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Analytical Analysis of the Asset
dogwifhat (WIF): Perfect Tokenomics or Just a Meme?
I took WIF apart. The results were surprising.
Read more in the comments 👇
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Buying an asset for the NEAR Spot portfolio at $1 is of great interest in the medium term.
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📌There are two types of assets in the market:
Some are undervalued,
Others are overvalued.
📌 An asset is undervalued when it is worth less than it "should" be, based on market, fundamental, or historical data.
📌 An asset is overvalued when the price is too high relative to its actual value or average values.
📌How do you know if an asset is UNDERVALUED?
1. Fundamentals are stronger than the price
The project is alive and well, developing, the team is working, partnerships are emerging, but the price is fluctuating or falling.
Example:
The network is operational, fees are rising, the number of users is growing, but the token is still trading at the same price as last year. This is a warning sign.
📌2. Comparison with competitors (metrics)**
If a project:
- has the same or better technology,
- more users,
- higher volumes,
and its market capitalization is 2-3 times lower than its competitor's, there's reason to take a closer look.
Example:
Project A generates $10 million in commissions per month and is worth $100 million.
Project B generates $5 million in commissions and is worth $300 million.
Project A is undervalued, B is overvalued.
📌3. Historical levels
If an asset is currently cheaper than it was 80% of the time over the past 2-3 years, but the project isn't dead or a scam, it may be in the accumulation zone.
Example:
Bitcoin at $60,000 after $100,000 isn't necessarily undervalued.
However, if a project with a working network is trading at the same level as at the bottom of the previous bear market, that's interesting.
📌4. Market Cap Below TVL (for DeFi)
If a DeFi project has $1 billion in assets under management (TVL), but the token market cap is $50 million, that's odd. These things usually converge over time.
📌5. Whales are accumulating, but the price isn't rising
We saw this with the ETF inflows on February 24-25. Large players are entering, but the price is flat or falling—meaning they're collecting.
📌How do you know if an asset is OVERVALUED?
Hype Outpacing Reality**
The project has just launched, nothing is working, but the market cap is already that of a market veteran.
Example:
A token has grown 10-fold in a month without any new products, just on news and listings.
📌Metrics are falling, the price is rising
There are fewer users, revenue is falling, and the price is rising. This means the market is living in the past or in hopes. 📌Institutionalists are taking profits
If we see large outflows from exchanges to cold wallets, that's one thing (hold). But if there are large transfers to exchanges, they may be preparing to sell.
📌All-time highs without a fundamental update**
The asset has reached its ATH (all-time high), but there has been no real improvement. This is often the distribution zone.
📌Comparison with peers
If a competitor with better performance is cheaper, it means it's overheated.
📌A simple real-life example:
| Asset | Fundamental | Price | Withdrawal |
| A | The network is growing, fees are increasing, the team is active
| At the bottom of 2023 | Undervalued
| B | No users, no fees, but the token is trending | +500% in a month | Overvalued |
📌The main secret
Undervaluation doesn't mean "straight up." An asset can lie on the bottom for months while the whales are buying.
📌Overvalued doesn't mean "straight down."
It can still rise while the crowd and FOMO are still around.
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Twitter has opened up advertising—that's a plus for the market.
But now we'll be bombarded not only with information, but also with junk.
Scam projects will also buy their way into the feed.
Filter, check, and don't fall for the "100x in an evening" hype.
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📌Twitter lifted the ban on crypto advertising
It was banned since 2018. Now it's allowed, but with the Paid Partnership label.
What does this mean for us?
• Crypto projects will officially start driving traffic
• Exchanges, tokens, and NFTs are back in the feed
• It's quiet in the EU for now, but globally, the ice has broken
Why is this happening now?
(ETF inflows on February 24-25 speak for themselves).
Now it's time to warm up the public.
First, the whales come in, then the advertising, then the hype, then the movement.
The buzz will grow.
But the fact is: crypto is being brought back into the spotlight.
This means the next few months could be interesting.
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Limit orders for long positions of 20k ETH have been removed from the Binance order book.
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🚨 Trading on March 6: Risk aversion
The market opened mixed:
- Global stock indices are down (-1-2%)
- Oil and gold are showing strong growth (+2-7%)
- Bitcoin is holding above $67,000, not following stocks
Why isn't BTC falling?
The previous four months have already yielded -50%, and the weak hands have left.
Whales have gained positions in the $58-63,000 zone (ETF inflows on February 24-25)
Now is the phase of holding back and spoofing, not actual selling.
The $65,000 zone is the mainstay. If we hold, we'll wait for news; if we lose, we'll fly to $60,000.
BTC is holding up well. Instead of falling along with stocks, BTC is simply standing aside and waiting for a driver. As long as we hold $65k, we're alive.
现已上线!2025 年 Telegram 研究 — 年度关键洞察 
