. Analyst Comment: This is a big deal, but one that has been boiling since the Gulf War began. Pinning American diplomatic efforts to whether or not nations supported us during the war highlights the priority the White House is placing on the conflict. Supplies and missile defenses have been taken from PACOM for months now, and this halting of joint exercises with South Korea is the latest development in the de-prioritization of all operational theaters in order to support the war. Similarly, the other effect of de-prioritizing South Korea, is to improve relations with North Korea, which in turn might lead to another round of diplomatic talks soon. -HomeFront- Michigan: More details have come to light regarding a series of small arms attacks carried out a few days ago. On Friday, authorities responded to a private residence in Missaukee County, where a mass shooting had occurred. 3x deceased victims and 1x severely wounded victim were located at the residence, with the suspect having fled the scene. At the scene, the immediate investigation resulted in the discovery of another fatality located at a different residence adjacent to the initial shooting site. The suspect was identified as Chad Hickman, and a large-scale manhunt was conducted throughout the area. Some time later, Hickman's vehicle was located near Whitlock Lake, where the remains of one additional victim and the deceased suspect were discovered. Analyst Comment: So far, no motive has been disclosed for this attack, but right now this looks like a domestic incident. The suspect's sister is reportedly among the casualties, and Hickman had also recently been involved in a messy divorce. Utah: This morning a riot and subsequent mass shooting was reported at an LDS Ward in Salt Lake City. Local authorities initially responded to the 13th Ward in Kearns, after a street fight involving 80+ people broke out during a Tongan cultural event and funeral. At some point during the fray, several people were shot as a state of mutual combat broke out between suspected members of the Tongan Crip Gang, and local rivals. After the initial shooting at the funeral, the wounded suspected gang members were transported to Intermountain Medical Center, where another skirmish possibly broke out in the parking area. Several reports of shots-fired were issued, and the hospital was locked down throughout the afternoon. No details have been provided on this second incident, or the status of the reported shootings at the hospital. However, ambulances are being diverted away from Intermountain Health, and armored police vehicles are reportedly parked at the facility providing security.

This week's intel update is out! This week, the insanity continues both at home and overseas. The growing fuel crisis at home is beginning to increase in severity, the war overseas is settling in for the long haul...and moves are being made to prepare for another escalation. https://youtu.be/eKrOG-1yQDA

Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, several logistical and leadership shakeups have settled in throughout the region. Within Iran, six new commanders have been officially promoted to new positions throughout the General Staff, most of whom are younger hardliners who are of the mind to continue the war. These promotions include Ahmad Vahidi, who has been promoted to the Commander in Chief of the IRGC. On the American side, the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN CSG is planned to move off station when she is replaced by the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CSG within a few days. This relief comes a few days after reports emerged regarding the deteriorating conditions onboard the LINCOLN. Over the past few days, reports of multiple sailors within this strike group attempting to take their own lives have hit the media, which CENTCOM has flatly denied. However, one day after these reports started circulating, the WASHINGTON was observed steaming through the Strait of Malacca. The LINCOLN was officially last reported in port in Guam on December 11th, 2025 and has not conducted a single port call since that time. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z August 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE SHOT DOWN OVER LATVIA. WASHINGTON CSG STEAMING WEST TO REPLACE LINCOLN CSG IN ARABIAN SEA. IRANIAN STRIKES CONTINUE IN HORMUZ. WHITE HOUSE AUTHORIZES CIVILIAN COMPANIES TO BEGIN OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: This morning at least one strike on a merchant vessel was reported in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO published two separate nearly-identical reports under two different reporting numbers, 111-26 and 112-26, both of which took place in the same area. Analyst Comment: Iranian sources claim that these vessels were struck by submarine drones, which (if true) would be the first kind of attack conducted so far during this war. Iran absolutely has this capability, though it is probably more limited to the areas closer to the Iranian coastline. The UKMTO chart provided for the location of both attacks does plot the targeting effort closer to the Iranian coastline than most other attacks, but so far no comment has been made regarding the attack method yet. Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon another series of strikes was reported between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with the latter conducting another missile strike on an Aramco refinery/processing facility in Najran City, near the Yemeni border. A large fire was reported at this facility following this strike, and Saudi forces have conducted various strikes around Yemen in retaliation. Latvia: This morning NATO aircraft shot down a suspected drone over the Balvi region, near the village of Rugaji. Latvia stated that the incident was a stray drone that entered their airspace due to Russian electronic warfare measures. Only one drone was detected, which was engaged by fighter aircraft. Analyst Comment: This is a tacit admission that the drone was probably Ukrainian, continuing the now long-standing trend of off-course drones entering the airspace of third-party nations. With both Russia and Ukraine sending drone waves comprising of hundreds of drones during each attack, the high failure rate on both sides has resulted in dozens of runaway drone incidents throughout the continent over the past few years. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Late last night, President Trump signed an Executive Memorandum aimed at combatting cybercrime. The very first section of this order is to effectively privatize offensive cyberattacks on foreign actors. The order outlines a 60-day time limit for establishing a deconfliction process to coordinate attacks carried out by private companies versus those conducted by military forces. The memorandum specifically states that operations resulting in Critical Outcomes (i.e. operations which kill people or are classified as Use of Force) are not authorized. Analyst Comment: This EO is a big deal, as it essentially is a Letter of Marque for private companies to conduct military actions against foreign nationstates in the cyber realm. While this seems cutting-edge and forward thinking in terms of the ever-evolving battlespace...this removes a lot of protections for civilian companies when it comes to warfare. When civilian entities are authorized to engage in offensive military action against a foreign nation, they become lawful combatants. The caveat which states that companies can't kill people is not likely to result in much difference to any actor targeted under this program, and as it stands, any company that participates in this order will be a valid military target which will be targeted by foreign adversaries. In short, if companies want to play ball, they can now do so, but major cyberattacks on civilian targets are going to skyrocket over the next few weeks. -----END TEARLINE-----

As the energy crisis is firmly an emergency situation at this point, the biggest impact to the American people right now will take the form of Diesel prices rising higher, until eventual shortages begin. When the shortages will begin, is anyone's guess, but since the war has dragged on for so long, the second and third order effects are already well underway. Right now, the problem is not just a shortage of crude...it's also a problem of getting the right type of crude, to the right type of refineries. The complicated mess of secondary and tertiary disruptions has resulted in bottlenecks along the whole process, and since Hormuz, the BAM, Suez, and the Black Sea are all negatively affected in some manner by effectively three wars, roughly 20% of all global maritime diesel exports are effectively cut off. As a result, the biggest immediate problem for the U.S. is refining diesel at the scale needed to avoid shortages, which is why many people have been surprised to see diesel prices starting to creep up again over the past couple of weeks nationwide. The US can turn the tap and drain the SPR all we want, but that will not solve the immediate problem of the dwindling diesel supply in the short term. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z August 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EXPLOSION REPORTED AT ITALIAN MUNITIONS FACTORY. WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY RESIGNS. IEA REPORT CONFIRMS OIL CRISIS INCREASES IN SEVERITY WORLDWIDE. PRESIDENT PUTIN VISITS CONTROVERSIAL ISLAND CHAIN IN FAR EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Italy: This morning an explosion was reported at the KNDS munitions factory near the town of Colleferro. This facility produced artillery rounds and solid-fuel propellants for the Ukrainian military. No casualties have been reported, as the explosion took place during the summertime vacation season, when nobody was working at the factory. The cause of the blast has not yet been disclosed. Analyst Comment: Industrial accidents happen all the time, but it's not everyday that a factory making explosives for Ukraine suffers such a catastrophic blast, with no prior warning, and with nobody actually at the plant. Reading between the lines, most assumptions are that this might have been malign action related to the war in Ukraine, however nothing has been released regarding that theory yet. Far East: Overnight, Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted a surprise visit to the Kuril Islands, an island chain north of Japan which has a hotly-contested history originating back with World War Two. President Putin visited Iturup Island for the first time, and mostly conducted tours of the facilities, including a fish processing factory, a school, and a hospital. During the visit, Putin specifically mentioned the Japanese sanctions on Russia, which were imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, stating that Russia has no grievances against Japan. Putin also directly mentioned the fact that in Japan's latest military publications, Russia is classified as a source of major threat, which Putin denied. Analyst Comment: This sparsely-populated island chain is just north of Japan, and was initially gifted to the Soviet Union during the 1945 Yalta agreement (though Japan disputes the legality of this). In practice, Russia dominates the four main islands, and a few dozen of the smaller uninhabited islands. Putin visiting a small island north of Japan is a major signal that Russia is interested in what's going on in their backyard, and that their far eastern regions are certainly not forgotten. This visit was deliberately intended to pressure Japan to reexamine their sanctions, as well as to serve as a not-so-subtle reminder, that mainland Russia is much closer to Tokyo than the mainland United States is. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her resignation yesterday evening, which will come into effect at the end of the month. The reason for her resignation has been stated to be personal, to spend time with her family. Her replacement has not been officially announced, and most mainstream media is speculating that a replacement will not be named until after the midterms. Analyst Comment: The real reason for her resignation is probably for personal reasons, but vastly more personal reasons than anyone knows. The tabloids are running some rather juicy theories and rumors at the moment, most of which are related to the continuing scandal originating from the Air Force One plane swap incident in Turkey last month, and the details of who was selected to join the President onboard the covert plane...and who was left on the decoy. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, the International Energy Agency's report for the month of August was published, which provides more fidelity on the energy production throughout the Middle East. Based on the IEA's report, the situation is dire and now the sheer lack of oil is a problem. Even with all of the efforts to open the Strait, and with the brief ceasefire which resulted in a surge of tankers (before the Strait closed again), we still have a global shortage of 8.3 million bbl/day. This is roughly 8% of the entire planet's oil demand, which remains offline due to the war.

Where we go from here is hard to say, but the situation has been slow to develop. If a person is watching a car crash in slow motion, and it takes 6 months for the impact, people get bored. This appears to be what's happened as this war has dragged on for almost half a year. This has resulted in complacency, even though the overall situation is incredibly serious. The United States has continued to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a breakneck pace, to the point that we are approaching the physical limits of how much oil can be withdrawn from storage. This oil is not really being processed within the US, but rather sold on the international market so as to keep the price of oil artificially low globally. Last week, the SPR dropped to 298.7 million barrels of oil in storage, all total. This is the first time that the SPR has dipped this low since the 1980's, when the demand was 20-30% lower than it is today. More broadly, this is also a major milestone in terms of how close we're getting to tank bottom. There is debate regarding how low the SPR can be drawn down. A common figure over the years has been that the US can theoretically drain the SPR down to 70 million barrels. There is also a legal floor as well, with 42 USC § 6241 mandating that the SPR cannot be drawn below 252 million barrels for national security reasons. Of course, this is a law that can be reliably ignored by both the White House and Congress itself, but it is a number to work from...and we're getting close to it. Last year the Government Accountability Office conducted a large-scale study on the SPR, which found that due to infrastructure degradation over the years, the entire system can only pump out a fraction of what it was previously capable of. The report did not explicitly state the magic number of how low we can go, but the report did state that regardless of where the bottom of the tank actually is, we can only pump it out at a rate that is 61% of what it was designed for. This means that not only are our tanks scraping bottom, but we are also limited in how fast we can drain what's left. Like a broken record, the story has constantly repeated since the war began...demand remains the same, but supply is down. The basics of that fact can only be concealed, manipulated, and talked-down for so long before supply itself runs out. As the SPR cruises past the 300 million barrel milestone, more motivation is stacking up to re-enter the diplomatic phase once again, before the energy crisis gets much worse. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z August 12, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: OIL CRISIS CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AS STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE DROPS BELOW 300 MILLION BARRELS. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS COMPLICATED, SHIPPING REMAINS STAGNANT. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE RESULTS IN MURDERS AT DAYCARE IN MINNESOTA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Around the region the war remains as before, with no major strikes being reported overnight. The war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has continued to increase in complexity following the Houthi strikes on the Jazan refinery last week. Saudi Arabia has stepped up efforts to fund and supply the official Yemeni government, which was outcast by the Houthis capturing and holding the capital city years ago. Analyst Comment: For the past decade, the Saudis have tried to undermine the Houthi control of Yemen by funding the exiled government forces which still control pockets of influence around the country. A few days ago, a strike was reported in the city of Mocha in Yemen, which was originally reported as being of Saudi origin. Turns out, it was the Houthis themselves striking the sector of the city that still remains in government control, targeting a collection of Saudi advisors which were working with the Yemeni government. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning a suspicious device was discovered in the vicinity of the Engine Company 20 fire station. One device comprised of a thermos container with wires wrapped around it was discovered by authorities, prompting a lockdown of the area. EOD responded to the scene and stated that the device was not a threat. Minnesota: This morning a stabbing attack was reported at a child care facility in Hopkins. Local authorities state that two adults and one child were stabbed at Brown Bear Childcare, a private residence converted to a daycare. All three individuals are reported deceased. Throughout the day, official sources have indicated that this was a domestic violence incident between the owners of the daycare, which resulted in one of the adults murdering the other, before murdering their child, and then themselves. The attack was witnessed by six other children, as well as a parent who had arrived at the residence to drop off their child. Analyst Comment: This attack took place at 236 Tyler Ave North. The business itself is registered with the state and has an active childcare license, with no violations or concerns being readily available online. Reviews are very positive, and the business appeared to be a small and wholesome daycare run out of a private residence. Prior to the murders this morning, this address had been listed on a local garage sale page. The listing claiming that the daycare had been scheduled to close at the end of the month, but how (or if) this fits in is unclear at the moment. As a result, this horrifically brutal attack is very out of the ordinary for Hopkins, and further analysis will be required to determine why this happened. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Concerning the impact of the Gulf War on global energy markets, the situation is still desperate. Oil transits through Hormuz are very minimal, with the NAVCENT-run reporting sources no longer publicly disclosing all of the Iranian strikes on tanker vessels. Many observers visually seeing a burning hull on the horizon, or crude oil washing ashore, is about as "confirmed" as it can get, and over the past few weeks several strikes have taken place that have not been reported by the UKMTO. In terms of what this is doing to the oil markets, Hormuz is back to very minimal oil flows. The constant Houthi targeting down in the Red Sea region has also resulted in the Saudi's cutting production at many oil terminals and processing facilities, and the Omanis are quietly trying to export more oil from their terminals which bypass the Strait...efforts which get derailed when a tanker gets struck by a drone/cruise missle.

But because a level of tension that surpasses the height of the Cold War has become normalized, the general population barely notices. As long as Netflix works and Doritos are on store shelves, the fact that the United States government has rapidly increased steps to prepare for major, nationstate-level attacks within the homeland will continue to go unnoticed by most. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Many people who are not familiar with the world of counterterrorism may think this is a super cool, James Bond-like operation that fooled those pesky journalists. However, this incident proves that a clear and present danger to the President existed, and was significant enough to warrant extreme measures. At the time, the White House claimed that the switch to a different plane was conducted out of an abundance of caution. Now, we find out that he was actually secretly switched to a third plane, and smuggled into that plane in a catering van. From the perspective of executive security, placing the principle in unorthodox situations like this to ensure security is a last-ditch method...a tactic that is utilized when the danger isreal enough to outweigh any inconvenience to the protectee. The Secret Service resorting to cramming the President in the back of a catering van is a tactic that has been used in the past, but only under extreme circumstances. Bill Clinton allegedly used this trick top avoid the press during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and Joe Biden was also suspected of having used this tactic when he had trouble climbing the AF1 staircase a few years ago. As it stands, President Trump's use of this technique is one of the first public uses for security reasons. Perhaps the most entertaining aspect to the story is that President Trump left the media on the plane that was threatened with being shot down. Most of these journalists, even in retrospect, don't seem to realize that they were they were bait. More broadly, this incident is yet another peek behind the curtain regarding the shocking levels of security that President Trump is now surrounded by. A few days ago President Trump was spotted playing golf mere feet away from an Avenger Surface-to-Air Missile defense system, which had been set up near the fairway of Trump's golf course in Bedminster while the President played a few rounds. Similarly, a few months ago, the President quietly began having Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft holding station near him at all times, just in case enemy fighter jets or cruise missiles enter the airspace. To be sure, this security is very likely necessary, but therein lies the problem: If the President now requires a SAM system to be parked mere feet away from him during an ad hoc trip that only takes a few hours...this is indicative of how serious the threats are within the homeland. Even the notoriously paranoid Vladimir Putin, who got his start in the KGB and who's bedroom in the Kremlin has been targeted (so far unsuccessfully) by Ukrainian drones, doesn't travel around with an AWACS aircraft at all times. This is also very unlikely to be a case of President Trump himself being scared, and fortifying his surroundings as his predecessor did. President Trump is not a military man, and he would not have known to ask for a SAM system, and it's highly unlikely that Trump even knows that an AWACS follows him around everywhere now. Unfortunately, all of these extremely substantial security practices are probably not an overreaction, but likely a response to legitimate and very specific threats. What's more, the security practices that we visibly observe are not the countermeasures that would be effective against the standard lone-wolf terrorist or the standard variety of screeching lunatic who might want to target the President. These countermeasures are only for countering nationstate-level threats. In Turkey, for instance, the only entities that could have targeted President Trump's plane are national-level actors. Similarly, the use of an Avenger SAM system implies that the threat might be so quick to materialize, that the standard Combat Air Patrol that is mere minutes away...might not be fast enough of a response. If any other President had been observed chipping the ball onto the green with a SAM system parked in the rough just off the fairway...the American people would be panic buying cases of water and digging a bunker in their back yard by now.

//The Wire//1700Z August 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING LAST MONTH'S SECURITY INCIDENT INVOLVING AIR FORCE ONE. MULTIPLE OIL SPILLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD AROUND PERSIAN GULF AND ARABIAN SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight the targeting of merchant shipping continued, with both Iranian and American strikes on commercial vessels. Iran struck an oil tanker sometime over the past 24 hours, which resulted in an oil spill which washed up on the shores of Qeshm island this morning. In the Gulf of Oman, the United States struck a different merchant vessel for violating the American blockade. Analyst Comment: Similarly, a separate oil spill has continued to expand in Omani waters, after unclear circumstances (i.e. some sort of attack) led to an explosion onboard the M/T CAROLINE BEZENGI two months ago. Since that time, this vessel has been adrift until she ran aground in an Omani nature preserve. This morning Oman announced that the subsequent oil spill now covers roughly 150 square miles. Red Sea/HOA: The Houthis struck another vessel in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait last night. Analyst Comment: Locals claim this vessel was the M/V TIHAMAH a smaller regional containership that the Houthis had suspected of carrying out weapons shipments from Saudi Arabia, to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. If this is true, this would not be surprising, but every ship that gets struck in this Strait increases apprehension among commercial shipping companies. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, more details were released regarding the security incident affecting Air Force One during President Trump's visit to Turkey last month. At the time, a brief scandal emerged after President Trump switched from the newer Air Force One to the older airframe, due to an unidentified security incident of some kind. More specifically, the threat involved the newer Air Force One airframe allegedly not having sufficient missile defense systems, due to having been pressed into service too quickly for the appropriate countermeasures to be installed. However yesterday, more of the truth came out. President Trump actually pulled a double-switch. Instead of boarding the older legacy Air Force One, the Secret Service used a catering van to covertly move the President to an Air Force C-32A (one of the administrative backups that frequently accompanies AF1). From there, both aircraft flew to the United Kingdom (with President Trump's actual aircraft flying completely blacked out and not emitting any radio signals), where the President transitioned back to the newer Air Force 1 airframe for the trip back to the United States.