Forexomni

I've received numerous inquiries about the potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on EURUSD. From a professional standpoint, the structure is developing, but there is no confirmed breakdown yet—price is still holding above the neckline support. Until we see a decisive close below that level with follow-through, it's too early to assume sellers have taken control. Patterns only gain validity with confirmation, and right now, this remains a potential scenario—not a trade signal. Stay disciplined and wait for the market to show its hand.

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USDJPY on the 4H chart has completed a clear five-wave decline followed by a corrective ABC retracement, which has now broken its internal trendline—confirming potential for a new impulsive drop. Technically, this structure signals the start of wave (3) down. Fundamentally, dollar weakness from soft economic data and rising Fed cut expectations contrasts with BOJ’s hawkish tone, favoring further JPY strength. Risk-off sentiment adds pressure, supporting a bearish continuation.

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The 4H XAUUSD chart illustrates a completed five-wave impulsive structure followed by a classic ABC corrective pattern, consistent with Elliott Wave Theory. The initial impulse (waves 1 through 5) reflects strong bullish momentum likely driven by escalating inflation concerns and persistent geopolitical tensions that spurred safe-haven demand for gold. Post wave 5, a corrective decline unfolded in a downward-sloping channel forming waves A, B, and C, signaling temporary profit-taking and consolidation as markets priced in expectations of a potential Fed pause. The correction completed at wave C, setting the stage for a new bullish impulse where wave 1 initiated the reversal, wave 2 provided a shallow retracement, and the market has now progressed through wave 3 with wave 4 forming a minor pullback. We anticipate the final wave 5 to target the prior resistance zone near as fundamental support grows from recent weak U.S. macro data and increasing speculation around rate cuts, adding fuel to renewed bullish sentiment in gold.

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The USD/CHF pair has continued its bearish momentum, currently trading near 0.8230 as shown on the daily chart, which aligns with the completion of a Wave (4) corrective structure under the Elliott Wave principle. The technical setup indicates that the market is now preparing for the final Wave (5) leg to the downside, suggesting further weakness toward the 0.8000 or possibly 0.7800 levels. This move is being supported by a broader bearish impulse sequence, despite the upbeat US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for April. Interestingly, the US Dollar failed to gain traction from the strong employment report, likely due to market reactions to President Trump’s public pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates via Truth Social. Meanwhile, investors are now eyeing the upcoming Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Monday, which could further impact the Swiss Franc's strength and drive the next leg of this anticipated downward wave.

Technically, Gold (XAUUSD) has completed a classic 5-wave impulse followed by an ABC corrective structure within a well-defined falling wedge—a strong bullish reversal pattern. The recent breakout above the wedge and the key support-turned-resistance zone around 3280 confirms bullish momentum, targeting 3400 and beyond. Fundamentally, increasing geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Fed are supporting gold as a safe haven, with expectations of rate cuts adding further upside pressure. As long as price holds above the breakout zone, buyers remain in control.

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