Ernst Journal 🦇🔊
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Welcome to my Journal. My name is Ernst, and I am Web3 Advisor and filmmaker. Here you will find me sharing posts about crypto/markets/geo/macro/AI and something abstract. Our chat - https://t.me/defi_travelers
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频道帖子
The correction is likely over (unless I am wrong).
My congratulations if you are still here.
Now - 10 days of the chop within 115K - 117K zone and fly into 130K highs with a small euphoria season (November)
Invalidation - BTC dropping sub 110K and ETH falling under 3650
And as always, f*ck crypto
| 2 | 115K - 117K before any significant reversal.
And at least 10 more days of the pain before any improvements. | 84 |
| 3 | Funny to realize that on June 18, 2025, I made this chart (link) as a reminder for myself to take some profits whenever the BTC.D will reach the 57% zone.
Did I take the profits at that zone? Damn not. Because it's "never enough". Typical trading trap, which is called " greed"
Another lesson is to stick with your predefined plan, while not reacting to others' opinions nor sentiment vibes around you whatever it takes. | 110 |
| 4 |  A new ideal plan for the #BTC.D scenario. | 102 |
| 5 | During today's dip, I made DCA into
$LISTA - $0.43
$CRV - $0.715
$ASTER - $1.6
$VIRTUAL - $1.04
$CAKE - $3.6
$STBL - $0.22
$XPL - 0.74
$PEPE - limit order ($0.8)
This is the final DCA for me in this cycle, lower prices might offer even bigger Rewards, but at the same time, they might bring even more risks, in case the altcoin market will never bounce and we will witness the true bear market.
At some point, you should ask yourself, are you going to feed the casino endlessly you should just stop. | 100 |
| 6 | The chances of retesting BTC 115K/ ETH 4000 are rising, so plan your risks accordingly for the next 10 days. | 99 |
| 7 |  没有文字... | 109 |
| 8 | #market_thoughts
I’ve been thinking a lot about the current situation in the markets. Although there’s a major consensus on crypto Twitter that Q4 2025 is likely to be the top, we’re currently seeing Russell 2000 breaking through highs, BTC breaking through highs (but still lagging), metals like silver, platinum, and gold ($XAU) reaching new all-time highs daily. Basically, everything is breaking through the highs, even the dollar is bouncing, at the same time, which is ridiculous. The only thing lagging right now are the #ALTS.
My current plan: I expect around 10 more days of pain for alts, followed by a rally from late October to late November. It might even be an extreme rally because if there’s pain in the next 10 days, everyone will assume there’s no rally ahead - and that’s usually when it comes. Hopefully, we’ll see a risk-on phase after the rate cuts in October, some relief, and also the end of the government shutdown.
According to consensus, there’s an 80% chance that the shutdown will end after the 20th of October, and I agree with that. Once the shutdown ends, we’ll likely start receiving ETF approvals for altcoins like XRP, LTC, and others - and that could trigger a short but sharp altcoin rally.
Gold is also expected to correct soon, and whenever that happens, BTC usually gets its moment because it’s currently oversold compared to gold. Risk-on assets like Russell 2000 and small-cap stocks should also get a boost - and since Ethereum often follows Russell 2000, that gives me confidence.
So, TLDR. 10 more days of pain, then roughly one month of pump. By late November, I’ll likely trigger my TPs and observe what’s next. It’s quite possible that between late October and late November, we’ll see extreme moves. If that happens, Ethereum could break through $5,000, and Bitcoin could push past $130,000. That might be the cycle top, especially if it aligns with record inflows into BTC and ETH ETF's.
My realistic target for BTC.D remains 54%, with an optimistic one at 50%. Of course, there’s always a risk that we won’t get an altcoin rally at all - but I think that’s just a trap. If Bitcoin drops to around $115K, Ethereum could revisit $4K, with alts falling another 20–30%. Hopefully, that won’t happen, but if it does, I see it as the final capitulation before a bullish November.
We saw a similar setup last October and also in 2023 - the first half of October started bullish, then reversed bearish, followed by a strong rally from late October into November. Historically, that’s been the best time for crypto.
So let’s hope for the best but stay realistic. Alts might still be down here, but if Bitcoin keeps rewriting highs and Ethereum pushes higher, there’s still a good chance for an altcoin rally - even if it won’t be a long-lasting one. | 115 |
| 9 |  $ENA update
Round 1 went quite well, and right now it feels like we are preparing for the Round 2 rally.
Targets - $1/$1.2/$1.5 | 132 |
| 10 |  Attaching more PA/FA analysis on $STBL with the new chart (4H).
https://x.com/Ernst_Leyn/status/1974522904403653084 | 188 |
| 11 | Gm, everyone.
Expecting alts to accelerate sooner than later (either from mid-October or early November)
Even 1-2 weeks of aggressive pumping across the board will be enough to grow everything with +200% - +400% returns or even higher.
I do not expect to have a sustainable rally for altcoins, rather something quick but aggressive.
Either way, I am mentally preparing to take profits at my targets and place some low-leverage short bids.
SPX - overheated
Nasdaq - overheated
Gold - overheated
Silver - overheated
Russel 2000 - breaking out
VIX (volatility index) - all-time low
Crypto - still more space for growth.
Eventually, the macro economy is going to correct, and we do not know when it's going to happen.
In Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, but we need to be prepared for the flash crash that is coming later. And ultimately, it will come. | 198 |
| 12 |  $STBL setup
M.C - $170M mc/ FDV - $3B mc
"STBL is building Stablecoin 2.0, where principal and yield are separated, allowing real-world assets (RWAs) to stay liquid and productive. By depositing approved RWAs as collateral, users can mint $USST, a spendable stablecoin that unlocks onchain liquidity without sacrificing returns. Alongside, they receive $YLD, which captures the underlying yield directly for the holder."
Backed by Tether team ($USDT stablecoin). Narratives - #RWA, #Stablecoin
Entry - $0.34
DCA - $0.22
TP - $1
nfa, dyor
https://dropstab.com/coins/stbl | 191 |
| 13 | https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1972692373168898365?s=46
Are we ready to accept this new reality with robots and AI? | 209 |
| 14 |  The markets likely to reverse into mid-late October
105K/3600
And SPX 6200
Till then, it’s time to focus on something else. | 290 |
| 15 | Welcome to the "Big Front-Run" mode driven by the 4Y cycles narrative.
Everyone is aware of the seasonality and positive(green) Q4.
Everyone is aware of the upcoming possible returns.
Everyone is trying to front-run each other.
Everyone is trying to be smarter than the other. | 342 |
| 16 | The volatility mode is on. | 303 |
| 17 | 3 hours left before the main and the most anticipated financial event of 2025. | 305 |
| 18 |  Each #FOMC meeting has brought enormous pre- and post-meeting volatility into the markets.
Tomorrow will likely be the same situation. | 299 |
| 19 |  #article
The Big Front-Run
The longer I trade crypto and study market dynamics and its psychology, the more I notice just how unstable, sensitive, and fragile this speculative market really is.
But above all, it’s built on one thing: the psychology of being first, being "smarter than the rest", and being "faster than the rest". That’s why front-running is the dominant mindset here. Nothing unusual about it, this is the psychology of any market. The difference is that in crypto, it’s hyper-exaggerated and made fully visible by liquidity issues, whales and their games, market makers, and CEX exchanges.
Why bring this up now?
Because I believe we’re on the edge of a new front-running "round".
Let’s outline the bullish factors and the ones traders already seem to have priced in:
➡️3 rate cuts (September/October/November)
➡️ETF deadlines (October–November 2025)
➡️ETH ETF deadline (October–November 2025)
Bearish/top factors:
🚨the 4-year financial cycle (if you believe in it) ending in Q4 2025 (by December)
🚨BTC halving cycles and their historical price dynamics
So where does the front-run come into play?
🔈 The consensus view is:
- top by the end of this year
- bearish September, optimistic November (cycles)
- three months of positive news flow thanks to the rate cuts in September/October/November
Now add in front-running psychology. Subtract at least one month (since everyone wants to be earlier than everyone else) and you land in mid-October to early November as the period where front-run behaviour should kick into full force.
Since I don’t see any other strong narratives for the end of the year, market psychology will be more critical than ever in shaping what happens next.
How long can the bubble in S&P500/XAU/BTC keep inflating? Hard to say. But sentiment and psychology will need to be watched now with double the attention. | 285 |
| 20 |  September 14, 2025 | 236 |
