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537
📌 BTC: ENCOURAGING, BUT MANIPULATIVE
Bitcoin started the year with growth – a 5-day recovery to the 91-93k range began on January 1st. At first glance, everything looks positive, but the market is too cautious here to believe in a clean reversal.
📌What's important to understand: The downward slope since October has NOT been formally broken.
Liquidity was low in the last two weeks of December – sellers didn't leave, they simply reduced their activity.
📌Momentum +6-7% (85-87k → 91-93k)
This looks like a technical rebound, not a trend change.
📌The 93-99k zone is key
This is where:
a downtrend is underway
past distributions are located
liquidity is concentrated
👉This is where it would be logical to return sellers
📌 Why the movement looks like manipulation
The rise started exactly on January 1st (psychology)
No strong volumes
The price is returning to the range, not breaking out of it
No trend breakout
Classic pattern:
give hope → accumulate liquidity → decide the fate of the movement
📌Key idea
Time is not the deciding factor here.
Buyers' aggression and a quick breakout above 100k are needed.
Without:
momentum
volumes
a consolidation above 99-101k
The rise risks remaining a simple pullback in a bearish structure.
My position
I'm watching.
No rush.
There's no ideal entry point here—the whole year is ahead.
📌 Either the market confirms strength above 100k,
📌 or sellers return from the 93-99k zone.
Haste is the enemy right now.
537
🌍 THE WORLD ON THE EDGE OF TWO SYSTEMIC CRISES: CHIPS AND OIL
📌Taiwan – a critical hub for technology
90% of the most advanced chips (<7 nm) are produced in Taiwan (TSMC)
An island 160 km from China, which officially considers it its territory
The entire global economy depends on a fragile geopolitical line
The US is building factories to reduce dependence, but it's expensive and too late
What will happen if China goes after Taiwan?
TSMC shutdown → collapse of global supply chains
Crisis in AI, telecom, auto, and defense
Global recession and hyperinflation in tech goods
Investors evaluate Apple, Nvidia, and AMD stocks, but ignore the main risk: Taiwan
📌 Oil and choke points
Venezuela: production fell from 3.2 million to ~0.8–1 million barrels per day
Recovery requires $80–100 billion and 5–10 years
China is critically dependent on cheap oil from Venezuela and Iran
The US can block oil flows without outright war through sanctions, insurance, and route control
Key choke points: Strait of Malacca, Red Sea.
📌It is impossible to quickly restore production and provide China with cheap oil—the shortage will persist for years.
📌China has begun large-scale military exercises around Taiwan.
A semicircle is forming around the island: maritime, air, and potentially cyberspace.
The Taiwan Strait median line has been breached → pressure on territorial waters.
TSMC is under direct risk.
Disruptions in chip logistics and increased insurance/transportation costs are possible.
Potential outflow of foreign specialists.
Global supply chains are under threat: a domino effect for tech and auto.
Risk of a systemic shock comparable to or worse than a pandemic.
📌Taiwan is the most important point in the global economy.
Venezuela/Iran + choke points—China's strategic dependence on oil.
537
TRUMP: We're going to force our biggest oil companies, the biggest in the world, to spend billions of dollars to repair Venezuela's badly damaged oil infrastructure and start generating profits for the United States.
Venezuela is the world's largest oil reserve country, and that was clearly the main reason for today's operation.
537
📌President Trump said the United States intends to take control of Venezuela until a "safe, orderly, and measured transition of power" is ensured.
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